"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR FRIDAY (17.06.2011)"


Nifty closed at 5,396.75, down by 50.75 points or 0.93 percent over the previous day closing of 5,447.50, after witnessing a low of 5,389.80 and a high of 5,447.50. Sensex closed at 17,985.88, down by 146.36 points or 0.81 percent over the previous day closing of 18,132.24. It touched an intraday low of 17,958.94 and high of 18,155.10.
The markets’ breadth was negative. Out of 2,946 stocks traded, 1,085 stocks advanced, 1,744 stocks declined and 117 stocks remained unchanged. In Sensex, 8 stocks advanced and 22 stocks declined.
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 599.52 crore (prov. cash market fig.)
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES :
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, Nifty witnessed downward session today with negative bias on second day in succession with higher volatility. After last sessions’ negative closing, Nifty witnessed a southward movement today and form a big bear candle. Nifty broke the vital support level of 5420 and 5400 level and closed below the 9 day’s SMA placed at 5494.This may strengthen the bears, in the forthcoming sessions. Nifty not able to test the vital resistance of 14 day’s SMA placed at 5510 and closed below its 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5606 & 5556. These levels may act as new ranges in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a little lower level of 19.66% compared to the previous session value of 19.14%, indicating lesser than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 38.28 levels and MACD was above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness some range bound movements in coming sessions with higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:Next session’s range for the Nifty may be in between 5348-5447 and the crucial support for the Nifty will be at 5328 and resistance for the Nifty may be at 5480 and the key resistance for the Nifty will be 5517. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 10535-10735. If sustains below this range it may test 10380 while 10800 might be treated as key resistance leveLs".
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):With no clear trend emerging from IIP number and monetary policy announcement, market sentiments are likely to be affected by global cues. Market is likely to consolidate in the range of 5,350-5,600”.
KARVY STOCK:  The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat note tomorrow.  Trade short in Nifty below 5,400 levels, with stop loss placed at 5,430, targeting 5,380-5,350 levels”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani):The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bps to 7.5%, choosing price stability in the growth-inflation trade off. While some sections thought that the RBI would maintain status quo fearing a growth slowdown, especially following a 50bps hike just a month ago, the majority expected a 25bps hike in rates with latest reported inflation figures at over 9%.  China raising rates too added credence to the RBI decision to hike rates further. The reverse repo rate, at 100bps below the repo rate, stands at 6.5%. While these news seem factored in the market pricing, we see pressure building on consumption plays, autos and select banks too. Going forward, we expect another 25 bps hike in rates in the coming months”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:Yesterday the bears were dominated the entire market. Now the short term crucial support of Nifty lies at 5300. If it breaches 5300, the short trend would become negative and Nifty may further go down and take support near 5120. However a successive move above 5520 would indicate the reversal of current trend and in that case Nifty may test the level of 5610 in the extreme short term. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5350 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5440. If Nifty breaks 5350, it may further go down to 5300 and then 5260. However, if it is able to sustain above 5440, the level of 5475–5520 would become the next target”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra):RBI hiked repo rate and reverse repo Rate by 25 basis points and Nifty showed selling pressure for 2nd consecutive day and closed in red, which shows that bears are having control at the moment. Sentiment may remain weak below 5,400 areas and selling pressure may be seen. For daily purpose, Trend deciding level is 5,400. If Nifty shows strength above 5,400 levels, then rally to 5,450/5,500/5,540 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,400 levels then selling pressure till 5,350/5,300/5,250 may also be seen”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): Technically the market has not displayed any signs of strength so far and so in all likelihood 5500 is a stiff resistance to deal with and we should see some slide in the days to come. The market unfolded as expected yet again and has closed in the red despite efforts to close higher. Technically the market still looks weak and looks like a level of 5325 is on the cards. The support for the Nifty is at 5350-5325 and resistance at 5460. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 17230 and resistance at 18200”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS:On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5300-5320 level, the level (5300) which consists of the second highest OI (i.e. 73.05 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5430-5450 level, the level (5500) which consists of the second highest OI (i.e. 71.25 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:Selling was witnessed across the board today and the benchmark indices ended below the 18K mark after a long time of consolidation. The trend is very weak as there are no signs of buying visible among the large cap index stocks. Markets could drift further only if they start trading below its important support level of 17880/5367. We believe that unless nifty future breaks below 5327 levels on the closing basis fresh selling should be avoided and look for a trend reversal. Short term positive move expected if nifty future starts trading above 5460”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMENT:On daily charts, Nifty made a Black Candlestick with long upper shadow indicating selling pressure. The momentum indicator MACD has made a negative crossover which indicates that selling pressure may continue for further sessions. As per our last report, Nifty was unable to hold the levels of 5440 so further downfall can be predicted. For the coming trading session, if Nifty continues to trade below 5400 then support for the index can be seen at 5370/5340 while it can face resistance at 5430/5460”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:Weak global cues took its toll on the markets on Thursday with both benchmark indices closing lower than their psychological 18000 and 5400 mark, respectively. IT, Capital Goods, Metal and Oil & Gas were the biggest losers and some selective counters from financial sector were also beaten down. For today’s trade market likely to trade in the range between 5430 & 5480 in the upper side and 5380 & 5350 in the lower side”.
ANGEL BROKING: At present there is no clear candlestick pattern on the daily chart and the narrow range body indicates cautious approach at current levels. In coming trading session if indices trade below 17959/5392 levels then they are likely to test 17900–17786/5360-5327 levels. On the other hand, bounce from oversold territory to the levels of 18120-18218/5440-5471 may attract selling pressure”.
BONANZA ONLINE:On Thursday, RBI hiked Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate by 25 basis points and Nifty showed selling pressure for 2nd consecutive day and closed in red, which shows that bears are having control at the moment. Sentiment may remain weak below 5400 area and selling pressure may be seen. For daily purpose, Trend deciding level is 5400. If Nifty shows strength above 5400 levels, then rally to 5450/5500/5540 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5400 levels then selling pressure till 5350/5300/5250 may also be seen”.
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