"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 04.02.2013 TO 10.02.2013"

At the close, the 30-share index, Sensex fell sharply 322.34 points or 1.6% over previous week to 19,781.19. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dropped 75.75 points, or 1.25%, to 5,998.90.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty sliding lower this week, markets are showing signs of tiredness. Traders will keep a watch on the recent lows of 5988. If these levels fail to hold in the coming week, then a further correction can be expected that could take the Nifty towards the next major supports at 5940”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “Post the RBI policy meeting, the focus is now expected to shift to other domestic and global cues, especially the US debt ceiling and spending cut issues. The up-comingbudget will also take the market's attention. The FM has indicated that, the budget will be a responsible budget which may entail a reduction in fiscal deficit target. While this is positive, we need to wait for the finer details and assumptions behind the same”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After making doji candlestick pattern previous week, Nifty showed selling pressure, which shows bears are having control at the moment. Selling pressure may be continuing below 6000 levels. However, If Nifty maintains above 6000 levels then recovery may also be seen. Traders should not make delivery based positions in stocks, if Nifty unable to maintain above 6000 levels. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 6000.  If Nifty shows strength above 6000 levels then we may see rally till 6060/6115/6175/6225. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 6000 levels then profit booking till 5940/5890/5825/5750 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	6020-6030	6070-6080	5990
For the Week	Buy	6000-6030	6105-6150	5970

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goyal): “Nifty is seen consolidating in a narrow range of 5,940-6,100 now. Till Nifty trades above 5,940, near term up-trend is intact and buying may be considered in dips. In coming week, 5,940 levels shall be crucial deciding level in near term, and index is likely to witness further selling below this level. Below 5,940, likely support levels are 5,870-5,820, while above 6,025, likely target is 6,100-6,150”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “Now the immediate support for Nifty is placed at 5940 and it is expected to achieve in the next week. On the higher side, the zone of 6030-6050 may provide strong resistance if bounce back is seen. A probability of short term downtrend is visible until Nifty is trading below 6120 level. A RSI in daily chart has turned downwards supporting short term downtrend in the S&P CNX Nifty. An intermediate trend of Nifty is up until it is trading above 5750 level”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in Auto, FMCG, IT, Energy, Pharma and Realty if the Nifty sustains above 5950 levels. Short positions can be accumulated in Cements, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, and Metals if the Nifty breaches 5950 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the broad range of 5950-6100 levels for next week. However, a decisive move below 5950 levels would exacerbate the sentiment”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Our markets continue to look good. We remain positive going into the budget. We advise buying quality stocks with every fall in the markets. Out-performance is likely in the sectors of Financials and media and stocks with institutional under-ownership”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Major support for the Nifty lies at 5950 below which long liquidation may bring the Nifty towards its second highest Put base of 5800. At the same time, a move above 6050 may bring renewed buying interest towards 6200. The Bank Nifty continued to trade in a range and witnessed selling pressure around 12850. However, crucial support for the banking index lies at 12500, which is also the highest Put base for the index. A move above 12850 may bring short covering in towards 13200 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically, the market seems trapped and is finding it difficult to cross the 6100 mark. So there is a chance that the market may slip to around 5970-5920 zones. The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5970-5920 and the resistance is at 6100”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Despite a favourable outcome from the RBI's Monetary Policy, indices struggled to sustain at higher levels. Strong selling pressure near the week's high ultimately dragged indices lower to close marginally below last week's low 19884/6007. This has confirmed the bearish implication of the 'Hanging Man' Japanese candlestick pattern mentioned in our previous report. Also, our benchmark indices have also managed to close below the '20-day EMA' for the first time after November 26, 2012. This is also a sign of weakness. In addition there is a negative crossover in weekly 'RSI' momentum oscillators and the daily 'ADX (9)' indicator. Considering all the negative technical evidences, we expect continuation of the negative momentum in the coming week as well. In this scenario, indices are likely to slide towards their next support levels of 19596-19406/5940-5897. Conversely, this week's high of 20204/6112 would now act as resistance in the coming trading session. Only a sustainable move above this level would negate the bearish implication of the 'Hanging Man' pattern. We advise traders to trade with strict stop losses and any intraweek bounce can be used as exit opportunity for existing long positions.”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “With the RBI policy out of the way, the coming week would see some more stock-specific action as the quarterly numbers come in. With the start of February, market expects a run-up to the budget. The near term support for the Nifty remains at 5,965 levels. A move below the critical level would see selling pressure intensify in the near term which could open gateway towards 5,750”.  

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5950 and the resistance is 6090. If Nifty breaks 5950, it may further go down 5910 and then 5820. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 6090, the level of 6120-6180 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 6100-6150 in the upper side and 5900-5850 in the lower side”.

SHAREKHAN:  “Nifty is now expected to head lower till 5960 with resistance around 6043 in the short term. The key supports in the immediate run will be around 5980 and resistance will be at 6043”.

RAJATKBOSE.COM (Rajat Bose): “Major support as of now, in the Nifty, in case it falls below 5988 would be seen between 5965 and 5943 while on the upside major supply zone is located between 6093 and 6114. Only if 6114 is crossed in sustained high volume purchases we can expect 6140 through 6150 being tested”.