The 30-share index, Sensex climbed 494.97 points, or 2.96% to 17,233.98 for the week ended Jan. 27, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty surged 156.10 points, or 3.09%, to 5,204.7 during the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets moving up further and ending with gains for the fourth consecutive week, the underlying trend remains up and is yet to show any signs of reversal. The Nifty has also tested our targets of 5200. Further upside targets are now at 5250. Downside supports to watch for any weakness are at 5180-5160”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (SHRIKANT CHOUHAN): “Nifty has strong support at 5,130 levels. Current Trend of the market in the short term is positive. Up move in the market will face stiff resistance at 5,220 levels as this is 200 days moving average, sustaining above the same will lead to higher levels in markets of 5,300 and 5,400. On the lower side, breach of 5,130 will be viewed negatively for lower level targets of 5,050 and 4,950”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting good gains in last session, Nifty witnessed a very good session and closed with robust gains. Level wise, closing above the threshold 5200 levels may extend support to the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed strong sentiments and all segments closed on positive note. On account of this firmness, bulls cemented their control from the bears. On account of firm performance, Nifty remained above its vital 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5044, 4968, 4830 and 4948. VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 21+, thus it indicates lesser than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 75.89 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some volatile movements in forthcoming session”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5140-5252. If sustained below this range Nifty may test 5100-5070 levels. Above the given range 5300 and 5333 are major hurdles. Bank Nifty has a major hurdle at 9960 if crossed it may test 10125 and 10250 while if sustained below 9670 it may face more selling pressure”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed good strength for 4th consecutive week, which shows that bulls are having control at the moment. Most of Global markets are showing recovery and Nifty is also showing momentum strength. Buying momentum may be continuing above 5200 levels. However, if Nifty don’t maintain above 5200 levels then profit booking may also be seen. Traders should trade with stoploss. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5200. If Nifty shows strength above 5200 levels then we may see rally 5270/5350/5400/5450. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5200 levels then selling pressure till 5125/5060/4970/4900 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Sell | 5220-5240 | 5150 | 5250 |
For the Week | Sell | 5240-5280 | 5080 | 5310 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Nifty has gained more than 10% in a short duration of a month’s time. RBI's move has helped in bolstering the confidence in Indian equities, further aiding the uptrend. However, after the recent gains, profit booking at higher levels of 5200-5220 cannot be ruled out. On downside 5050 and then 4950-4940 will act as major support levels for the short term”.
KARVY STOCK BROKING: “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in the Nifty if it sustains above 5,200 levels or from 5,180 with a stop loss at 5,150 for targets of 5,250 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Strong EURO lifted the sentiments in metal stocks. Rupee appreciation helped the broader market sentiments. Nifty opened above the 5,200 mark which was supported by the heavy weight stocks like Reliance and Infosys. The markets came down as of selling seen in some of the stocks like Banking and FMCG. The short term RSI is indicating heavy over bought situation. The world economic forum in DAVOS, the Policy makers from European Union shared their ideas to pull down the euro zone from debt crisis. As the technical indicators are on the verge of giving selling indication one should reduce long positions especially at around 5,250 levels”.
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday 5192-5181-5173 would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5186. Above 5192 nifty could test 5217 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5435-5648-5948. Nifty has support at 5162 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5130-5054-4954-4873-4793-4679”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Going forward, the investors would be keenly watching the sector/industry specific development on the policy front, discussion of the industry with the govt in the run-up to the Union Budget. Developments of the Eurozone have taken a backseat now and risk capital is moving towards equities world over leading to positive sentiments. Going by the style and characteristic of FII Investments, we believe, that they are likely to continue with their Investments in the emerging market space where monetary easing process has commenced thus taking the market higher over the next few months lest external exigency. We recommend investors to continue to stay invested in quality companies. News flow emanating from the run up to the budget will create opportunity to trade”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty may continue to trade with a positive bias if it sustains above its 200 DMA of 5210. However, the Nifty may exhibit consolidation for some time around its 200 DMA before taking any directional movement. A buy on decline strategy may be used for range bound movements. On the downsides, 5130 should extend immediate support to it. The Banking index observed some breather after testing 10000 levels post the surprise CRR cut. Both PSU and private sector banking stocks observed a sharp run up last week. Immediate resistance for the banking index lies around 10000 levels while 9650 should act as strong support”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Hereafter, the range of 5200-4900 will remain crucial in the near term, and the move is expected to remain volatile with downward bias. If Nifty slips below the 5100 mark, it could slide to 4900 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the contrary, the index may face stiff resistance at 5200-5250 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest closed lower at 1.40 levels. The options open interest concentration continued to be at the 5200-strike call with the highest open interest of above 47 lakh shares. Among put options, the 4800-strike taking the total open interest to 53 lakh shares, with the highest open interest among put options. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 19.50% while the average IV of put options closed at 19.11%. The Nifty is expected to remain in a broad range of 4900-5200 levels with an intermediary support at around 5100 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The week opened on a quiet note, but the RBI's Monetary Policy on January 24, 2012, gave a boost to the markets. This was followed by a strong rally in Reliance Industries along with some of the Capital Goods and IT counters. Hence, markets have closed well above the ‘Downward Sloping Trend Line’ drawn by joining July 8, 2011, weekly high of 19132/5740 and October 28, 2011, weekly high of 17908/5400. Indices are now heading towards another ‘Downward Sloping Trend Line’ drawn by joining November 10, 2010, weekly high of 21076/6336 and July 29, 2011, weekly high of 18945/5702. The placement of this trend line almost coincides with the 200-day SMA placed around 17332/5202. Therefore, markets are hovering around the stiff resistance zone of 17384-17332/5220-5202. Further, we are now observing a candlestick pattern, which resembles a ‘Hanging Man’. The said pattern gives a bearish implication and needs a confirmation in the form of closing below the low of the ‘Hanging Man’, which is 17106/5162. In this scenario, indices may lose the current positive momentum and may slide towards 16757-16447/5055-4955 levels. Conversely, the positive crossover in weekly ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator is still intact along with the positively poised daily ADX (9) indicator. The impact of these technical evidences would be seen after a sustainable move beyond 17384/5220 level. In this case, indices may rally towards the next resistance levels of 17702-17908/5326-5400”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a strong pull back rally of almost 13.7% in a time span of just one month. Now it is likely to move in the range of 4880 and 5260. If Nifty is able to sustain above 5260, an upward rally might carry it to 5400 in the extreme short term. However, some leading indicators (like Stochastic & RSI) are giving over bought signal. So a short term correction to 4880 can not be ruled out. For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5130 and the resistance is 5260. If Nifty breaks 5130, it may further go down to 5040 and then 4880. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5260, the level of 5320-5400 would become the next target”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The critical resistance level for NSE Nifty for the week ahead is seen at 5225-5300. A sustained upside is expected only if the index sustains above this level. But the pattern which the candlestick formed in the last trading day adds concerns and makes the above mentioned level critical. The first support on downside will be 5100, followed by 4980 - the latter being the 100days Moving Average”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “It was another week of positive closing with both benchmark and all sectoral indices closing in the green. CRR cut by RBI also played important role in the robust performance as all interest rate sensitive sectors made significant gains. For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5250-5400 in the upper side and 5000-4850 in the lower side”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “Auto and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveiling monthly sales volume data for January 2012 from Wednesday, 1 February 2012.The share buyback programme of Reliance Industries (RIL) begins on 1 February 2012 and close on 19 January 2013. Q3 Result of giants like LIC Housing Finance, Indian Bank, ICICI Bank, Punjab National Bank, IDBI Bank, Dabur India, TVS Motor, NMDC, Siemens, Mahindra Satyam, ONGC, Marico, RCF, Corporation Bank, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Power Finance Corporation, Hindustan Copper, HPCL may impacted stocks specific movement”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “The entire month of January 2012 has been cheerful for the Indian equity markets, will the rally continue in February too? To analyze that one must consider the facts that Nifty is currently trading at its 200 day moving average. Historically 200 DMA has acted as a strong resistance for markets and the corrections from there have been sharp. Further the rise in Nifty for the entire month has been sharp without any meaningful profit booking. This makes Nifty even more vulnerable to profit booking. Any recovery in dollar rates vs. rupees can also aide in profit booking. So at these levels, caution is advised because a correction from current level could take Nifty to 4,980 levels on the downside. On the flip side, the upside from here is limited to 5,250 where Nifty will meet resistance from the downward sloping trendline”. (source: myiris)
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows positive sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing positive crossover in weekly chart, which shows supports are good for buying opportunity. Nifty closed above the 65 day moving average (4916) indicating the short term trend could be turning positive. Short terms stochastic are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 5070-4975. The market setup is somewhat positive with trading range between 5000-5350 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5265-5390 and supports are at 5000-4905. If Nifty trades below 5050, it may take supports at 4905. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5150-5220 and supports at 4950-4860. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17700-18000 and supports at 16700-16350. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10200-10500 and supports at 9600-9300”.
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “Closing above 5,250 on weekly basis will result in breakout of the downward channel and fresh buying may emerge in Nifty which will result into Nifty going up to 5,370 levels in coming week, which is 23.6% retracement of 2,252-6,335 range. However, failing to close above 5,250 during next week will result in continuation of corrective pattern going on since 2nd week of November, 2010. We are maintaining our view that Nifty might give some kind of correction in coming week but we are reducing our downside target for Nifty till 5,050 from earlier 4,965. Such dip could be bought for higher levels. Range for the coming week is advocated between 5,050-5,370”.
R K GLOBAL: “In the week ahead, as the Q3FY’12 earnings season is in its peak and next batch of Q3FY’12 results will dictate the near-term trend on the bourses. Auto and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveiling monthly sales volume data for Jan’12 next week. The share buyback programme of RIL, which begins on Wednesday, 1 Feb. ’12 is also expected to add some vitality to the bourses. Moreover, the assembly polls in Uttarakhand and Punjab will go to polls on 30 January and Manipur on 28 January might see some repercussion”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5280 levels on closing basis will continue to be the Major Resistance. If we cross this, 5370 level would become the next valid move. On the downside, we may witness a strong support near 5000 psychological levels but closing below this level for consecutive two or more session may trigger another downfall till 4900 levels”.
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