The BSE Sensex jumped 513.19 points or 2.89% to settle at 18,240.68, its highest closing level since 14 June 2011. The index jumped 541.46 points at the day's high of 18268.95 in late trade. The index rose 77.45 points at the day's low of 17,804.94 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was up 151.25 points or 2.84% to 5,471.25, its highest closing level since 14 June 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 5,477.85 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.26% and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 1.8%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1,980 shares advanced while 865 shares declined and a total of 115 shares remained unchanged. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 28 stocks rose while only two of them fell.
BSE clocked turnover of ` 2815 crore, higher than ` 2525.86 crore on Thursday, 23 June 2011.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 890.44 crore (prov. fig.)
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “The market is likely to be choppy next week ahead of the expiry on the near-month June 2011 derivatives contracts on Thursday, June 30, 2011. In fact the start of the week could be on a negative note, since the Centre, on Friday evening, effected increases of ` 3/litre in diesel, ` 2/litre in kerosene, while making LPG cylinders dearer by ` 50. On the macro front, investors will watch the HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which indicates the performance of the manufacturing sector for June 2011. Expectations for Q1FY11 results will start building as the first quarter draws towards a close. HDFC kicks off the results season on July 08, 2011. Infosys will unveil Q1 results on July 12 2011. Further, the investors will continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently revised downwards the forecast for the vital monsoon rains this year to slightly below normal from the normal forecast given in April 2011. On the flip side, crop output may not be adversely affected significantly due to the onset of the monsoon rains on time this year and expectations that the rains will be well distributed”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “With Greece agreeing to the austerity measures, global markets can temporarily take a sigh of relief. Closer home, the monsoon is an important factor to monitor as recently, there were indications of a below-normal rainfall. What may lift the markets could be policy-related moves by the government. Going into the results season, investors would also be keenly watching the earnings numbers for firm signs of slowdown”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty witnessed an excellent session, wherein, bulls were in command throughout the session and Nifty breached its vital resistance of 5550 level decisively. On account of firm buying support aided with short covering, Nifty could manage to close near day’s high and consolidated all gains. An unchecked upward movement was the hallmark of today’s trade, wherein good buying across all levels was witnessed by benchmark indices. Nifty regained the vital support level of 5450, which will support the buying momentum in coming sessions. Nifty successfully overcame the resistances of 9, and 14 day’s SMA placed at 5368 & 5421 but closed below 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 5541 & 5539. These levels may act as new ranges in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a little lower level of 19.32%, indicating average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 52.03 levels and MACD was above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness some recovery amidst range bound movements in coming sessions with higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “As the Nifty had traded with the heavy volume in the previous trading session, suggesting us to buy at every decline and the next session’s range may be in between 5432-5520 and the support for the nifty may at 5401-5410 and the major support level for the day may be 5380. The resistance for the Nifty may be at 5550 and the crucial resistance for the Nifty may treated as 5608. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 10780-10960. if sustained above this range it may test 11200 while 10720 and 10660 may act as strong support levels below the given range”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty made bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on weekly chart, which shows that bulls are trying to come back. Volatility may be seen due to Nifty June future expiry in this week. On upside Nifty may face resistance in 5550-5625 range. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5450. If Nifty shows strength above 5450 levels then we may see rally 5550/5625/5700 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5450 levels then profit booking till 5400/5350//5300/5250 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Buy | 5440-5460 | 5490/5510 | 5420 |
| For the Week | Sell | 5520-5540 | 5400 | 5570 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Market sentiments have turned positive. Nifty has strong resistance around 5,510-5,520. Any fresh buying position should be initiated only above these levels. A small technical correction due to profit booking around 5,480-5,510 cannot be ruled out. Since market sentiments remain affected by oversees developments, a cautious stance is recommended”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5450 levels or else from 5430, with stop loss placed at 5400, targeting 5500-5530 levels”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “After having sold Rs14bn in the first three sessions of the week, FII turned buyers during the end of the week with positive flows of Rs11bn on the last two days. The buying in Indian markets was triggered by fall in commodities, especially, crude oil. With no major policy action coming forth from the government, the bounce back in equities domestically would track commodities. Unwinding of QE2 over the next quarter is most likely to impact commodities, which would eventually help countries like India combat its trade deficit and inflation. Markets could possibly climb back to the ~5600 levels before turning back. We continue to remain positive in the consumption and healthcare space in the short to medium term. Cyclical would perform with improvement in capex activity only, which still remains distant. Rs.2 hike in diesel, small rejig in duties and a marginal price hike in LPG is a foregone conclusion now. The market would receive the hike well if the magnitude of hike is somewhat steeper than anticipated. Technical support for the Nifty lies at 5420 and 5350 and resistance are at 5520 and 5560”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “We expect the Nifty to remain volatile in a range of 5400-5600. Immediate support for the market is 5450/5390 while resistance lies at 5520/5600. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade positive above 10950 for a target of 11200. The immediate support for the index lies around 10600”.
PINC RESEARCH: “Nifty’s yo-yo during last week has resulted in it leaving behind some interesting pointers. This should possibly assist in sketching some plausible scenarios for the Nifty. 1) Tendency for a faster bounce-back than the pace of declines indicating a shift of sentiment. 2) Strong comeback that has led to the Nifty again entering the trend channel. 3) Oversold technical indicators is also showing a positive crossover. 4) Weekly candlestick chart shows a “Hammer” which is a bullish reversal pattern. The volume has supported the strong up-move. A confirmation should arise for this pattern in the coming week. These factors suggest a potential target of 6050-6100”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is still in a reaction mode and is now at a crucial resistance of 5482. We are now heading into F&O expiry week and so the market is expected to remain volatile and so the levels to watch would be 5300 on the lower side 5570 on the upside... For Monday, The support for the Nifty is at 5300 and resistance at 5482-5570. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 17700 and resistance at 18268-18563”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Next week will be action-packed with an added dose of volatility due to the F&O expiry. With July 1st falling on the last trading day, the markets will also closely watch data on auto and cement sales, besides economic statistics on trade and manufacturing. At the same time, global events will continue to have some bearing on local sentiment. Greece and the US economy will remain in focus. Chinese manufacturing PMI data will also be on the investors` radar”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “After making a low of 2195.90 on Monday, Nifty has given a pull back rally of almost 5.4% in just five days. Now we expect Nifty to move in the range of 5245 and 5610. If it breaches 5245, the short term trend would become negative and it may further go down to 5120. However a successive move above 5610 would open the gate for 5760 in the extreme short term. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5400 and the resistance is 5520. If Nifty breaks 5400, it may further go down to 5320 and then 5245. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5520, the level of 5575-5610 would become the next target”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “After being range-bound for the most part of the week, the markets made handsome gains on the last trading day and closed significantly in the green. The sectoral picture also looked good and barring realty, all sectors closed positive. This week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5600-5750 in the upper side and 5400-5300 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “Indian markets recovered considerably from the major medium-term support range of 5200. The current recovery, even though has the potential to stretch further up, is not expected to mark the medium-term bottom. In other words, the scope for selling to emerge from higher levels is not ruled out completely. The “bullish divergence” in a number of technical indicators, after the heavy sell-off in the recent days is spreading cheer in the market. RSI has bounced back from the oversold region and is nearing the overbought region. MACD is at the verge of a ‘bullish crossover’ with momentum support – however, if this fails to happen, the selling pressure will possibly emerge in the time ahead. But the volume support which the market received in the last day's recovery-run is a supporting factor for optimists. The critical level for NSE Nifty for the week ahead is seen at 5510. Any major upside will happen only if the market manages to cross and sustain above this. Even then, the short-term upside will face extreme resistance at 5605, which happens to be the 200-days Moving Average. A brake above this will be an extreme expectation, especially since the market has almost achieved the minimum required target of the current recovery run. However, the trend is expected to remain intact as long as the Nifty sustains above the critical support of 5320 – a close below this will be unfortunate. The downside support for the week ahead, in such a scenario, will be 5250, followed by the short-term decider of 5175. A failure below the lower mentioned level will possibly take the market to the next leg of medium-term downside”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On weekly charts, a Candlestick is formed with negligible upper shadow and long lower shadow indicating that the buying pressure pulled Nifty to move upside. The body of the candle is formed just at the up sloping trend line which was acting as a strong support since last few weeks. According to this, if market remains decisively above 5400 levels then there can be seen some more bullishness. The momentum indicators RSI and Stochastic oscillator move towards north direction is indicating some strength for the market. For the coming week, volatility can be increased due to the F&O Expiry. At the same time, global events will continue to have some bearing on local sentiment. Overall, strength in the market can be seen for few sessions only if it can hold the levels of 5400 decisively. On the higher side, Nifty can face resistance at 5570/5605 this week while support for the week is seen at 5330 levels”.
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