The 30-share index, Sensex dropped 538.10
points, or 3.20% to 16,292.98 for the week ended May. 11, 2012. On the other
hand, the broad based NSE Nifty lost 157.95 points, or 3.11%, to 4,928.9 during
the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty drifting down further,
the underlying trend remains firmly down. Traders will need to watch if the
Nifty can hold above the 4900 supports in the coming week. Else, the Nifty
could slide down further towards the 4800-4700 levels”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen
Shah): “Future
RBI action and foreign flows will likely be dictated by Government’s reform
initiatives and the outlook on the monsoons. We believe that, markets will
start moving up sustainably, only once there are indications of reform initiatives being taken up by
the Government”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Next week, Political
tensions in the Euro area look set to heat up again with the publication of
economic growth data for the first quarter in Europe. Overall, short positions
were made in Future and Options. Option data is indicating resistance in 5200-5300
zone and support in 4900-4700 zones.”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in
the range 4880-4990. If Nifty moved above 4990 it may test 5035-5045 level,
while if sustained below 4880 it may test 4835. Bank-Nifty has a strong
resistance around 9561 while strong support comes at 9250 and 9090”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed
selling pressure for 3rd consecutive week. Bears are having control at the
moment and weakness may be continuing below 4900 zone. If Nifty holds 4900
levels then recovery may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend
deciding level is 4900. If Nifty shows strength above 4900 levels then we may
see rally till 4975/5050/5125. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4900 levels then
selling pressure till 4840/4790/4750/4700 may also be seen”.
Duration
|
Action
|
Entry Zone (NF)
|
For Target of
|
Stop Loss
|
For Monday
|
Buy
|
4900-4920
|
4960-4980
|
4880
|
For the Week
|
Buy
|
4870-4920
|
5005-5050-5080
|
4840
|
BONANZA
PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goel): “Next big trigger will be the inflation data for the
month of April which is due next week. Only a big positive surprise in the
inflation data will improve the sentiments,
otherwise the short term trend will remain negative only”.
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (4935-4945)-(4956-4965) would be sell levels. Weak Markets won’t cross 4949. Above 4965 Nifty could test 4976 (Friday’s high),
further it could open for 5009-5073-5125-5248-5268. Nifty has support at 4906 (Friday’s low). Below it
could open for 4768-4531”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “The
trend continues to appear weak till the time Nifty trades below the level of
5040. On the down side it has a major support placed at 4880 for next few
sessions. The level of 4880 is a make or break and a trend reversal level for
Nifty. If the trend has to turn bullish Nifty should not break the level of
4880 else it may be susceptible to further downside risk. One must remain
cautious till the time Nifty trades below the level of 5040”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Next week, April inflation data will be out. If
inflation subsides, markets could anticipate interest rate cuts in the wake of
such poor IIP numbers. Many stocks have corrected heavily and value has
emerged, creating opportunity for long term investors. With the Finance Bill
having been passed, inaction on the part of the government to raise fuel prices
would invite further selling at any negative news flow. One should use any
volatility to accumulate quality and low beta stocks”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has breached its important support of 4950 in Friday’s
session. Inability to move above these levels may drag the index towards 4800.
On the higher side, 5150 will continue to act as a stiff resistance in the near
term. Bank Nifty has accumulated fresh short positions in the last week. Among
stocks, most of the PSU banking stocks like SBI and PNB garnered fresh short
build up. Bank Nifty has major support around 9100. Any short covering can be
expected only if the Bank Nifty is able to sustain above 9750”.
SMC
TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “In the week gone by Nifty cost-of-carry ended negative indicating short
build-up. Nifty is expected to remain weak as it is trading below all its long
term moving averages. The options concentration continues to be at the
4900-strike put option with an open interest of above 70 lakh shares. Among
call options the 5200-strike holds the highest open interest of above 70 lakh
shares followed by the 5100-strike call with above 50 lakh shares. The put-call
ratio of open interest decreased and closed at 0.94 levels which indicating
call writing and put buying. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed
higher at 21.56% while the average IV of put options ended at 22.20%. Nifty VIX
has increased last week and is expected to remain volatile in the short-term. The
index may find intermediate support around 4850 levels and resistance near 5050
levels”.
GABA
& GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is
stretched but there is no sign of strength witnessed seen on the charts as yet.
The next logical technical target on the downside is 4853 but a strong technical
support exists at 4766. From a trading point of view I would trade the short
side of the market unless I see strength. On daily basis, the market looks
stretched and so a reaction is not ruled out but there is no sign of strength
and so our logical target of 4853 still is valid. The crucial support for the
Nifty is at 4915-4853 and the resistance is at 5075-5100”.
ANGEL
BROKING (Technical): “We are now observing a series of 'Narrow
Range' body formations on the daily chart. This indicates uncertainty among the
market participants and signals probable exhaustion of a current negative
momentum. Momentum oscillators on the daily chart are placed well inside the
over sold territory. However, we must also
take into consideration that the oversold indication of momentum oscillators
signals loss of momentum and does not necessarily indicate a reversal. Hence,
only if indices sustain above Friday's high of 16447/4976, we may witness a
bounce up to 16700-16840/5050-5090 levels.
A violation of Friday's low (16233/4906) would clearly increase the
chances of a further fall and, as a result, indices may slide towards 16000-15860/4850-4800
levels. We are of the opinion that traders who intend to trade with a positive
bias should enter the market only if indices sustain and close above the weekly
high of 16945/5125”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For
the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 4880 and the resistance is 5010.
If Nifty breaks 4880, it may further go down to 4820 and then 4770. However, if
Nifty is able to sustain above 5010, the level of 5090-5130 would become the
next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For
the next week, Nifty likely to trade in
the range between 5100-5150 in the upper side and 4850-4700 in the lower side”.
SWASTIKA
INVESTMART: “The
Market is expected to remain volatile on account of Monthly Inflation data of
April will be due on Monday, 14 May 2012; besides Volatility in Exchange rates
and Global political & Economic issues will be the major factor that will
decide the further trend of markets. Apart from these, Q4FY12 and year ending
March 2012 (FY 2012) Result of giants like L&T, Bajaj Auto, State Bank of
India, Tata Steel, and Coal India may impact stocks specific movement”.
EMKAY GLOBAL: “It’s the third day, when Nifty has closed in
red. But the trading range of last two days was quite dull and narrow as if bears are taking a breather. It looks like Nifty is finding support at the 61.8%
retracement of the rally from 4,531 to 5,630. At this point of time it is hard
to say whether this is merely a temporary pause or a short term bottom. Now
those entire masterminds will say that medium term trend of Nifty is down and
will change only above 5,280. So either the next down leg will begin from here itself or it will start after a short term
bounce. In either case the possibility of 4,766 (i.e. 78.6% retracement area)
is bright. Possibility of short term bounce will open up only above the level
of 5,040. In that case there is a fair possibility that Nifty will again see
the level of 5,124, before the next down leg begins”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “The
concerning part is the way it effortlessly broke below the important support
level of 5,080 which is 50% retracement of 4,531-5,629, during last week
without any effort of making pullback. Now it is trading precariously near the
last support area of 4,897 (66.66% Gann Retracement level of 4,531-5,629),
weekly close below 4,897 will result in opening of huge downside till 4,500
over medium term. The last hope is placed on 61.8% Gann Retracement Fan drawn
from 2,252 which gave support to the Nifty last time around at 4,531. Even
though chance are slim, if Nifty manages to pull itself above 5,132 on weekly
closing basis then we can assume this downturn has finally got over and we may
enter into some kind of consolidation mode. Weekly range for the Nifty is
advocated in the range of 4,800-5,132”.
R K GLOBAL: “In the week ahead, we
expect loads of volatility in our markets as domestic and international macro
economic factors continue to put pressure on the market performance. Despite
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s decision to defer the general
anti-avoidance rules (GAAR) by one year, foreign inflows continued to be weak
with INR depreciating to a considerable extent. These could further fuel the
market’s downfall. Unless these issues are not addressed soon, equities as an
asset class will continue to take a beating”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty 4830 mark
will have a strong support closing below which Major trend will turn negative
and selling pressure till 4700 levels could be witnessed. On upside, 5030 will
act as immediate resistance, sustaining above which the next level would be 5100
level”.
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