"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 25.06.2012 TO 01.07.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex gained 22.58 points, or 0.13% to 16,972.51 for the week ended June 22, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty moved up 7 points, or 0.14%, to 5,146.05 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “While the Nifty has remained within a narrow range this week, the underlying bias remains positive. A breakout would be confirmed once the Nifty moves out of the 5190 levels. Weakness could emerge once the 5090 levels are broken”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Anindya Banerjee): “Indian Rupee touched a record low of 57.32 against the USD, a fall of more than a rupee since yesterday. The just concluded French elections and Greek elections did offer a brief respite to US Dollar but lack of policy action from Central banks helped the US Dollar recover. Markets would keep a close eye on the next week’s European Union summit. EU summit is expected to discuss measures on combating the crises, in case concrete measures are not announced, then it can cause further sell-off in risk assets and rally in the US Dollar. Over the next week, we would expect USD/INR to strengthen towards 58.00/58.40 with support around 56.40/50. Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 5,000 and 5,230”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Volatility can be the order of the day; an intra-day upside (seems like a possibility) could come in above the 5173 level while significant resistance at higher levels (5200) – would limit the upside. The outlook has turned neutral again while resistance comes in at the 5224+ level and support comes in at the 4920 level”.            

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty has sustained above 5100 level for last two weeks, which indicates strength in near term, as it is trading above 20- DMA of 5030. If Nifty holds 5170 levels then further recovery may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5170. If Nifty shows strength above 5170 levels then we may see rally till 5225/5280/5345. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5170 levels then selling pressure till 5090/5045/4990 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5150-5170	5230	5120
For the Week	Buy	5100-5150	5250-5280	5070

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goel): “As the market nears expiry week, cautious approach is recommended since volatility is expected to be high. Important resistance exists at 5195-5205 and a close above these levels will definitely make the medium term trend bullish. Till then volatile session can be expected”.

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (5144-5134)-(5119-5108) would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5126. Above 5144 Nifty could test 5159 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5171-5218-5301-5444. Nifty has support at 5094 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5029-4979-4930-4860-4768-4695-4588-4531”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “Going forward the range of 5180 to 5190 continues to remain a stiff resistance for Nifty. If it manages to surpass this resistance range; we may see further upside till 5250 and beyond that 5300 is a possibility over the coming few days. On the down side the level of 5100 is an important intraday support. A breach of this level may indicate weakness till 5030 which is an important support for Nifty. Thus Nifty appears to have turned range bound and an either side break out above 5190 or 5100 initially and 5030 (later for further confirmation) would provide us with some short term directional cues”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in FMCG, cement, capital goods, BFSI and Pharma if markets hold 5,050 levels. Short positions can be assumed in auto, metals, IT and utilities if the Index fails to sustain above 5,250 levels or below 5,050 levels. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broad range of 5,050-5,250 levels this week”. 

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty is having resistance at 5,158, 5,173 and 5,199 while the support is there at 5,108, 5,092 and 5,067 levels”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Going ahead, (1) expectation of action on domestic policy reform on account of the likely new political realignment signalled by the comfortable support extended by the new and existing allies for the presidential candidature and (2) weakening global commodity prices are likely to provide support to our markets. Our equity markets are likely to outperform global markets and high beta plays like financials could rally”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Due to the approaching settlement, volatile movement may continue in the index. However, the positive trend in the broader index may continue till it holds above 5050. Below 5000, further downside due to long liquidation cannot be ruled out. On the higher side, the intermediate resistance lies at 5240. The Bank Nifty failed to continue the momentum acquired in the last week. After the RBI policy announcement, selling pressure was observed. However, stock specific recovery was seen among banking stocks. We expect 10250/10400 to act as strong resistance for the Bank Nifty while 9600 may act as immediate support”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Range bound movement is likely to continue in current expiry series. The 5200 level will remain crucial resistance, and only close above 5200 will change the market trend. On the contrary, the index has strong support at 5000 levels. Option concentration remains at 5200 & 5300 strikes call options with open interest of 80 lakhs shares each. Among put options, the 5000-strike put option has the total open interest of 94 lakhs shares which is the highest open interest among all the put options. Based on option concentration, the current series is expected to expire between 5000-5200 ranges. The coming expiry week is likely to remain choppy with the positive biasness”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically 5200 and 5210 is still a resistance zone to work with and even if the market climbs up then the possible upside could be limited to 5250 in this F&O expiry week. From a trading point of view I would trade the long side of the market as long as 5100 holds as 5100 is a crucial support to work with”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Broadly speaking, indices have traded in the range of 17110 to 16553/5190 to 5015 over the last few sessions. Despite a disappointing outcome from the RBI monetary policy, significant rupee depreciation and negative global clues, our indices remained firm and closed well above the 5100 mark. This signifies immense strength in our markets. In our last weekly report, we had advised traders to use declines as a buying opportunity. In-line with our expectation, market participants have showed immense buying interest near all support levels. The benchmark indices are now trading well above the '200-day SMA' level as well as the upper trading range of 'Downward Slopping Channel'. The positive crossover in weekly 'RSI' momentum oscillator and weekly '3 & 8 EMA' is still intact. Further, the 'RSI-Smoothened' oscillator is now positively poised. The impact of this technical indicator would be evident if indices sustain above 17110/5190 level. This may trigger enhanced buying interest among market participants. As a result, indices are expected to rally towards our mentioned target of 17400/5270 or even higher. We continue to be optimistic and traders are now advised to trail their stop loss from 4880 to 4995 on closing basis”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5065 and the resistance is 5190. If Nifty breaks 5065, it may further go down to 4960 and then 4880. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5190, the level of 5250-5350 would become the next target”.

INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “The next week would continue to pose challenges for the markets in the light of high dollar rates and weak domestic and international news flow. For next week Nifty has supports at 5,085-5,050 and on the upside, resistances lie at 5,190-5,300 level”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 5000 psychological mark will have a strong support closing below which Major trend will turn negative and selling pressure till 4850 levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5200 will act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5300 level”.