"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 21.05.2012 TO 27.05.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex dropped 140.23 points to 16,152.75 for the week ended May 18, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty lost 37.45 points to 4,891.45 during the week.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets pulling back strongly from the lows of Friday, traders will need to see if the Nifty can cross the previous highs of 4955 in the early part of next week. A move above 4955 would give the bulls an upper hand. If this fails to happen, then the Nifty could once again drift towards the 4789-4700 levels”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “For the next week, markets are likely to follow global cues. Technically, on daily chart Nifty witnessed bull long candlestick formation.  The 200-day SMA placed at 5085 level that will be the critical resistance in upside.  Nifty took support near at horizontal support line placed at 4800 level.  4950 is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from high of 5630 to low of 4530 which is immediate resistance in upside.  Momentum indicator RSI and stochastic turn up from oversold territory, in coming session if nifty opens with positive note then RSI will witness positive crossover”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4850-4960. If moved above this range, it may test 4990 and 5035, while 4810 may act as crucial support level for the next session. Bank-nifty Future is expected to find strong resistance around 9500-9562. It may attract further buying if moved above this range. 9130 may act as strong support level”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Volumes were lower than previous week. Nifty showed selling pressure for 4th consecutive week. After breaking the support level of 5170, the trend has turned bearish and facing selling pressure on rallies. If Nifty holds 4900 levels then recovery may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4900. If Nifty shows strength above 4900 levels then we may see rally till 4975/5050/5125. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4900 levels then selling pressure till 4840/4790/4750/4700 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	4850-4870	4920	4830
For the Week	Buy	4840-4880	4970-5030	4800

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goel): “Value buying enabled Nifty to recover its losses today however, sentiments remains cautious on both global and domestic developments. Markets have become highly volatile both on account of global developments and domestic events. Further downside cannot be ruled out.  Upside resistance exist at 4,950”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “In the immediate term, now the level of 4800 would serve as a support for Nifty. If Nifty manages to sustain above 4800 and clear the level of 4960 then we may see further upside till at least 5120. However in the absence of such confirmation of a break out above 4960, we still advise refraining from long positions. On the downside if Nifty breaches the level of 4800 then we may see further fall till 4700 to 4650 levels”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in consumer durables, pharma, FMCG and software if markets hold 4,800 levels. Short positions can be assumed in metals, cement, auto, capital goods, infrastructure and utilities if the Index fails to sustain above 5,000 levels or goes below 4,800 levels”. 

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty bounced backed from the key support level below 4,800 and closed for the week without losing much. Nifty is having resistance at 4,937, 4,982 and 5,056 while the support is there at 4,817 and 4,743 levels”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Going ahead, markets are likely to follow global cues. However, continued inaction on the part of the government to raise fuel prices following repeated declarations of its intent to ‘bite the bullet’ would further deteriorate investor sentiment about India and make our markets more vulnerable to the effects of negative global developments”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “As expected, after breaching 4950, the Nifty tested its lower support of 4800 last week. Any major short can be expected only if the Nifty is able to sustain above 4950. Above 4950, major resistance may be observed around 5150. Selling pressure may get further aggravated if the Nifty breaches 4800 once again Bank Nifty has found support at its highest Put base of 9000 strike. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty lies at 9450 above which further covering can be expected. On the downside, 9000 should extend strong support”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The overall trend is likely to remain weak as it is trading below all its long term moving averages. The options concentration continues to be at the 5000-strike call option. Among put options the 4700-strike holds the highest open interest followed by the 4800-strike put. The put-call ratio of open interest has decreased which indicates call writing and put buying. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed higher while the average IV of put options ended at 22.20%. Nifty VIX has increased last week and is expected to remain volatile in the short term. The index may find intermediate support around 4750-4780 levels and resistance near 5000 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically though the market has bounce back from strong technical supports but somehow structurally it gives an impression that the worst is not over as yet and some more action is still needed for the market to form a strong bottom. A dip to 4761 would be welcome if the market has to have some strength. Technically we could see an upside as well perhaps to around 5080 zones in the days to come. From a trading point of view I would buy dips as long as 4761 holds. The crucial support for the Nifty is at 4853-4800 and the resistance is at 4950-5075”. 

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The weekly chart depicts a Japanese candlestick pattern which resembles a 'Bullish Hammer'. The said pattern will be confirmed only if indices sustain above the high of 16391/4957. Moreover, the daily 'RSI-Smoothened' oscillator is in the oversold territory. The positive impact of this oscillator would be seen above 16391/4957 level. In this scenario, indices are likely to bounce towards 16700-16840/5050-5090 levels. Conversely, the Friday's low of 15809/4789 is likely to act as a decent support in coming trading sessions. A violation of this level would clearly increase the chances of a further fall and, as a result indices may slide towards 15678/4695 level”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 4770 and the resistance is 4960. If Nifty breaks 4770, it may further go down to 4720 and then 4640. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 4960, the level of 5040-5130 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5100-5150 in the upper side and 4800-4700 in the lower side”.

SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “Since nifty is in oversold territory hence pull back are acceptable but if nifty manages to hold 4900 level then 4920/4960/4990 are the resistance levels while in downside 4870/4830/4800 are the support levels”.

INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Nifty closed the week with a strong recovery from the weekly lows. And the rise on Friday comes on back of rising volumes. Going forward, Nifty has next psychological resistance at 5,000 marks. On the downside, 4,730 is the support”.