"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 18.06.2012 TO 24.06.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex surged 231 points, or 1.38% to 16,949.83 for the week ended June 15, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 70.70 points, or 1.39%, to 5,139.05 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “Majority of experts feel that more or less the market has already priced in a 25 bps cut in repo rate and 25bps in cash reserve ratio. If the RBI delivers the same then the policy event would be a non-event, say experts. Technically, with the Nifty holding above the 5020-5000 levels and closing with strong gains on Friday, the bulls do seem to have an upper hand. Of course, the markets trend would also depend on the outcome of the Greek elections over the weekend”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “Globally, Greek elections are to be held on Sunday and the results, which may be known by Monday morning, will have an important bearing on the market. A win for Syriza party may heighten concerns about Greece’s exit from the Eurozone, which in turn, can have an impact on the other major Eurozone countries. A hung Parliament in Greece will only prolong the uncertainty and will be negative for the markets. The RBI’s credit policy meeting on Monday is also very important from the market’s perspective. Interest rates and CRR are largely expected to be lowered. A higher-than-expected cut in interest rates/CRR will take the markets higher, though the gains may be short-lived in the backdrop of lack of policy initiatives. We believe that, markets are already discounting the positives to some extent”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5060-5234. 5182 may act as a minor resistance. RBI credit policy may cause market to trade in a wide range with high volatility. Bank-nifty June Future is expected to trade in the range 10280-9820. However if sustained below this range 9690 and 9530 might be strong support levels while 10410 would be a strong resistance level above the given range”.            

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed strength for 2nd consecutive week. On Monday, Nifty’s movement may depend upon RBI meet. If RBI policy outcome meets market expectation then Nifty may rally to 5200-5300 zones in coming week. On the other hand, If RBI policy outcome doesn’t meet market expectation ten selling pressure may be seen. On downside, Nifty has good support in 5040-5000 zone and on upside resistance in 5200-5300 zone. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5150. If Nifty shows strength above 5150 levels then we may see rally till 5200/5240/5300/5350. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5150 levels then selling pressure till 5090/5040/500/4950 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5130-5150	5210	5100
For the Week	Sell	5250-5300	5125-5150	5350

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “All eyes are on the Greece election outcome on Sunday June 17 which will shape the likely future of the Euro zone and the economy. Since global events continue to influence our market, the outcome will have sufficient effect on our domestic bourses as well. Coupled with the RBI monetary policy on June 18, market is expected to be highly volatile. Cautious approach is recommended”.

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (5129-5119)-(5103-5091) would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5111. Above 5129 Nifty could test 5146 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5218-5301-5444. Nifty has support at 5069 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5047-5001-4957-4913-4851-4768-4695-4588-4531”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “The correction that materialized couple of days back was a contained one and Nifty took support well above 5000 level to recover smartly and ended at 5139. It is now within striking distance of an immediate resistance of 5150, its 200 day EMA. A move beyond this level would trigger further upside till 5200 and beyond that 5300 is also a possibility in next few sessions. These are important Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous fall. Now the level of 5040 would act as an immediate support. A move below 5040 would be the first sign of weakness that may open further down side till 4960 and even lower. We recommend a hold on existing long positions with a strict stop loss of 5040”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in FMCG, cement, capital goods, BFSI, auto and IT if markets hold 5,000 levels. Short positions can be assumed in metals, pharma and utilities if the Index fails to sustain above 5,350 levels or below 5,000 levels. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broad range of 5,000-5,350 levels this week”. 

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty is having resistance at 5,165 and 5,195 and if the RBI cuts rates and the Greek elections are in favour of bulls then we may see considerable gains in the market. Also many expect RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 bps and even a 25 bps cut in CRR is also not ruled out. Political sections are also getting heated up as they prepare for the Presidential elections next week”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty is expected to trade with a positive bias if it is able to sustain above 5070. A close below 5070 may halt the upward momentum. With the lined up events, markets may remain volatile. On the higher side, 5250 would act as the major resistance. Bank Nifty is expected to trade with a positive bias if it is able to sustain above 9800. On the higher side, major resistance is placed at 10400. Any positive surprise is likely to have a major impact on private sector banks as significant short additions were observed in these stocks”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Last week was range bound in comparison with the recent past, as Nifty traded in the narrow range of 140 points, with weekly high of 5145 and 5015 weekly low. Markets remained stock specific and mid cap stocks outperformed the large cap stocks. This range bound movement may get directional trigger after RBI policy and Greece election results announcement on 18 June 2012. However the 5200 level will remain crucial resistance for bulls, and only close above 5200 will change the trend. On the contrary, the index has strong support at 4800 levels. Option concentration indicates strong support around 4800 and selling pressure around 5200 in the current expiry, if 5200 is broken in the current expiry we may see expiry closer to 5400. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 23.52%, while the average IV of put options closed at 23.95%. Nifty is expected to break the range of 5200-4800 in coming weeks and the sharp move may cause the rise in option volatility”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is now at Make or Break levels. It has seen a high at 5146 like a dot and now everything depends on the Banks and if banks are up then we could see a good up move but if banks are not up then we could see market correcting, so looks like banks holds the key. From a trading point of view I would trade the long side of the market as long as 5100 holds”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Broadly speaking, indices have traded in the range of 16968 to 16553/5146 to 5015 over the last few sessions. Friday's decent upside rally has confirmed a bullish implication of the mentioned 'Downward Sloping Channel'. Further, we are also observing that indices have managed to close convincingly above '200-day SMA' as well as '20-week EMA'. This indicates significant strength in current up move. We are now observing a positive crossover in '3 & 8 week EMA'. This technical indicator coupled with the positively poised 'RSI' momentum indicator indicates further upside. We advise traders to hold their long positions for the expected target around 17400/5270 in spite of the upcoming global and domestic events. We are of the opinion that markets have already begun assessing the outcome from these events and are thus, reacting prior to the actual announcement. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss below 4880 on closing basis”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5065 and the resistance is 5190. If Nifty breaks 5065, it may further go down to 4980 and then 4900. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5190, the level of 5250-5350 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5250-5300 in the upper side and 4900-4850 in the lower side”.

SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “The Market is expected to remain volatile on account of major events like  Reserve Bank of India's mid-quarter monetary policy review due on Monday, 18 June 2012, Outcome of a parliamentary election in Greece,  a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates from Tuesday, euro zone finance ministers meet due on Thursday, a mini-summit of German, French, Italian and Spanish leaders is scheduled for Friday and G20 summit will decide the near term trend on the bourses besides progress of the monsoon rains, Volatility in Exchange rates and Global Economic issues will be the factor that will decide the further trend of markets”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 5000 psychological mark will have a strong support closing below which Major trend will turn negative and selling pressure till 4850 levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5180 will act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5300 level”.