"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 13.08.2012 TO 19.08.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex surged 359.81 points, or 2.09% to 17,557.74 for the week ended Aug 10, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty gained 104.70 points, or 2.01%, to 5,320.40 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “While the Sensex/Nifty has been drifting lower in the last few sessions, the underlying trend remains up. Volumes were higher on negative closing sessions, indicating that selling was intense. Traders must be prepared for a short-term correction towards the upper gap area at 17313/5260. Our intermediate upside targets for the Sensex/Nifty are at 18041-18524/5499-5630. Short-term reversal levels for the markets are at 17026/5164, while intermediate reversal levels are at 16598/5032Key support levels for the Nifty to watch early next week are at 5,260”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “The new Finance Minister has made some encouraging comments over the past week on reviving investor interest by addressing issues like fiscal deficit and taxation of foreign entities. Markets are eagerly awaiting follow-up action on these. We maintain that, reforms are a pre-requisite for the markets to move up. GDP estimates have been downgraded by RBI and by various other agencies already. In absence of reforms, there may be rating downgrades which might start flowing in from rating agencies. If this happens, fund flows may dry up, which may push the rupee further down and stoke the imported inflation (especially on the crude oil front)”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed strength for 2nd consecutive week. Buying interest may be continuing above 5350 levels. On downside, Nifty has some support at 5250 levels. Traders may take delivery based positions in good stocks with stoploss levels. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5300. If Nifty shows strength above 5300 levels then we may see rally till 5350/5400/5450/5500. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5300 levels then selling pressure till 5250/5180/5125 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5330-5350	5395	5210
For the Week	Buy	5320-5360	5420-5450	5300

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (5316-5307-5301) would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5312. Above 5316 Nifty could test 5330 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5370-5444. Nifty has support at 5294 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5260-5220-5205-6163”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty is trading at a make or break level as far as the short term trend is concerned. It has a vital support placed at 5280, whereas the recent swing high of 5377 is now a stiff resistance for Nifty. If it manages to surpass and sustain above the level of 5377 then we may see further upside till 5480 and higher. However if it is unable to cross the level of 5377 and breaches the support of 5280 first then there may be a decline till 5200 to 5180 range in the coming few sessions. The level of 5130 continues to remain as a critical support for Nifty”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in FMCG, IT, private banks, pharma, capital goods, metals and cement sectors if the Nifty holds 5,200 levels. Short positions can be assumed in PSU banks and telecom if the Index fails to sustain above 5,380-5,400 levels or below 5,200 levels. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broad range of 5,200-5,400 levels this week”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “While the markets have gone up consecutively for 2 weeks, the rally seems to be losing momentum. To go up from here, markets would require (1) some policy action from the Government--price increases in administered petroleum fuels, bailout of discoms, power tariff hikes, and passing of financial sector related bills in the Parliament- or (2) strong global cues”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty may trade with a positive bias till it holds above 5240. Immediate resistance for the Nifty lies at 5380. A move above these levels may trigger fresh momentum towards 5460. The Bank Nifty is likely to find stiff resistance at its highest Call base of 10500 strikes. On downsides, it has immediate support at 10150. Upward momentum is expected only if it is able to sustain above 10500”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “For coming week, Nifty is expected to remain in a range of 5250-5400 levels with bullish undertone”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The minor impact of 'Shooting Star' was seen during the last two sessions of the week as indices corrected to test strong support levels of 17450/5290, but eventually the Nifty closed above the 5300 mark. At his juncture, the correction can also be construed as a pull-back towards the "Downward Sloping Trend Line" drawn by joining the highs of 18524/5630 (February 22, 2010)-17631/5349 (July 10, 2012). A weekly close above 17727/5386 level would indicate a breakout and a 'Higher Top-Higher Bottom' formation is likely to begin. In this scenario, we may witness immense buying interest among market participants. Hence, this accelerated momentum may push the market higher to test 17900-18050/5450–5500 levels. Conversely, 17450-17313/5290-5260 levels are likely to act as decent support levels in the coming week. A sustainable move below 17313/5260 level may result in a loss of current positive momentum and hence, may drag indices lower to test 17208/5220 mark”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5250 and the resistance is 5400. If Nifty breaks 5250, it may further go down to 5200 and then 5150. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5400, the level of 5440-5510 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5450-5550 in the upper side and 5250-5100 in the lower side”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 5100 (200 DMA-5110) will have a strong support closing below which major trend will turn negative and selling pressure till 4900 levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5380 will act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5500 level”.