The 30-share index, Sensex climbed 540.66 points, or 3.05% to 18,289.35 for the week ended Feb. 17, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty surged 182.7 points, or 3.39%, to 5,564.3 during the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the underlying trend remaining up on all time frames (Short term, intermediate and long term), traders will need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the immediate supports of 5500-5475 in the coming week. A close below these supports could lead to some more weakness in the markets. On the upside, our immediate targets are at the next intermediate highs of 5702”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “For the week, the Indian markets rallied 3% vs a largely flattish trend for developed markets. The Sensex has rallied over 20% in less than two months, propelled largely by global liquidity. FIIs have already invested close to USD 4.5 billion in 2012 as risk aversion declined for emerging market equities. The strength of the US economy, softening in domestic inflation has been the key positives. In our view, so long as the Eurozone leaders are able to avert default by Greece, markets may not correct. Action may shift to from the frontlines to mid-caps. Specific stocks that may be affected from the upcoming Union Budget could also see action. Sector specific strategy needs to be followed. Some profit booking can be done in Capital Goods and Utilities”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting exalted gains in last session, today, Nifty displayed firmness and continued the ongoing momentum. After a gap up start, indices closed with good gains. Level wise, closing above the threshold 5550 levels, still may support the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed profit booking at last and all segments, barring large caps, closed on negative note. On account of this, bulls lost the control to the bears, because of which market breadth closed in red. Buoyant by a recovery, Nifty remained above its vital 9, 14, 50, 100 and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5436, 5380, 4978, 4997 and 5172. VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, moved a little and closed at 24+, thus it indicates modest surge in the volatility in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 78.39 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some volatile movements in forthcoming session”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty closed the week in green for 7th consecutive week. Bulls are having control at the moment and rally has been liquidity driven. Nifty Feb future expiry due in this week and volatility may be seen. On upside, Nifty may face some resistance in 5700-5800 zone. On downside, Nifty has support in 5400-5300 zone. Traders may continue to take delivery based long position in good stocks with stoploss. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5550. If Nifty shows strength above 5550 levels then we may see rally 5600/5675/5750. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5550 levels then selling pressure till 5500/5450/5350/5300 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 5570-5590 | 5635 | 5550 |
For the Week | Buy | 5550-5580 | 5680-5700 | 5520 |
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Tuesday 5575-5593 would be sell levels. Weak Markets won’t cross 5583. Above 5593 nifty could test 5060 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5648-5948. Nifty has support at 5545 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5499-5460-5429”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty maintained its upside momentum and added another 42 points to its value. The upside momentum remains intact as long as Nifty trades above the level of 5400. Intraday supports for Nifty are placed at 5530 and below that 5480 is a very strong support. On the higher side the level of 5610 and beyond that 5650 are intraday resistances. There is a possibility of profit booking near the 5650 level as it is the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level of the entire decline of past fourteen months. We recommend holding on Nifty long positions with a stop loss of 5400”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “While the run up is sharp from the distress levels, there is still a lot of steam left as far mid-caps are concerned. We believe the mid-caps are likely to outperform and therefore recommend Investors to hold on to quality mid-caps and not sell them in a hurry. MCX IPO is hitting the markets next week. The offer price appears to be reasonable indicating possible listing gains as it would enjoy scarcity premium in the secondary markets post listing”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Continuance of positive movement is expected in the Nifty till it holds above 5450. In the short-term, 5750 is expected to act as a strong resistance for the Nifty. Otherwise, the Nifty may continue to consolidate in the range of 5460-5750 Banking index witnessed increase in momentum and saw the largest weekly gain of the previous seven weeks of continuous rally led by SBI that gained around 12% weekly. On the higher side, 11900-12050 is likely to act as a resistance and on the lower side 10800 should act as a support breaching which long liquidation could be seen from momentum players who are riding the trend”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Nifty is expected to expire in the range of 5500-5700 levels this Expiry. The options concentration continues to be at 5400-strike put option with an open interest of above 68 lakh shares. This is followed by the 5500-strike put option with above 57 lakh shares. Among call options the 5600-strike holds the highest open interest of above 55 lakh shares. Above discussed option data indicates put writing at 5500 and 5400 strikes and call writing at 5600 strikes. The put-call ratio of open interest increased closing at 2.09 levels. The implied volatility (IV) of call options closed lower 19.93% while the average IV of put options ended at 19.15%. Nifty VIX has dropped in Feb month and is expected to remain range bound in the short term. Nifty index may find intermediate support around 5450-5500 levels and resistance near 5650 level”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the trend is still intact up, technically our target of 5646 stays we are now into a truncated week and just 3 days into F&O expiry, the bar generated for the day is an indecisive bar which basically means that the up move could stall here and the crucial level to watch would be a close below 5540. From a trading point of view I would trade long as long as 5540 holds”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “After a consolidation of nearly seven consecutive sessions, finally, indices managed to break out from the ‘Horizontal Resistance Line’ placed at 17908/5400 level. Strong momentum was witnessed almost throughout the week as bulls refused to take the foot off the pedal and relentless buying from FII's pushed markets higher. We are now observing a ‘Spinning Top pattern on the daily chart. This pattern indicates possibility of some minor consolidation but requires a confirmation in the form of a closing below the low of the pattern i.e. 18234/5545. In this scenario, we may witness a loss of current positive momentum. Hence, indices may slide towards lower support levels of 18043-17627/5483-5341 levels. The said pattern will be negated on a closing above of the high of the ‘Spinning Top’ formation. As a result markets are likely to move higher to test next target of 18756-18945/5645-5702 levels. Traders are advised to exercise caution in view of the over-bought position of the RSI oscillator and should trade with strict stop-loss”.INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets closed with significant gains for the seventh consecutive week and barring oil & gas, all sectoral and both benchmark indices closed positive. Realty, power, auto and banking remained the lead performers and IT and metal, too, provided support to the indices. For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5700-5750 in the upper side and 5300-5250 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The critical resistance range for NSE Nifty for the week ahead is expected at 5610-5650 range. Any major upside will happen only if the index manages to hold above this. In such a scenario, the upper resistance for the week ahead will be 5780”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing positive crossover in weekly chart and short term stochastics are showing highly over bought zone, which indicate support is good for buying opportunity. Nifty closed above the 200 day moving average (5165) indicating the long term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 5465-5410. The market setup is somewhat sideways to positive with trading range between 5400-5700 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5660-5740 and supports are at 5465-5410. If Nifty trades below 5400, it may take supports at 5300. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5660-5740 and supports at 5465-5410. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 18600-18830 and supports at 18050-17830. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 11300-11900 and supports at 10800-10500”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “Surprisingly enough Nifty is maintaining its uptrend and refusing to go down which does suggests Nifty might be heading to higher levels of 5620-5,740. We are of the view that, Volatility will be high in the coming week and any meaningful correction can be bought till the time Nifty manages to hold on to 5,430 levels. We are recommending buying deep out of the money March puts (5,200 and 5,300 strikes) in order to hedge the portfolio. Range for the coming week is advocated between 5,450-5,740”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “The volatility may continue for the next week and Nifty may see next resistance near 5750 levels once crossed and closed above 5600 mark. The lower levels or pullback to this Bull Run is also unavoidable which may take Nifty near 5400 if closes below psychological 5500 mark”.
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