The 30-share index, Sensex plunged 286.77 points, or 1.6% to 17,636.8 for the week ended Mar. 02, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dropped 69.95 points, or 1.29%, to 5,359.35 during the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets ending marginally higher, traders will need to see if there is any follow through buying happening in the coming sessions. Immediate resistances for the Nifty are at 5400-5450. Downside supports are at 5300-5268”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting two day’s weak session today Nifty closed with positive bias after a huge volatility. Level wise, closing Nifty below the threshold 5380 and Sensex below the 17650 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed mixed sentiments and the entire large cap closed positive while mid-cap and small-cap segments were closed negative. Despite a positive closing, Nifty closed well above its vital 50, 100 and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5106.82, 5045.16 & 5167.34. However nifty closed below 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 5418.46 and 5442.18. These levels will act as support and resistance in the forthcoming sessions. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected and closed at 27.84 which indicate more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 52.9515 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness range bound with positive bias in forthcoming sessions”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is again in a range 5290-5410. However, below the given range 5266 and 5220 are good supports while 5454 is a strong resistance levels. Bank Nifty Future may trade in a range 10350-10770, while 10152 and 10250 may act as a strong support level”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Markets are likely to be highly volatile in the month of March as important data and events are lined up during this month. Starting from 5-6th March, when the UP poll results will be declared, important events like Monetary Policy review (15th March) and Union budget (16th March) will lead to cautious to jittery sentiments on the bourses. Apart from domestic events, global developments too will continue to influence the market sentiments. The medium to long term trend of the market continues to be bullish”.
KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Trade long in Nifty above 5,350 levels, else from 5,320 levels with stop loss placed at 5,300 for targets of 5,380 and 5,400 levels. Alternatively, trade short if Nifty trades below 5,300 levels targeting support levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Next major event is the UP election results which will be out on 6th of March and if the Congress or its allies wins the elections then the markets will take it positively and vice versa. Going forward Nifty is having resistance at 5,396 and 5,433 while support is there at 5,318 and 5,278 levels breached and sustained then we may see a retest of the recent high of 5,629 and higher levels in next few days”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty traded in the range of 5300-5450 last week with high volatility. A directional movement is expected in the index on the breach of this range. Positive bias may be assumed if the Nifty is able to surpass 5450. On the downside, immediate support is expected around 5300. Below these levels, the 200 DMA of 5180 may be tested The Banking index has crucial support at its highest Put base of 10000 levels below which 9800 levels may be tested. On the higher side, above the immediate resistance of 10600, the Bank Nifty may move towards 11000”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Consolidation and profit booking continued for the second week as Nifty Index closed 1% lower as compared to the last week. Nifty remained silent throughout the week and traded in range of 5250-5450 levels. Among put options, 5300, 5200 strikes put holds maximum open interest of above 68 lakh shares each, which is the highest open interest in any strike in current series. Having maximum open interest in at the money option indicates sharp move either side. On the call side, maximum option concentration is at 5500 & 5600 strikes, having open interest of more than 40 lakh shares each. Rising is also indicating uncertainty. Implied Volatility is expected to increase as State election results will be announced next week. The IV of ATM call options closed at 26.24% compared with 23.32% of last week. While the ATM IV of put options ended at 27.90%. Put-call ratio of open interest decreased to 1.32 from 1.57 last week indicating unwinding in out of money sold puts. Range of 5300-5500 will remain crucial for the next week with expectation of increase in volatility. If in any case Nifty closes below 5300 than the next possible support level is 5100”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market saw a low down to 5300 levels and has closed in the red for the week...technically nothing has changed as yet and we could still see a slide down to around 5200 zones and stiff resistance exits near 5450. From a trading point of view I would trade short as long as 5450 is not taken out on the upside”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Broadly speaking, markets are trading in a range of 18001 to 17381/5459 to 5268. A breakout from the mentioned trading range, on either side, is likely to dictate a clear direction in coming weeks. Therefore, if indices manage to sustain above the weekly high of 18001/5459, then we may witness a positive momentum, which would push indices higher to retest recent swing high of 18524/5630. On the downside, level may provide decent support for the markets. A word of caution, the weekly ‘Stochastic’ oscillator is still negatively poised. The impact of this technical tool may come into action on the violation of this week's low of 17381/5268 level. In this scenario, selling pressure is likely to intensify further and may drag indices to test ‘200-day SMA’ support zone of 17230-17180/5210-5167 level”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Investor sentiment was hit partially by the ONGC share sale fiasco and higher crude oil prices. The Government’s deteriorating fiscal condition, sticky inflation, decelerating GDP growth, slowing FII inflows, uncertainty over State Elections and global problems are among the other factors affecting investor morale after two months of solid gains. Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the run up to the important events lined up later this month. The main indices may turn choppy as markets players digest one crucial event after the other. One must remain cautious and vigilant at this stage as the near-term outlook is uncertain, though in the medium to long-term the prospects for the Indian economy are bright”. (source: myiris)
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5500-5550 in the upper side and 5250-5200 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The range of 5490-5265 is expected to hold critical for NSE Nifty for the days ahead. With a lot of sentimental news flows hitting the market in the coming week, any break beyond the above mentioned range can stretch the direction further. The lower support is seen at 5165, which happens to be the 200-days moving average. On upside, the first resistance is expected at 5590”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing negative crossover in weekly chart and short term stochastics are showing highly over bought zone, which indicate resistance is good for selling opportunity. Nifty closed above the 200 day moving average (5170) indicating the long term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 5210-5170. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative with trading range between 5210-5450 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5450-5530 and supports are at 5210-5080. If Nifty trades above 5450, it may take resistance at 5530-5600. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5450-5530 and supports at 5210-5080. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17900-18200 and supports at 17250-16835. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10670-10935 and supports at 9900-9500”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “Nifty is yet to make up the mind in which direction it wants to move and we could get choppy market in coming week as we have lot of national and international events in coming fortnight. Nifty needs to hold onto 5,250 levels for the continuation of medium term trend. Failing to do so will open the window on the downside till 4,880 in coming months. Range for the Nifty for the coming week is advocated in the range of 5,510-5,250”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5170 levels will act as the Major Support on the lower side. If Nifty closes below this level, then probably the next logical support can be seen at 5000 levels. On the upside, if Nifty manages to sustain above 5550 levels, probably 5700 would be achievable target in near term”.
INDUSIND BANK: “Strategic investors can stay prepared to buy in three lots; one each at 5300-5275; 5200-5175 and 5100-5075 (with stop below 5000) for sharp reversal back into 5600-5650. Fleet footed traders can look to buy at 5315-5265 with tight stop below 5250 for 5525-5550. Having seen and heard the worst, the way forward is expected to be better with pressure on the Government and RBI to deliver growth supportive measures”.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets ending marginally higher, traders will need to see if there is any follow through buying happening in the coming sessions. Immediate resistances for the Nifty are at 5400-5450. Downside supports are at 5300-5268”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting two day’s weak session today Nifty closed with positive bias after a huge volatility. Level wise, closing Nifty below the threshold 5380 and Sensex below the 17650 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed mixed sentiments and the entire large cap closed positive while mid-cap and small-cap segments were closed negative. Despite a positive closing, Nifty closed well above its vital 50, 100 and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5106.82, 5045.16 & 5167.34. However nifty closed below 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 5418.46 and 5442.18. These levels will act as support and resistance in the forthcoming sessions. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected and closed at 27.84 which indicate more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 52.9515 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness range bound with positive bias in forthcoming sessions”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is again in a range 5290-5410. However, below the given range 5266 and 5220 are good supports while 5454 is a strong resistance levels. Bank Nifty Future may trade in a range 10350-10770, while 10152 and 10250 may act as a strong support level”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Markets are likely to be highly volatile in the month of March as important data and events are lined up during this month. Starting from 5-6th March, when the UP poll results will be declared, important events like Monetary Policy review (15th March) and Union budget (16th March) will lead to cautious to jittery sentiments on the bourses. Apart from domestic events, global developments too will continue to influence the market sentiments. The medium to long term trend of the market continues to be bullish”.
KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Trade long in Nifty above 5,350 levels, else from 5,320 levels with stop loss placed at 5,300 for targets of 5,380 and 5,400 levels. Alternatively, trade short if Nifty trades below 5,300 levels targeting support levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Next major event is the UP election results which will be out on 6th of March and if the Congress or its allies wins the elections then the markets will take it positively and vice versa. Going forward Nifty is having resistance at 5,396 and 5,433 while support is there at 5,318 and 5,278 levels breached and sustained then we may see a retest of the recent high of 5,629 and higher levels in next few days”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty traded in the range of 5300-5450 last week with high volatility. A directional movement is expected in the index on the breach of this range. Positive bias may be assumed if the Nifty is able to surpass 5450. On the downside, immediate support is expected around 5300. Below these levels, the 200 DMA of 5180 may be tested The Banking index has crucial support at its highest Put base of 10000 levels below which 9800 levels may be tested. On the higher side, above the immediate resistance of 10600, the Bank Nifty may move towards 11000”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Consolidation and profit booking continued for the second week as Nifty Index closed 1% lower as compared to the last week. Nifty remained silent throughout the week and traded in range of 5250-5450 levels. Among put options, 5300, 5200 strikes put holds maximum open interest of above 68 lakh shares each, which is the highest open interest in any strike in current series. Having maximum open interest in at the money option indicates sharp move either side. On the call side, maximum option concentration is at 5500 & 5600 strikes, having open interest of more than 40 lakh shares each. Rising is also indicating uncertainty. Implied Volatility is expected to increase as State election results will be announced next week. The IV of ATM call options closed at 26.24% compared with 23.32% of last week. While the ATM IV of put options ended at 27.90%. Put-call ratio of open interest decreased to 1.32 from 1.57 last week indicating unwinding in out of money sold puts. Range of 5300-5500 will remain crucial for the next week with expectation of increase in volatility. If in any case Nifty closes below 5300 than the next possible support level is 5100”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market saw a low down to 5300 levels and has closed in the red for the week...technically nothing has changed as yet and we could still see a slide down to around 5200 zones and stiff resistance exits near 5450. From a trading point of view I would trade short as long as 5450 is not taken out on the upside”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Broadly speaking, markets are trading in a range of 18001 to 17381/5459 to 5268. A breakout from the mentioned trading range, on either side, is likely to dictate a clear direction in coming weeks. Therefore, if indices manage to sustain above the weekly high of 18001/5459, then we may witness a positive momentum, which would push indices higher to retest recent swing high of 18524/5630. On the downside, level may provide decent support for the markets. A word of caution, the weekly ‘Stochastic’ oscillator is still negatively poised. The impact of this technical tool may come into action on the violation of this week's low of 17381/5268 level. In this scenario, selling pressure is likely to intensify further and may drag indices to test ‘200-day SMA’ support zone of 17230-17180/5210-5167 level”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Investor sentiment was hit partially by the ONGC share sale fiasco and higher crude oil prices. The Government’s deteriorating fiscal condition, sticky inflation, decelerating GDP growth, slowing FII inflows, uncertainty over State Elections and global problems are among the other factors affecting investor morale after two months of solid gains. Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the run up to the important events lined up later this month. The main indices may turn choppy as markets players digest one crucial event after the other. One must remain cautious and vigilant at this stage as the near-term outlook is uncertain, though in the medium to long-term the prospects for the Indian economy are bright”. (source: myiris)
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5500-5550 in the upper side and 5250-5200 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The range of 5490-5265 is expected to hold critical for NSE Nifty for the days ahead. With a lot of sentimental news flows hitting the market in the coming week, any break beyond the above mentioned range can stretch the direction further. The lower support is seen at 5165, which happens to be the 200-days moving average. On upside, the first resistance is expected at 5590”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing negative crossover in weekly chart and short term stochastics are showing highly over bought zone, which indicate resistance is good for selling opportunity. Nifty closed above the 200 day moving average (5170) indicating the long term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 5210-5170. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative with trading range between 5210-5450 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5450-5530 and supports are at 5210-5080. If Nifty trades above 5450, it may take resistance at 5530-5600. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5450-5530 and supports at 5210-5080. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17900-18200 and supports at 17250-16835. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10670-10935 and supports at 9900-9500”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “Nifty is yet to make up the mind in which direction it wants to move and we could get choppy market in coming week as we have lot of national and international events in coming fortnight. Nifty needs to hold onto 5,250 levels for the continuation of medium term trend. Failing to do so will open the window on the downside till 4,880 in coming months. Range for the Nifty for the coming week is advocated in the range of 5,510-5,250”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5170 levels will act as the Major Support on the lower side. If Nifty closes below this level, then probably the next logical support can be seen at 5000 levels. On the upside, if Nifty manages to sustain above 5550 levels, probably 5700 would be achievable target in near term”.
INDUSIND BANK: “Strategic investors can stay prepared to buy in three lots; one each at 5300-5275; 5200-5175 and 5100-5075 (with stop below 5000) for sharp reversal back into 5600-5650. Fleet footed traders can look to buy at 5315-5265 with tight stop below 5250 for 5525-5550. Having seen and heard the worst, the way forward is expected to be better with pressure on the Government and RBI to deliver growth supportive measures”.
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