"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 06.08.2012 TO 12.08.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex surged 358.74 points, or 2.13% to 17,197.93 for the week ended Aug 03, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty gained 115.85 points, or 2.27%, to 5,215.7 during the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: While the markets have ended lower on Friday, the sharp bounce back from the Nifty lows of 5165, which also coincides with the 200-day EMA does give some hope for the bulls. A move above the previous short term highs of 5258 in the coming week would reverse the current downtrend and lead to a fresh uptrend. Weakness could emerge if the immediate Nifty supports of 5165 are broken”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): We have been consistent in our view that markets would be broadly determined by the ongoing developments in Eurozone Debt crisis, monsoons, domestic inflation and government reforms. Post the ECB and Fed meetings, expectations are low on any immediate stimulus. Inflation may also rise if monsoon activity does not accelerate across India and if crude price rise in line with any further quantitative easing in US/Europe. Thus, reforms seem to be the only potential positive trigger for the markets now.  Given the decelerating economic growth, reforms are needed to reverse the trend and help sustain earnings and valuations for the current fiscal. Initiation of reforms may make us take a more constructive long-term view of the markets and more so, on the investment - led sectors”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Next week, encouraging Job data from US  and Euro Zone activities  will hold the key for our market’s direction. The News, that warren Buffet is buying mortgage lenders in US may support sector specific buying in the next week”.
BONANZA ONLINE: After showing selling pressure for 3 consecutive weeks, Nifty closed in green, which shows that Bulls are trying to take control. If Nifty holds 5200 levels then recovery may be continuing else profit booking may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5200. If Nifty shows strength above 5200 levels then we may see rally till 5250/5340/5400/5450. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5200 levels then selling pressure till 5150/5100/5025 may also be seen.
Duration
Action
Entry Zone (NF)
For Target of
Stop Loss
For Monday
Buy
5240-5260
5320-5340
5215
For the Week
Buy
5250-5280
5365-5400
5215
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED:On Monday (5205-5198)-(5185-5176) would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5191. Above 5205 Nifty could test 5220(Friday’s high), further it could open for 5281-5290-5340-5444. Nifty has support at 5164 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5139-5114-5078-4991”.
GEPL CAPITAL: Nifty appears at a make or breaks level where either side break out above 5260 or 5150 would decide the future course of action. The level of 5260 remains a critical resistance, a break out above which may take it higher till 5350 and beyond. On the downside the level of 5150 is an important support for Nifty. A breach of this level would induce further weakness which may take the Nifty down to 5070 which is a strong support and a trend reversal level”.
KARVY STOCK BROKING:Long positions can be assumed in pharma, IT, consumer durables, banking, energy, utilities and cement sectors if markets hold 5,100 levels. Short positions can be assumed in automobiles, metals and FMCG if the Index fails to sustain above 5,270-5,300 levels or below 5,100 levels. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broad range of 5,100-5,300 this week”.
ICICI SECURITIES:The Nifty may continue to display its consolidated move in the range of 5140-5260. Major support on downsides is at its highest Put base of 5000. The Bank Nifty is likely to find momentum above its major resistance of 10500. On downsides, it has immediate support at 10250. Highest Put base at 10000 levels is expected to act as strong support in the near term”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY):Markets struggled to cross 5250 levels on the upside, whereas on the downside, it found support at 5150 levels. The scenario in the market currently remains uncertain and range bound. Hereafter, the range of 5400-5000 will remain crucial in the near term. Breach below the 5000 mark could see the Index declining sharply to 4800 levels. Put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.40 indicating put position build-up”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): Technically the market is still weak thought it has bounced from a strong technical support of 5030 in a reactive mode and if this reaction continues then it could take the market up to around 5200 zones. Otherwise the down ward logical target is around 4995. From a trading point of view I would trade the short side of the market if it breaches 5075 level”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): Going forward, the weekly high of 17292 / 5247 would act an important resistance for the markets. At this juncture, few technical tools such as, 'RSI-Smoothened' oscillator and '5 & 20 Day EMA' are positively poised. Hence, a move beyond 17292/5247 level may push indices higher to test 17466-17631/5300-5349 levels. These levels almost coincide with the "Downward Sloping Trend Line" resistance near 17500/5325 formed by joining the highs of 21109/6339 (November 5, 2010)- 18524/5630 (February 24, 2012. Conversely, markets have a decent support around 17004/5154 level. A breach of this level would augment pessimism and indices are then likely to test 16598-16467/5032-4991 levels. Range bound activity between 16598/5032 and 17631/5349 is likely to continue for the coming 2 weeks”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5150 and the resistance is 5270. If Nifty breaks 5150, it may further go down to 5090 and then 5030. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5270, the level of 5350-5400 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5350-5450 in the upper side and 5050-5000 in the lower side”.

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