"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 16.07.2012 TO 22.07.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex plunged 307.42 points, or 1.75% to 17,213.7 for the week ended July 13, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty declined 89.70 points, or 1.69%, to 5,227.25 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty drifting lower on Friday after breaking the lows of 5257 on Thursday, the underlying short term trend remains down. Immediate downside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 5200-5180”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “Looking ahead, inflation data for June, quarterly results and monsoons will hold the markets attention over the next two weeks. The Presidential elections will be over soon and expectations are that, the Government will move ahead with reforms. The actions of the Government will likely have a bearing on the RBI rate decision towards the end of the month. We maintain that, Government reforms are a pre-requisite for markets to move up sustainable”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Nifty has been trading in a narrow range for the last few sessions, the underlying tone remains negative. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty remain at 5300. Downside supports to watch are at 5200-5100. Inflation data on Monday, Presidential elections on Friday and first quarter earnings from Reliance Industries will be the key events to watch out for”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing strength for 5 consecutive weeks, Nifty closed in red. Selling pressure may be continuing below 5220 levels. On downside, Nifty has support in 5160-5100 zone, if Nifty respect support then recovery may also be seen. Volatility is expected to be continuing in market because of June quarter results. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5220. If Nifty shows strength above 5220 levels then we may see rally till 5270/5350/5440. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5220 levels then selling pressure till 5160/5100/5040 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5240-5210	5290/5325	5190
For the Week	Sell	5220-5180	5300-5370	5140

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goel): “For the coming week, Nifty is likely to consolidate in range 5,040-5,270 levels. On the upside strong resistance is around 5,350-5,380 level and if Nifty has to cross this level decisively for further rally to continue. Till then profit-booking is likely to continue on rallies. Earnings season is on and this will be the driving factor for further trend. For the week ahead, upcoming results are of Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Dr Reddy, Kotak Bank and Asian Paints among others”.

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (5235-5240)-(5250-5260) would be buy levels. Weak Markets won’t break 5246. Above 5260 Nifty could test 5267 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5300-5320-5444. Nifty has support at 5216 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5190-5160-5127-5059-4991-4895”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “In the immediate term the level of 5190 is now a critical support, If Nifty manage to sustain above 5190 then the downside may still be contained. However if 5190 is not respected then we may see it slide down further till 5150 to 5130 range. On the higher side the level of 5260 to 5280 would act as resistance for Nifty and it may continue to remain under selling pressure till the time it trades below 5300. Only sustenance above 5300 can take it higher till 5345 and beyond that 5400”.

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “The technical set up of the Nifty is deteriorating if there are no fresh triggers for the market in the near term, and then we may see Nifty falling further towards 5,178 -5,085 levels.  On the other hand market can bounce back once the crucial resistance at 5,300 has breached. Quarterly numbers of Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Mahindra, Hero Motor Corp, Dr. Reddy and Reliance Industries are expected to come with quarterly number during the next week will play crucial role for deciding the future market trends”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Going ahead, action on government policy reform especially in terms of increasing diesel prices immediately post the domestic Presidential elections and progress on resolution of the various power sector issues – bailout of discoms, power tariff hikes, increasing domestic availability of coal – would set the direction of the market. Markets are likely to be in a wait and watch mode next week. There would be stock specific action based on results performance in terms of expectation and management guidance. Major auto and bank companies would report results next week”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty is likely to trade in the range of 5150- 5350 during the week. We expect 5280 to act as immediate resistance for the index. It may remain sluggish below this level and may be dragged till 5150. A move above 5280 would bring back the stock specific momentum in the market. The Bank Nifty held most of its gains and provided support to the broader markets post Infosys results. We expect the index could continue to trade in the range of 10350-10800 in the coming weak wherein focus may still be on the mid-cap banking space”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “All the indicators indicating range bound trading for next week. The options open interest witnessed addition in lower strikes puts options on the short side. The options open interest concentration for July series continued to be in the 5000 strike put with the highest open interest of above 85 lakhs. The put-call ratio of open interest increased last week and ended at 1.37 levels, which indicates put writing. The options' open interest activity remained skewed toward puts option as there was fresh addition among puts. Nifty 5400-strike July call has maximum open interest of above 90 lakhs shares signifying that the level is the resistance. The broad trading range has shifted to 5000-5400 for this week”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Our markets have taken a support precisely at '20-day EMA' during the last two trading sessions of the week. A sustainable move below this level may drag the Indices lower towards the gap area (17135-17034/5189-5159 levels) formed on 29th June 2012. A fall towards the mentioned gap area would mean that the index is likely to consolidate further within the range of 17034/5159 and 17635/5350. This could also mean a prolonged phase of lacklustre activity within the mentioned range. One may note that the markets consolidated for the entire month of April within the very same range before a decisive move could be seen. Considering the chart structure of the major stocks within the Index, and the fact that the weekly stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, we are of the opinion that a similar consolidation phase is likely over the next few days. The current ongoing uptrend is likely to resume once the indices close above 17635/5350 level. In this scenario, we expect indices to march towards the levels of 17687-18041/5386-5500. As mentioned in our previous reports, we advise Positional traders to book partial profits on a rise towards 5350 and hold balance positions in Nifty by keeping a trailing stop loss at 5090 (Nifty spot)”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “The Government’s constant dithering on a number of key policy issues continues to play spoilsport as well, notwithstanding some positive comments made by the Prime Minister recently. The markets will remain range bound unless the Centre springs a pleasant surprise. Markets and economists expect some progress on the policy front post the presidential election. Let’s keep our fingers crossed until then”.  (source: myiris) 

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5190 and the resistance is 5300. If Nifty breaks 5190, it may further go down to 5160 and then 5040. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5300, the level of 5350-5400 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5450-5600 in the upper side and 5150-5050 in the lower side”.

INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Nifty has recently broken a trendline support drawn from recent major low of 4,760. This has negative implications and can result in Nifty testing lower levels of 5,150-5,100”.

EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES: “If Nifty gives a close below its 20 DMA (i.e. 5,225-level) and the European and American indices surrender to the bears, only then we will accept that the bear is large, dark and scary. Until then the possibility of a toothless and a clawless black bear is also open whose presence will result merely in a range-bound trade. On the other hand if Nifty manages to fill the bearish gap of Thursday’s session (an overlap of 5,301) then in that case bulls will have an upper hand”.