The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 156.06 points or 0.81% to 19,135.96, its lowest closing level since 19 April 2011. The Sensex lost 276.97 points at the day's low of 19,015.05 in late trade. The index gained 64.48 points at the day's high of 19,356.50 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 35.95 points or 0.62% to 5,749.50, its lowest closing level since 19 April 2011. The Nifty hit an intraday low of 5,706.05 in late trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.03% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.57%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth, indicating the health of the market, was weak. On BSE, 1954 shares declined while 944 shares advanced. A total of 98 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was positive breadth earlier in the day. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 19 declined while the rest advanced.
The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2973 crore, lower than Thursday's turnover of Rs 3087 crore.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, today Nifty remained in its short term downward trend by closing on bearish note for the fifth continuous session. Yesterday, Nifty breached the ongoing triangle pattern in downward direction, today it declined further. In addition of losing the vital support of 5760 & 5720, Nifty moved towards its 100 day’s SMA placed at 5702. Owing to today’s weak session, Nifty closed below its 9 & 15 day’s SMA placed at 5813 & 5826. This may spread cautious feeling among the buyers. Once again, the bears outnumbered the bulls, which is a weakening trend for market. At closing, Nifty successfully maintained its closing above 50 & 100 day’s SMA 5624 & 5700. These levels may act as new supports in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX corrected a little higher and recorded at 19.58%, indicating lesser volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 49.28 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness range bound movements in coming sessions”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5722-5785. Below this range 5695 may act as a strong support level while 5835 is a strong resistance level. In the next session, Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11390-11630. If moved beyond the range 11230 and 11000 might be other support levels. 11700 and 11780 may act as strong resistance levels”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty is trading in 5950-5700 range for 4 weeks. Directional move may be seen if Nifty maintains above 5950 or below 5700 levels. Within 5950-5700 range volatility may be seen. RBI monetary policy on 3rd May can play important role in sentiment preparation. Traders should be cautious. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5750. If Nifty shows strength above 5750 levels then we may see rally to 5825/5880/5950/6050 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5750 levels then profit booking till 5700/5640/5550 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Sell | 5750-5800 | 5630-5600 | 5820 |
For the Week | Sell | 5750-5850 | 5600-5550 | 5900 |
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note on Monday. Trade long above 5750 level else from 5730 level, with stop loss of 5700. Alternatively trade short if Nifty fails to cross 5800 level else below 5700 level”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “We expect the Nifty to remain volatile before the monetary policy announcement. However, we expect the Nifty to move in the range of 5630-5900 during the week. An immediate hurdle for the index can be experienced around 5830 while an important support stands close to 5630. The Bank Nifty will be more impacted by the outcome of the monetary policy and can witness volatile movement. Any move below 11500 levels can drag the banking index to 11300 levels while on the higher side, 11900 levels will continue to exert pressure”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): ”... ‘Market is now typically in a sell mode but a sharp reaction is not ruled out… strong resistance is at 5820’. The market unfolded as expected and found resistance in the upper regions of 5800 and sold off but taking care to find support near the 5700 zones… technically the market is still weak and may find some support near 5683 zones. The support for the Nifty is at 5700-5683 and resistance at 5820. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 19120-18935 and resistance at 19225”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “The immediate concern is whether the Nifty will once again slide below the critical 200-DMA level and 5,700 after that. If it does, there might be further selling pressure. FIIs have been net sellers of late. One has to see how they approach the market in May. Overall, the sideways consolidation pattern could persist in May also, as quite a few key companies are yet to announce their results. At the same time, inflation continues to be sticky, stoking fear of another rate hike by the RBI on May 3. There is a lack of catalyst to lift the market out of the current range. Hence, avoid getting adventurous for the time being and wait for more clarity on the direction of the main indices”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Technically, Nifty is facing a crucial support near 5690. However, the daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been facing a stiff in the band of 5915 and 5970. If Nifty breaches of 5690, it may further go down to 5530 in the short term. However, if Nifty is able maintain above 5970, an upward rally might take it to 6050 and then 6180 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 5690 of the long positions.
For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5690 and the resistance is 5810. If Nifty breaks 5690, it may further go down to 5620 and then 5530. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5810, the level of 5880-5970 would become the next target”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The Critical Level for NSE Nifty is expected to be 5695 for the week to come – a break down below this can accelerate the downside further. In such a scenario, the first and major support will be 5625, which happens to be the 200-days Exponential Moving Average. Market can possibly reverse the downside at around this range and get back into the bull-trend. However, if this fails to workout, the downside will extend further towards the 'medium term' critical level of 5585. To be on the positive side, the market needs to find support at around either of these levels. Failure below this can be disappointing for the short-term. However, since the market has almost tested the critical level mentioned above, the scope of a recovery is not ruled out, atleast towards the second half of the trading week. If this happens, the first resistance for the week to come will be 5835, followed by 5930. The technical indicators are still with the negative view. Stochastic Oscillators are continuing the fall. MACD has turned bearish, with momentum support and the RSI is not hurrying towards the oversold region. These, along with the dipping money flow, are troubling the outlook. To sum up, technically the indications are towards further downside, but any downside can find support at the levels mentioned above. In such a scenario the possibility for recovery is seen the days to come. Once again, any surprise announcement from the RBI policy meeting will direct the market in the coming week”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets were in consolidation mood this week and interest rate sensitive sectors like banking and realty were the ones that took severe correction. This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5850-6000 in the upper side and 5640-5550 in the lower side”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “The near term outlook on Nifty continues to be cautious. The decisive crossover of the trend line resistance mentioned above is imperative for the further up move. If that happens, Nifty can rally up to 6181, the year 2011 high made on 4th January. On the downside, the benchmark took a support at the lower band of the Bollinger on Friday as shown in the daily chart below. A fall below 5693, the bottom made on 19th April, can result in a quick sell-off which can take the benchmark to about 5575, where the trend line adjoining 5232 and 5348, the bottoms made on 25th February and 21st March respectively, presents a support as shown in the daily chart below. Below 5575, the next support would come around 5500 where the trend line adjoining 5177 and 5232, the bottoms made on 11th February and 25th February respectively, presents a support”.
KOTAK WEALTH MANAGEMENT (Rajesh Iyer): “Indian markets have shown a mild correction this week on account of the F&O expiry. All other markets have seen a decent up move due to the weakness in the Dollar Index. In the near future Nifty should range between 5,500-6,000 with slightly higher volatility because of the result season and fluctuating crude prices. Forthcoming RBI policy could have an impact on Indian equities in case RBI does a 50 bps repo rate hike”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 19169/5753 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19323–19511/5801–5852 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 19169/5753 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18982–18828/5702–5655 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING-TECHNICAL (Mileen Vasudeo): “After a steep rally for consecutive 11 trading sessions from 17792 to 19811/5348 to 5944 levels, markets are witnessing a time-wise correction. On the weekly charts for the past four weeks, markets are trading in a band of 19811 to 18976/5944 to 5693 levels. At present, prices have closed near the lower band of the range. The immediate swing low of 18976/5693 holds significance. Any close below this level may lead indices to test 50 % (18801/5647 level) or 61.8 % (18563/5576 level) Fibonacci retracement levels of prior upward impulse wave. On the upside, resistance is at 19540–19640/5850–5900 levels any move beyond these levels would resume the upside momentum to test 20210–20530/6051–6150 levels”.
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