"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (16.06.2011)"

Nifty closed at 5,447.50, down by 53.00 points or 0.96 percent over the previous day closing of 5,500.50, after witnessing a low of 5,438.95 and a high of 5,499.35. Sensex closed at 18,132.24, down by 176.42 points or 0.96 percent over the previous day closing of 18,308.66. It touched an intraday low of 18,111.21 and high of 18,308.69.
The markets’ breadth was negative. Out of 2,954 stocks traded, 1,201 stocks advanced, 1,641 stocks declined and 112 stocks remained unchanged. In Sensex, 5 stocks advanced and 25 stocks declined. 
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES : 
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, Nifty witnessed downward session, today, wherein our indices witnessed a southward movement with negative bias and higher volatility. After last sessions’ positive closing, Nifty witnessed a southward movement today and form a big bear candle. Nifty break the vital support level of 5480 and 5440 but not able to maintain 5440 level and closed below the 9 day’s SMA placed at 5508.This may strengthen the bears, in the forthcoming sessions. Nifty not able to test the vital resistance of 14 day’s SMA placed at 5516 and closed below its 50 and 100day’s SMA placed at 5616 & 5559. These levels may act as new ranges in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a little lower level of 19.14% compared to the previous session value of 18.51%, indicating lesser than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 42.39 levels and MACD was above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness some range bound movements in coming sessions with higher volatility”. 
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:As we had given the range in between 5465-5517 for the day and it broke the lower band as well the first support was also broken and tested the crucial support of the day i.e.5436 with the lower level of 5439 and settled at 5447. It is expected that the range of the Nifty may be in the wide range of 5401-5517 because of RBI policy to be declared. The resistance of the Nifty may be @ 5535 and the important resistance may be at 5570 and the support for the Nifty may be at 5380 if it breaches the level of 5401 and at last the major support may be at 5328-5348. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 10570-10715. If sustains above this range it may face resistance at 10780 and 10850 while if sustained below 10570 it may test 10380. 
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):Market sentiments are likely to be affected by the outcome of RBI`s meeting tomorrow. Nifty is likely to consolidate within 5,350-5,600 range”. 
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 5450 levels, with stop loss placed at 5480, targeting 5430-5400 levels. Alternatively trade long in Nifty if it crosses 5480 levels, with stop loss placed at 5460, targeting 5500-5520 levels”. 
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): The market unfolded weak as expected. Technically the market has not displayed any signs of strength so far and so in all likelihood 5500 is a stiff resistance to deal with and we should see some slide in the days to come. The support for the Nifty is at 5400-5350 and resistance at 5500. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 18000-17980 and resistance at 18265”. 
IIFL (Amar Ambani):Another rate hike by the RBI looks imminent tomorrow as inflation increased more than estimated in May and March. Food prices are a supply-side issue but inflation seems to have become more generalized. A diesel price hike and increase in MSP prices for agri crops will add to the inflationary pressure going forward. So, the RBI may boost rates further to check inflation. GDP growth for FY12 has already been scaled down. Now it remains to be seen how the earnings unfold against this challenging macro-economic backdrop”. 
MICROSEC SECURITIES:After making a high of 5604.95 on 3rd June, 2011, Nifty has given a correction of almost 165 points. Now it is expected to get a strong support near 5400. If it breaches 5400, it may further go down to 5300 in the extreme short term. However if Nifty is able to maintain above 5520, it may test the level of 5610. Traders are advised to maintain a stop loss at 5400 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5400 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5475. If Nifty breaks 5400, it may further go down to 5360 and then 5300. However, if it is able to sustain above 5475, the level of 5520–5565 would become the next target”. 
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook):The trend deciding level for the day is 18,184/5,462 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18,257–18,382/ 5,485-5,522 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 18,184/5,462 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18,059–17,987/5,425-5,402 levels”. 
BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra):Nifty showed selling pressure from resistance near 5,500 levels and closed in red. RBI monetary policy on Thursday may play important role in sentiment preparation. Sentiment may remain weak below 5,500 area and selling pressure may be seen. For daily Purpose, Trend deciding level is 5,450. If Nifty shows strength above 5450 levels, then rally to 5,500/5,540/5,570 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,450 levels then selling pressure till 5,400/5,350/5,300 may also be seen”. 
INDIRA SECURITIES:A day ahead of the RBI monetary policy, the Indian market displayed nervousness in late trade and ended on a weak note despite the first session being range-bound and flat. For today’s trade all eyes will be on RBI policy and Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5480 & 5510 in the upper side and 5430 & 5390 in the lower side”. 
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS:On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5380-5400 level, the level (5400) which consists of the highest OI (i.e. 90.62 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5480-5520 level, the level (5500) which consists of the highest addition in OI (i.e. 15.08 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”. 
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:Though there was a sell-off in the market today ahead of policy meet the overall trend continues to be under tremendous selling pressure. For a fresh rally to emerge its very important that nifty should hold above 5520 in the near term. Strong support for nifty future seen at 5373-5340 levels and fresh sell-off could be seen only if nifty future starts trading below these levels. Strong support for SENSEX seen at 17875 and for Bank Nifty at 10390 levels”. 
SWASTIKA INVESTMENT:The Nifty made gap down opening at 5494 levels yesterday and market breadth was negative for the whole trading session. The intense selling pressure had made the benchmark index to end on a weak note at 5447.50 levels losing 53 points which is near to strong support level of 5440; indicating further weakness in the market ahead. On daily charts, Nifty made a Black Candlestick with short upper and lower shadow indicating sellers’ aggressiveness. For the coming trading session, if Nifty sustains below the 5440 mark decisively then further downfall can be witnessed. Index can face resistance at 5490/5520 levels while support for the day is seen at 5420/5390 levels. Amid volatility can be observed due to upcoming RBI policy meet. Hence, cautious watch with strict stop losses is recommended”. 
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