"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 11.06.2012 TO 17.06.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex surged 753.71 points, or 4.72% to 16,718.87 for the week ended June 8, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty added 226.75 points, or 4.68%, to 5,068.35 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty ending with healthy gains this week and moving above the previous highs of 5020, the underlying trend remains up. Our immediate upside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 5100-5135. Weakness could emerge if the immediate supports of 4994 are broken”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “In the short term, the RBI rate decision will be keenly watched. The April IIP as well as the May Inflation data, which will be released next week, may have a bearing on the RBI policy decision. The progress of monsoons will also be closely tracked. We recommend a bottoms-up approach and would advise investors to use dips to accumulate stocks of companies having ethical managements and strong balance sheets across sectors Initiation of reforms may make us take a more constructive long-term view of the markets”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “On 12^th IIP data for the April month will be announced, while on 14^th Inflation figure for May 2012 will be announced. Both of these will be very crucial for our market. Overall, a short covering in Future and Options may trigger a rise by another 50-100 points in Nifty. Option data is indicating resistance in 5000-5200 zone and support in 4900-4800 zones”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Support for Nifty stands at 4,768 levels while resistance now comes at 5,182 levels. Investors would also keep an eye on Consumer Credit, Wholesale Inventories, Trade balance to be released by the commerce department today evening in the US”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty has shown this much weekly gain after a long time and it has also sustained above support level of 4770-4800 levels. All this is giving positive strength in near term, as it is trading above 20-DMA of 4921. If Nifty holds 5050 levels then further recovery may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5080. If Nifty shows strength above 5080 levels then we may see rally till 5125/5170/5225. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5080 levels then selling pressure till 5040/5000/4980 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	5110-5130	5060	5150
For the Week	Buy	5020-5060	5160-5190	4980

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (5062-5049)-(5028-5014) would be buy levels. Weak Markets won’t cross 5039. Above 5062 Nifty could test 5084 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5123-5218-5301-5444. Nifty has support at 4994 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 4964-4927-4890-4838-47684695-4588-4531”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “The level of 5100 is now insight which may act as a resistance for Nifty. The entire range of 5130 to 5100 may prove as a short term profit booking zone and Nifty may react till 5050 to 5000 in next few sessions. However there are high chances that Nifty may ultimately cross the level of 5130 and surge higher based on the bullish pattern formed on the weekly chart. On the downside the level of 4960 is now a key short term support and below that 4840 is a trend reversal level for Nifty”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in BFSI, FMCG, IT, metals and capital goods if the Nifty holds 4,900 levels. Short positions can be assumed in pharma and consumer durables if the Index fails to sustain above 5,200 levels or below 4,900 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in a broad range of 4,900-5,200 levels this week”.

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty closed above its 200 DMA which is positive but it in the daily charts it has entered overbought region. However the sentiment has turned slightly bullish. Nifty is having resistance at 5,083, 5,104 and 5,138 while the support is there at 5,014, 4,993 and 4,959 levels”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Sentiment improved on account of (1) expectations of an interest rate cut at RBI’s monetary policy meet on 18th June, (2) hope of investment taking off with the PM taking initiative to get infrastructure projects going by holding a meeting with infrastructure related ministries – power, railways, roads, shipping, civil aviation and coal--, and (3) positive global cues. High beta sectoral indices of capital goods, infrastructure, banks, power, and realty were up between 6%-11%. In the immediate term, markets could continue its upward momentum. There is talk of a bailout of power distribution companies. High beta plays are likely to continue to see momentum and provide short term trading opportunities”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “A move above 4,950 negated the downtrend and the Nifty closed above its 200 DMA levels. Sustainability above 5,070 should trigger fresh upsides for immediate targets of 5,200. On downsides, major support is placed around 4,950 below which the market momentum may be lost. The Bank Nifty surpassed its major resistance of 9800 last week and closed a tad below 10000 on the back of expectations of positive policy announcements. The next important resistance is placed near 10250 for the Bank Nifty. Major support for the Bank Nifty lies near 9750 levels”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Based on Nifty Option concentration, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5100 to 4800 for next two weeks. On the daily charts, the index should sustain above the 4950 levels for the continuation of the current trend. If Nifty breaks 4950 than we may slide to 4800 levels again”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market has demonstrated brute strength in the last week and has closed just short of a strong logical target of 5120 and now if it proceeds up then the next logical target in the days to come would be 5200. From a trading point of view I would trade the long side of the market as long as 5000 holds”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “We are now observing that indices are trading near the upper range of 'Downward Sloping Channel' drawn by joining two highs of February 22, 2012-April 19, 2012 and low of March 7, 2012.  In addition, the weekly 'RSI' momentum oscillator is now signaling a positive crossover. The positive impact of this technical tool would be seen if Indices cross and sustain above 'Downward Sloping Channel' as well as '20-Week EMA' level of 16830/5100. However, looking at the pace of the rally in the last 5 sessions and the momentum gained by the bulls, we are of the opinion that the resistance zone will most likely be crossed and indices are likely to rally towards 17400/5270 level in next 3-5 Weeks. While one may argue that the next week has a slew of game changing events, we would suggest traders to trust the chart and act accordingly. Although, we have events such as Inflation data on 14th June, Greece election and results on 17^th June and a RBI monetary policy on 18^th June, we advise traders to use declines up to 4950 to buy into the market. The expected target on the upside would be near to 17400/5270. Traders are advised to maintain a STRICT stop loss below 4880 on closing basis”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 4960 and the resistance is 5090. If Nifty breaks 4960, it may further go down to 4910 and then 4850. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5090, the level of 5130-5250 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5200-5250 in the upper side and 4850-4800 in the lower side”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 5000 levels will have a strong support closing below which Major trend will turn negative and selling pressure till 4850 levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5130 will act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5200 level”.