The 30-share index, Sensex plunged 365.78 points, or 2% to 17,923.57 for the week ended Feb. 24, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dropped 135 points, or 2.43%, to 5,429.3 during the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “After a positive rally over the last seven weeks, markets witnessed first negative weekly close. Markets could witness further correction and stabilise at lower levels. The correction in the equity markets that began this week could continue, although at a lesser pace unless FIIs start pumping in money in a big way. Important support to watch for on Nifty is 5,400-5,350 levels while resistance is at 5,535-5,585 levels”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “Reversing its rising trend of past weeks, the Sensex shed 2% for the week. Indian equities under performed the global ones for the week. The rally of the past two months now appears to be maturing. Key factors to watch out for would be the Iran imbroglio and its impact on crude oil price, the second round of LTRO in Europe, the outcome of state elections and finally, the budget in mid-march. We recommend stock specific approach at current juncture”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting modest losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a very volatile and negative session and closed below the important psychological levels. Level wise, closing Nifty below the threshold 5450 and Sensex below the 18000 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed negative sentiments and all the large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap segments were closed on a negative note. Despite a volatile performance, Nifty displayed stability and remained above its vital 50, 100 and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5036.72, 5019.79 & 5171.82 but closed below 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 5494.39 and 5450.60. These levels will act as support and resistance in the forthcoming sessions. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected and closed at 24.82 yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 60.03 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness some profit booking in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session n Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5400-5500. If sustained below the given range it may test 5350-5330 zone. However, 5540-60 may act as a strong resistance zone in Nifty. Bank Nifty if traded below 10500, may probably test 10300, while 10200 may act as crucial support level”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After 4 weeks buying, Nifty showed profit booking. Nifty made piercing pattern on weekly charts, which shows that bears are trying to enter from resistance at 5625 levels. Selling pressure may be continuing below 5400 levels. On the other hand, if Nifty holds 5400 levels then recovery may also be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5400. If Nifty shows strength above 5400 levels then we may see rally 5500/5550/5625/5750. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5400 levels then selling pressure till 5325/5250/5160 may also be seen”.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “After a positive rally over the last seven weeks, markets witnessed first negative weekly close. Markets could witness further correction and stabilise at lower levels. The correction in the equity markets that began this week could continue, although at a lesser pace unless FIIs start pumping in money in a big way. Important support to watch for on Nifty is 5,400-5,350 levels while resistance is at 5,535-5,585 levels”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “Reversing its rising trend of past weeks, the Sensex shed 2% for the week. Indian equities under performed the global ones for the week. The rally of the past two months now appears to be maturing. Key factors to watch out for would be the Iran imbroglio and its impact on crude oil price, the second round of LTRO in Europe, the outcome of state elections and finally, the budget in mid-march. We recommend stock specific approach at current juncture”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting modest losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a very volatile and negative session and closed below the important psychological levels. Level wise, closing Nifty below the threshold 5450 and Sensex below the 18000 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed negative sentiments and all the large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap segments were closed on a negative note. Despite a volatile performance, Nifty displayed stability and remained above its vital 50, 100 and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5036.72, 5019.79 & 5171.82 but closed below 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 5494.39 and 5450.60. These levels will act as support and resistance in the forthcoming sessions. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected and closed at 24.82 yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 60.03 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness some profit booking in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session n Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5400-5500. If sustained below the given range it may test 5350-5330 zone. However, 5540-60 may act as a strong resistance zone in Nifty. Bank Nifty if traded below 10500, may probably test 10300, while 10200 may act as crucial support level”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After 4 weeks buying, Nifty showed profit booking. Nifty made piercing pattern on weekly charts, which shows that bears are trying to enter from resistance at 5625 levels. Selling pressure may be continuing below 5400 levels. On the other hand, if Nifty holds 5400 levels then recovery may also be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5400. If Nifty shows strength above 5400 levels then we may see rally 5500/5550/5625/5750. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5400 levels then selling pressure till 5325/5250/5160 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Sell | 5490-5510 | 5430 | 5530 |
For the Week | Buy | 5370-5400 | 5475-5520 | 5340 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Market has been correcting for past three days after touching the high of 5629.95 levels on 22nd Feb. Nifty lost almost 200 points in a short span of period and the correction seems to be overdone. Technical recovery can be expected at lower levels of 5400-5375.Global developments related to Greece and US economy will continue to influence market sentiments”.
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday 5433-5451-5477-5496 would be sell levels. Weak Markets won’t cross 5464. Above 5496 nifty could test 5521 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5545-5565-5593-5648-5948. Nifty has support at 5405 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5364-5204-5172-5076-4947-4766”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Internationally the Greece crisis has been averted and oil is giving sleepless nights to policy makers in countries like India. Domestically, all eyes are on Mar 6th - the state election results date. In isolation, the election is unlikely to be a game changer for financial markets, but a favourable verdict is a pre-requisite for a return to a reformist economic agenda for the economy. A favourable result is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a sustainable macro turnaround”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty took a breather from the highs of 5630 and is currently trading close to its crucial support of 5420. A sustained move below these levels may halt the ongoing momentum in the index and the Nifty may trade subdued. On the downside, immediate support for the Nifty lies at 5300 while the highest Call base of 5600 should impose significant resistance. The Banking index has crucial support at 10500. Breach of these levels may trigger further downsides in the Bank Nifty. On the higher side, 11100 is likely to act as a stiff resistance due to higher Call writing”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “F&O contract (February series) expired 6.30% higher with 66% rollover in Nifty and 75% as market wide rollover. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.57 levels, which indicate put writing. Options open interest concentration has shifted to 5500 and 5600-strike call with the highest open interest of above 30 lakh & 28 lakh shares. Among the put options, the 5300-strike put option has the total open interest of 51 lakh shares which is the highest open interest among all Options. Based on Nifty rollovers and Nifty Option concentration, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5300 to 5600 for the next two weeks. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 23.32% while the average IV of put options closed at 23.13%. On the technical front, the last week's profit booking was on the back of rising volumes indicating further weakness till 5300 levels. Further, positive crossovers among medium and long term averages confirm the positive outlook in the long to medium term however short term indicators seems to be overbought. On the daily charts, the index should sustain above the 5200 levels for the continuation of the current trend. Hereafter, further crossing of 5600 level will lead to new Bull Run letting Nifty to move to 5900 levels”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically we must assume that the up move that we have seen from closer to 4600 levels to 5600 zones seems to have stalled and so we should trade sideways to a bit bearish and we cannot rule out sluggishness and a slide down to around 5200 zones in the days to come. From a trading point of view I would trade short as long as 5540 is not beached on the upside. The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5200 and the resistance at 5550”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “This week indices corrected after nearing their resistance zone of 18756/5645. We are now observing that this resistance zone almost coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the fall from 21109/6339 (November 5, 2010) to 15135/4531 (December 23, 2011). Further, we are observing a negative placement of ‘Daily RSI-Smoothened’, ‘3 & 8 daily EMA’ and ‘Weekly Stochastic’ oscillators. This indicates possibility of a further correction or consolidation. At present, indices have a decent support zone around its ‘Daily 20-EMA’ level of 17720/5370. The negative impact of above mentioned technical observations will be seen only if indices sustain below 17720/5370 level. In this scenario, the possibility of testing 17500-17200/5300-5200 levels cannot be ruled out. Conversely, the immediate resistance is at 18200/5522 level. A move beyond this level may push indices higher to test 18293-18524/5561-5630 levels. In the short term, markets have a stiff resistance zone of 18756-18524/5645-5630 levels. If indices manage to cross this resistance zone then they are likely to test important resistance of 18945/5702 level”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “For those who missed the rally, such corrections could be a blessing in disguise. The Indian market could consolidate in a sideways fashion in the near term. Most participants won’t want to take a chance in the run up to important domestic events next month. At the same time, uncertainties over the European debt crisis and geopolitical tensions persist. On should keep a close eye on FII flows, which have been quite robust so far. Q3 GDP data and LTRO-2 by the ECB will among the events to keep on one’s radar for next week. We will need further reforms and sustained moderation in inflation for the Indian markets to sustain any up-move”.(source: myiris)
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “After making a high of 5629.95 on last Wednesday, Nifty has given a correction of almost 4% in last three successive trading sessions. Now it is expected to get a strong support at 5320. If it breaches 5320, it may further go down and take support near 5200. However, the medium term trend of Nifty is positive and a breach of 5630 would open the gate for 5750 in the short term. For the coming week, first support of Nifty at 5320 and the resistance is 5510. If Nifty breaks 5320, it may further go down to 5270 and then 5200. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5510, the of 5560-5630 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5600-5650 in the upper side and 5300-5250 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “5400 will hold critical for the week ahead, on a closing basis. The lower support below this is expected to be 5295, followed by the 200-days moving Average of 5175. On upside, the first resistance is seen at 5575, and the second and short-term critical resistance will be 5650”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing negative crossover in weekly chart and short term stochastics are showing highly over bought zone, which indicate resistance is good for selling opportunity. Nifty closed above the 200 day moving average (5180) indicating the long term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 5300-5210. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative with trading range between 5210-5540 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5485-5540 and supports are at 5300-5210. If Nifty trades above 5550, it may take resistance at 5700. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5485-5540 and supports at 5300-5210. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 18300-18500 and supports at 17500-17225. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10935-11190 and supports at 10180-10000”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “Nifty finally the much awaited correction has come and we might see further lower levels of around 5,300-5,250 is on the cards before the resumption of an uptrend. Our last week’s strategy of buying deep out of the money March puts (5,200 and 5,300 strikes) in order to hedge the portfolio has paid off and we are maintaining our stance of holding onto them. Nifty held onto the last week’s suggested range of 5,400-5,650. Range for the coming week is advocated between 5,600-5,250”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5320 levels will act as the Major Support on the lower side. If Nifty closes below this level, then probably the next logical support can be seen at 5170 levels. On the upside, if Nifty manages to sustain above 5550 levels, probably 5700 would be achievable target in near term”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Going forward, 5,660 remains a crucial resistance for Nifty and on the downside, 5,365 remains a support”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “The Nifty is expected to get support at 5,383 and 5,350 while the resistance is there at 5,498 and 5,567 levels”. (source: myiris)
FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE”
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday 5433-5451-5477-5496 would be sell levels. Weak Markets won’t cross 5464. Above 5496 nifty could test 5521 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5545-5565-5593-5648-5948. Nifty has support at 5405 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5364-5204-5172-5076-4947-4766”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Internationally the Greece crisis has been averted and oil is giving sleepless nights to policy makers in countries like India. Domestically, all eyes are on Mar 6th - the state election results date. In isolation, the election is unlikely to be a game changer for financial markets, but a favourable verdict is a pre-requisite for a return to a reformist economic agenda for the economy. A favourable result is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a sustainable macro turnaround”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty took a breather from the highs of 5630 and is currently trading close to its crucial support of 5420. A sustained move below these levels may halt the ongoing momentum in the index and the Nifty may trade subdued. On the downside, immediate support for the Nifty lies at 5300 while the highest Call base of 5600 should impose significant resistance. The Banking index has crucial support at 10500. Breach of these levels may trigger further downsides in the Bank Nifty. On the higher side, 11100 is likely to act as a stiff resistance due to higher Call writing”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “F&O contract (February series) expired 6.30% higher with 66% rollover in Nifty and 75% as market wide rollover. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.57 levels, which indicate put writing. Options open interest concentration has shifted to 5500 and 5600-strike call with the highest open interest of above 30 lakh & 28 lakh shares. Among the put options, the 5300-strike put option has the total open interest of 51 lakh shares which is the highest open interest among all Options. Based on Nifty rollovers and Nifty Option concentration, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5300 to 5600 for the next two weeks. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 23.32% while the average IV of put options closed at 23.13%. On the technical front, the last week's profit booking was on the back of rising volumes indicating further weakness till 5300 levels. Further, positive crossovers among medium and long term averages confirm the positive outlook in the long to medium term however short term indicators seems to be overbought. On the daily charts, the index should sustain above the 5200 levels for the continuation of the current trend. Hereafter, further crossing of 5600 level will lead to new Bull Run letting Nifty to move to 5900 levels”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically we must assume that the up move that we have seen from closer to 4600 levels to 5600 zones seems to have stalled and so we should trade sideways to a bit bearish and we cannot rule out sluggishness and a slide down to around 5200 zones in the days to come. From a trading point of view I would trade short as long as 5540 is not beached on the upside. The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5200 and the resistance at 5550”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “This week indices corrected after nearing their resistance zone of 18756/5645. We are now observing that this resistance zone almost coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the fall from 21109/6339 (November 5, 2010) to 15135/4531 (December 23, 2011). Further, we are observing a negative placement of ‘Daily RSI-Smoothened’, ‘3 & 8 daily EMA’ and ‘Weekly Stochastic’ oscillators. This indicates possibility of a further correction or consolidation. At present, indices have a decent support zone around its ‘Daily 20-EMA’ level of 17720/5370. The negative impact of above mentioned technical observations will be seen only if indices sustain below 17720/5370 level. In this scenario, the possibility of testing 17500-17200/5300-5200 levels cannot be ruled out. Conversely, the immediate resistance is at 18200/5522 level. A move beyond this level may push indices higher to test 18293-18524/5561-5630 levels. In the short term, markets have a stiff resistance zone of 18756-18524/5645-5630 levels. If indices manage to cross this resistance zone then they are likely to test important resistance of 18945/5702 level”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “For those who missed the rally, such corrections could be a blessing in disguise. The Indian market could consolidate in a sideways fashion in the near term. Most participants won’t want to take a chance in the run up to important domestic events next month. At the same time, uncertainties over the European debt crisis and geopolitical tensions persist. On should keep a close eye on FII flows, which have been quite robust so far. Q3 GDP data and LTRO-2 by the ECB will among the events to keep on one’s radar for next week. We will need further reforms and sustained moderation in inflation for the Indian markets to sustain any up-move”.(source: myiris)
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “After making a high of 5629.95 on last Wednesday, Nifty has given a correction of almost 4% in last three successive trading sessions. Now it is expected to get a strong support at 5320. If it breaches 5320, it may further go down and take support near 5200. However, the medium term trend of Nifty is positive and a breach of 5630 would open the gate for 5750 in the short term. For the coming week, first support of Nifty at 5320 and the resistance is 5510. If Nifty breaks 5320, it may further go down to 5270 and then 5200. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5510, the of 5560-5630 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5600-5650 in the upper side and 5300-5250 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “5400 will hold critical for the week ahead, on a closing basis. The lower support below this is expected to be 5295, followed by the 200-days moving Average of 5175. On upside, the first resistance is seen at 5575, and the second and short-term critical resistance will be 5650”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing negative crossover in weekly chart and short term stochastics are showing highly over bought zone, which indicate resistance is good for selling opportunity. Nifty closed above the 200 day moving average (5180) indicating the long term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 5300-5210. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative with trading range between 5210-5540 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5485-5540 and supports are at 5300-5210. If Nifty trades above 5550, it may take resistance at 5700. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5485-5540 and supports at 5300-5210. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 18300-18500 and supports at 17500-17225. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10935-11190 and supports at 10180-10000”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “Nifty finally the much awaited correction has come and we might see further lower levels of around 5,300-5,250 is on the cards before the resumption of an uptrend. Our last week’s strategy of buying deep out of the money March puts (5,200 and 5,300 strikes) in order to hedge the portfolio has paid off and we are maintaining our stance of holding onto them. Nifty held onto the last week’s suggested range of 5,400-5,650. Range for the coming week is advocated between 5,600-5,250”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5320 levels will act as the Major Support on the lower side. If Nifty closes below this level, then probably the next logical support can be seen at 5170 levels. On the upside, if Nifty manages to sustain above 5550 levels, probably 5700 would be achievable target in near term”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Going forward, 5,660 remains a crucial resistance for Nifty and on the downside, 5,365 remains a support”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “The Nifty is expected to get support at 5,383 and 5,350 while the resistance is there at 5,498 and 5,567 levels”. (source: myiris)
FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE”
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