Indian markets continued to fall for the sixth day on Monday. The market did not benefit from the news that US troops have killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. It also chose to ignore largely positive economic reports on trade data, manufacturing PMI and core sector growth. Traders and investors were nervous ahead of RBI`s policy announcement on Tuesday. FOR DETAILS, “READ HERE”.
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Review today will set the tone for the Indian stock market. It is expected that RBI will hike policy rates by 25 bps. However market is divided on the quantum of rate hike. 60% feels it would be 25 bps andthe rest feels it to be 50 bps.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty remained in its short term downward trend by closing on bearish note for the sixth continuous session. On Friday, Nifty breached the vital support level of 5750, today it declined further and breached the sanctity of 5700 level. In addition of losing the vital support of 5720, Nifty breached its 100 day’s SMA placed at 5702. Chart wise, Nifty is forming higher lows and lower highs, which is a bearish continuation pattern. Owing to today’s weak session, Nifty closed below its 9 & 15 day’s SMA placed at 5810 & 5813. This may spread cautious feeling among the buyers. Once again, the bears outnumbered the bulls, which is a weakening trend for market. At closing, Nifty successfully maintained its closing above 50 & 100 day’s SMA 5629 & 5697. These levels may act as new supports in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX moved a little higher and recorded at 20.80%, indicating lesser volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 45.75 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness range bound movements in coming sessions”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5687-5752 below this range 5661 and 5610 may act as a strong support levels while 5785 and 5835 is a strong resistance levels. In the next session, Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11111-11350 and 11440 and 11660 may act as strong resistance levels while 10880 may act as a strong support level. Banking index is expected to show high volatility in the next session on account of RBI Credit policy”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long if it holds above 5700 level targeting 5735-5750 levels, with stop loss at 5685. Alternatively trade short below 5685 targeting lower supports of 5650 and 5630”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “The markets continued its downtrend for the seventh consecutive day ahead of the RBI policy review meet scheduled tomorrow. We have seen minor correction in gold and crude as well given the mixed trends in the global equity markets. Backing this downside was the FIIs who have been consistently on a selling mode for the past couple of sessions. Investors were reluctant to carry forward their positions as RBI is expected to hike the interest rate by 25-50 bps. Although a 25 bps hike is discounted in the markets, if we see a 50 bps or more hike in the key rates, then we may see markets negatively reacting to it. Sectors which would be in focus would be the rate sensitive sectors like realty, infrastructure, banking, auto etc. The market breadth, indicated weakness”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): ”... ‘Technically the market is still weak and may find some support near 5683 zones’ and the markets unfolded as expected weakened and finding support closer to our support of 5682…technically the market is still weak and the next line of defence if it breaks 5683 is 5652…however a reaction is not ruled out as the market is in atypical sideways mode. The support for the Nifty is at 5683-5652 and resistance at 5770. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 18935-18850 and resistance at 19225”.
ANGEL BROKING (Mileen Vasudeo): “Markets opened higher but selling gradually picked up as the day progressed which lead the indices to close in red. On the daily chart, we are observing that indices have tested the immediate swing low of 18,976/5,693 but have closed above it. However, the present closing is below the 200 day SMA which is sign of weakness. Traders are advised to abstain from trading till the RBI monetary policy is declared and a clear direction emerges in the price trend. If indices trade below 19,950/5,680 levels then they are likely to test 18,800-18,725/5,650-5,624 levels. However a bounce up to 19,200-19,300/5,765-5,790 cannot be ruled out as the hourly chart is in an oversold zone”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “The central bank, which has been trying to walk a tight rope between managing inflation and sustaining growth, is widely expected to hike benchmark rates by another 25 bps. But, there have been some murmurs that the RBI could go for an aggressive 50 bps hike. A 50 bps hike will be short-term negative for realty, banking and auto sector specifically”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Technically, Nifty has been moving in a band of 5680 and 5950 for last one month. So 5680 and 5950 become short term crucial support and resistance of Nifty respectively. We expect the range bound movement would be continuing for another few days. If Nifty breaks 5680, it may further go down to 5530. However a successive breach of 5950 would open the gate for 6050 and then 6180 in the extreme short term. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5680 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5750. If Nifty breaks 5680, it may further go down to 5645 and then 5610. However, if it is able to sustain above 5750, the level of 5780–5815 would become the next target”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5640-5660 level, the level (5600) which consists of the third highest OI (i.e. 47.36 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5780-5800 level, the level (5800 which consists of the third highest in OI (i.e. 35.21 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 19,069/5,721 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,183–19,368/ 5,755–5,809 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 19,069/5,721 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18,884–18,770/5,668–5,634 levels”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty continued selling pressure for 5th consecutive day. Nifty managed to close above 5700 levels but Nifty closed below its 200 DMA (5749) levels. Monetary policy on Tuesday may play important role in sentiment preparation. On downside, Nifty has support in 5600-5640 zone and resistance in 5700-5750 zones. For Daily Purpose, Trend deciding level is 5700. If Nifty shows strength above 5700 levels, then rally to 5750/5800/5850 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5700 levels then profit booking till 5640-5600/5550 may also be seen”.
FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE” 
No comments:
Post a Comment