"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 09.07.2012 TO 15.07.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex gained 91.14 points, or 0.52% to 17,521.12 for the week ended July 06, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty moved up 38.05 points, or 0.72%, to 5,316.95 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “Though the Nifty has been trading in a narrow range for the last few sessions, the underlying tone remains positive. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty remain at 5350. Downside supports to watch are at 5300-5250”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “On the domestic front, the progress of monsoon provided some relief. There have been reports suggesting urgency on the Government’s part to come up with reform initiatives. We believe that, initiation of these reforms will likely lead to higher levels for the markets. The monsoon progress and quarterly results will be the other triggers to watch out for. On the global front, any further stimulus measures will be positive for the markets”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Immediate upside targets for the Nifty remain at 5350. Downside supports to watch are at 5300-5250”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty closed on positive note for 5th consecutive week. Buying momentum may be continuing above 5340 levels. On downside, Nifty has important support at 5250 levels. Traders may take delivery based position in good stocks. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5340. If Nifty shows strength above 5340 levels then we may see rally till 5425/5500/5560. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5340 levels then selling pressure till 5250/5200/5150 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	5320-5340	5250	5370
For the Week	Sell	5370-5410	5270-5200	5450

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in BFSI, pharma, consumer durables, realty, capital goods and FMCG sectors if markets hold 5,250 levels. Short positions can be assumed in energy, auto and IT if the Index fails to sustain above 5,400 levels or below 5,250 levels. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broad range of 5,250-5,400 levels this week”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Next week is eventful with IIP and Inflation data due on 12th and 13th respectively. Result season kicks off with – Infosys, TCS, HDFC and HDFC Bank due to release results next week. Policy reforms to contain the fiscal deficit and boost investments are likely to be held up till the Presidential elections. Global cues and quarterly results are likely to set the tone for the market. Caution might again return to the markets”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty traded in new range of 5240-5350 levels last week. We expect the range bound to positive bias to continue for a while. However, volatility may surge a bit before the quarterly results from Infosys and TCS next week. Short covering may pull the index towards 5450 if it is able to surpass 5350. On downsides, a move below 5150 levels may trigger a change of bias The Bank Nifty carried the momentum of last week and gained another 3% while closing above 10600 levels. We expect the positive momentum to continue in the banking index till it is able to hold above 10350”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Hereafter, the range of 5200-5400 will remain crucial in the near term. Market is expected to see a mixed movement this week due to the risk of profit-taking from higher levels. A breach below the 5200 mark could see the Index declining sharply to 5000 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market has not shown any signs of weakness as yet except a loss of momentum and so it is logical to presume that the market is still up as long as 5275 holds and the logical target on the upside would still be 5378 and in extreme case 5446. From a trading point of view I would trade the long side of the market as long as 5275 holds as 5275 is a crucial support to work with”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “On weekly chart we are observing that the indices are hovering around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 18524/5630 (February 22, 2012)-15749/4770 (June 4, 2012). This level is at 17464/5302. The weekly 'RSI-Smoothened' oscillator and positive crossover in '5 & 20 EMA' are still intact. However, due to overbought nature of momentum oscillators "RSI" and "Stochastic" on the daily chart, some consolidation or minor pullback is likely in the early part of the coming week. However this pullback should be treated as a normal corrective move and not as reversal of existing uptrend. A sustainable move below 17350/5260 level would indicate short term loss of momentum and indices may drift towards the gap area formed in last Friday's session (17135-16919/5189-5159 levels). These levels also coincide with the "20- Day EMA". On the flip side a close above 17570-5340 would activate fresh momentum on the upside. In this case the indices are likely to rally towards the "Downward Sloping Trend line" formed by joining the highs of 21109/6339 (November 5, 2010)-18524/5630 (February 24, 2012) which is placed at 17780/5420 level. Positional traders holding long positions in Nifty should place a trailing stop loss at 5090 (Nifty spot)”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5450-5600 in the upper side and 5150-5050 in the lower side”.

EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES: “After the gap up on June 29, Nifty has gone into consolidation mode since past four days. It’s pushing at the 5,342-5,378 resistance area. A move above 5,378 could spark additional buying interest. The next upside level, if this occurs, is 5,500. This would bring Nifty at our short term target. The trend for Nifty is higher since early June and if Nifty continues to push through at 5,378, the rally is likely to continue for at least a bit longer. On the other hand a drop back below 5,090 will have bearish implications. Once again, the MACD is still on the recovery path. Therefore, the short term view remains bullish”. 

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 5230 will have a strong support closing below which trend will turn negative and selling pressure till 5080 (200 DMA) levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5400 will act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5500 level”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5250 and the resistance is 5400. If Nifty breaks 5250, it may further go down to 5190 and then 5140. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5400, the level of 5450-5520 would become the next target”.

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday 5307-5296 would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5301. Above 5307 Nifty could test 5327 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5444. Nifty has support at 5287 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5200-5160-5118-5051-4985-4891”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “We witnessed some profit taking in the initial half of trade but Nifty managed to recover some of its losses as the session progressed and finally ended at 5316. We had indicated the level of 5440 as the positional target for Nifty and continue to maintain the same. However in the immediate term if it pierces the support of 5270 then we may see further decline till 5250. The level of 5200 has now emerged as a strong support and we recommend that traders place a positional stop loss of 5190 for all Nifty long positions. Despite any decline If Nifty manages to sustain above 5190 then it may test the target of 5400-5440 over next few days. On the higher side it now has immediate resistance placed at 5340. Sustenance above 5340 would confirm further upside till 5400 and higher”.