"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR FRIDAY (24.06.2011)"


Nifty closed at 5,320.00, up by 41.70 points or 0.79 percent over the previous day closing of 5,278.30, after witnessing a low of 5,252.25 and a high of 5,330.60. Sensex closed at 17,727.49, up by 176.86 points or 1.01 percent over the previous day closing of 17,550.63. It touched an intraday low of 17,482.21 and high of 17,754.55.
The markets’ breadth was negative. Out of 2,909 stocks traded, 1,159 stocks advanced, 1,612 stocks declined and 138 stocks remained unchanged. In Sensex, 24 stocks advanced and 6 stocks declined.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 229.21 crore (prov. cash market fig.)
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES:Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open on a flat to positive note and remain range-bound with a positive bias. Support on Nifty is at 5,198 while resistance is at 5,375. Among the sectors, Auto stocks could do well while Oil & Gas stocks could under-perform”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, Nifty witnessed a busy session, wherein, bulls were in command throughout the session, leaving apart a short initial session, and Nifty breached its vital resistance of 5300 level decisively. Despite some profit booking at higher levels Nifty could manage to close near day’s high and consolidated all gains. Volatility was the hallmark of today’s trade, wherein sudden bouts of buying and selling were witnessed by benchmark indices. Nifty regained the vital support level of 5300, which will support the buying momentum in coming sessions. Nifty failed to maintain the vital moving averages and closed below its 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5370, 5425, 5550 & 5539. These levels may act as new ranges in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a little lower level of 19.50%, indicating average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 37.30 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness some recovery amidst range bound movements in coming sessions with higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:Next session’s range for the Nifty may in between 5,290-5,348 and the resistance for the Nifty may be at 5,380 and the key resistance level will be 5401-5410 and support may be 5,252.And 5,252 itself will be the key support level because of the weekly closing day. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 10,480-10,660. If sustains below this range 10,420 and 10,335 may act as a strong support. However, 10,735 may act as strong resistance level above the given range”.
BONANZA ONLINE:Thursday Nifty showed some strength from support at 5250 levels and closed in green with marginal high volumes. Some of largecaps stocks showed recovery from lower levels. Nifty is still trading in 5325-5250 zone and volatility may be seen in this range. Decisive price action may be seen only above 5325 levels or below 5250 levels. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is 5325 If Nifty shows strength above 5325 levels, then rally to 5375/5425 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5325 levels then selling pressure till 5270-5250/5200/5150 may also be seen”.
KARVY STOCK:  The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5320 levels with stop loss placed at 5300, targeting 5350-5380 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): Nifty had a good session but not yet given a buy indication. This can only be considered as a pullback rally after the recent steep fall. The overall sentiment in the domestic market and what we are seeing across the border is not supporting an uptrend. Nifty is having support around 5,245 and 5,171 levels”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):The support at 5,200-5,215 levels had been held. A closing above 5,300 levels had made the short term trend of the market bullish. Since market sentiments remain affected by oversees developments, a cautious stance is recommended”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market managed to close positive for the day but has managed to stay below the crucial 5350 mark. Technically the market looks to be in reaction and so a reaction until 5400 is not ruled out. The support for the Nifty is at 5250 and resistance at 5358-5400. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 17500 and resistance at 17858-17973”.
ANGEL BROKING (Mileen Vasudeo): The placement of momentum oscillators suggests that indices may witness a pullback or a consolidation of the precious down move. Hence in coming trading session if indices trade above 17,755/5,331 then it may rally up to 17,840-17,961/5,360-5,400 levels. On the downside 17,500-17,368/5,263 and 5,200 may act as support for the day”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been taking support near 5245 for last three trading sessions. So 5245 become a short term crucial base of Nifty. Yesterday the bulls were able to manage it at 5320. We expect this pull back rally would be continuing to 5420. However if Nifty breaches 5245, the short term trend would become negative and it may further go down to 5170 and then 5040 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 5245 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5280 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5350. If Nifty breaks 5280, it may further go down to 5245 and then 5170. However, if it is able to sustain above 5350, the level of 5385–5420 would become the next target”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS (DERIVATIVE): “On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5220-5250 level, the level (5200) which consists of the highest OI (i.e. 93.72 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5350-5390 level, the level (5400) which consists of the third highest OI (i.e. 67.79 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS:Technically, yesterday's Nifty closing was encouraging and gives a sense that the benchmark has the wherewithal to gain some more. However, this should be just seen as a retracement of the previous fall. On the upside, 61.8% retracement level of the 5520-5196 fall, placed at 5396 is likely to be a strong hurdle. Traders would do well to lighten commitments as 5400 approaches. As we have been mentioning, only a resumption of the higher-top higher-bottom formation will make the view decisively bullish”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:Today's bounce back was completely on the back of short covering. We need to have certain amount of conviction coming back into the market and this could happen only if nifty manages to hold above 5370 in the near term. Overall the structural trend remains weak as the MACD on the monthly chart is below the zero line which is a very negative sign. Looking at the current trend we believe that around the 5350/5370 range nifty future could again come under selling pressure. Hence, any sharp rally should be used to short-sell or reduce positions. On the lower side important supports are placed at 5267/5241 levels”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMENT:On daily charts, Nifty made a Bullish Engulfing White Candlestick. 5,400 level is still seen as the major resistance level according to the up sloping trend line. For coming trading session, some pull back can be seen as per the bull engulf pattern but on higher side Nifty can face stiff resistance at 5,380 levels , immediate resistance at 5,350 while support for the day can be seen at 5,270/5,220”.
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