"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 23.07.2012 TO 29.07.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex declined 55.26 points, or 0.32% to 17,158.44 for the week ended July 20, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dipped 22.15 points, or 0.42%, to 5,205.10 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty erasing most of the gains of the previous two trading sessions, the bears seem to be making a comeback. Crucial supports to watch in the coming week are the recent lows of 5169. These levels also coincide with the 200 day EMA”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “Post the Presidential elections, hopes are high that, the Government will initiate fresh reforms initiatives. We reiterate that, reforms are a prerequisite for the markets to move up. Some of the reform initiatives are likely discounted and hence, if these do not come through, it may disappoint the markets. Monsoons are still deficient till date and are also of concern. This has implications for the inflation and also, to some extent, on the RBI policy action. Fed meeting at the beginning of August will also be important and markets will look at signs of further monetary stimulus, if any”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed profit booking for 2^nd consecutive week. Nifty has support in 5160-5100 zone, if Nifty respect support then recovery may also be seen else selling pressure may be continuing.  Nifty July future expiry due this the week and volatility may be continuing. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5200. If Nifty shows strength above 5200 levels then we may see rally till 5270/5350/5440. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5200 levels then selling pressure till 5160/5100/5040 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	5200-5220	5140	5250
For the Week	Sell	5180-5240	5100-5050	5270

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goel): “For the coming week, if Nifty sustains above 5250 level, further rally to 5280-5350 is likely. If 5190 level is breached, 5090-5040 may also be tested”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty was unable to clear the resistance of 5260 and opened negative. It traded with a negative bias throughout the session and concluded at 5205, just above the important support of 5190. It is now placed near a make or break level. A move above 5260 would be a positive sign and would ensure higher levels once Nifty sustains above 5300. On the contrary the level of 5170 is now an important support. A break down below 5170 would ensure further declines till at least 5130. The level of 5090 is an important positional support for Nifty and a trend reversal level”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in metals, banking (broadly private), cement, FMCG and energy if the Nifty holds 5,170-5,150 levels. Short positions can be assumed in auto, pharma, capital goods, IT and utilities if the Index fails to sustain beyond 5,350 levels or below 5,150 levels. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broad range of 5,150-5,350 levels this week”. 

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Market will be looking forward to politically sensitive policy steps now once Presidential elections are out of the way. While the week is expected to see high degree of volatility ahead of the FNO expiry and some of the big ticket results from HUL to ITC, BHEL to LT and Cairn, progress of monsoon which is 22% below normal and RBI policy due 31st are likely to have significant bearing on market sentiment”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty may see some surge in volatility next week while trading in the range of 5150-5280. Breach of the range may trigger closure of positions in the options segment and result in larger directional movement on the Nifty. However, stock specific momentum may continue in the near term. The Bank Nifty was the major laggard in the market of the last week while losing more than 1% during the week. PSU banking stocks may lead declines. Private sector heavyweights showed some weakness towards the end of the week. We expect the Bank Nifty to find major resistance around 10650 while downsides may stretch towards its major support of 10350 levels”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Hereafter, the range of 5100-5300 will remain crucial in the near term, and the move is expected to remain sideways in the current expiry. If Nifty slips below the 5100 mark, it could slide to 5000 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the flip side, the index may face stiff resistance at 5300 levels”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “After a flat opening on Monday, indices moved marginally below the '20-day EMA' to test gap area (17135-17034/5189-5159 levels) formed on 29^th June 2012. This level also coincides with the weekly 20 EMA. Hence, the significance of this support zone cannot be ignored. Lack of policy action or deferring of important decisions would clearly further deteriorate sentiment and thus the Index may drift lower to 16808-16636/5098-5041 levels if the 17034/5159 mark is breached on the downside on a closing basis. On the upside the immediate resistance is seen at 17319/5258 level. A breakout above this may push indices higher to test 17635/5350 level. As mentioned in our previous reports, we advise Positional traders to book partial profits on a rise towards 5350 and hold balance positions in Nifty by keeping a trailing stop loss at 5090 (Nifty spot)”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5150 and the resistance is 5280. If Nifty breaks 5150, it may further go down to 5110 and then 5040. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5280, the level of 5350-5400 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5350-5400 in the upper side and 5100-5050 in the lower side”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 5180 will have a strong support closing below which trend will turn negative and selling pressure till 5097 (200 DMA) levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5330 will act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5400 level”.