"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR MONDAY (02.01.2012)"

"WISH YOU ALL A VERY VERY HAPPY, PROSPEROUS, PROMISING AND FULFILLING NEW YEAR".

At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex lost 89.01 points or 0.57% at 15,454.92 with 23 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 21.95 points or 0.47% at 4,624.30 with 34 components posting drop.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets drifting down further for the fourth consecutive session, immediate lows to watch are now at 4602. A close below these supports in the coming week could see the Nifty heading towards the next major lows of 4531. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 4688”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting significant losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a weak session and closed with loss. Level wise, closing below the threshold 4650 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed feebly positive sentiments, segments, like small-cap and mid-cap were feebly positive. But owing to weakness in large-caps, bulls lost the control to the bears but with reduced margin. Due to severe selling Nifty lost significantly and closed below its vital 9, 14, 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4688, 4698, 4940 & 4976. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 27+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 39.02 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some weak movements in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “If Nifty sustained below 4600, it may test 4550 and 4490. However, if sustains above 4600 nifty is expected to face resistance near 4670 and 4710. Bank Nifty if sustains below 7900 may test 7830 and 7777 levels”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing recovery previous week, Nifty showed selling pressure and closed in red below 4650 levels. Bears are having control at the moment. Nifty has some support at 4600 levels, if Nifty hold it then recovery may be seen else selling pressure may be continuing. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4600-4625. If Nifty shows strength above 4625 levels then we may see rally 4700/4770/4825/4900. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4600 levels then selling pressure till 4530/4450/4400 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	4640-4660	4580	4680
For the Week	Sell	4640-4680	4550-4500	4720

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Investors are cautious and reluctant to take any fresh position as we move into next year. Focus will shift to the earning season which starts from second week of January. Corporate India was struggling with Inflation and interest in H1. We expect Q3 results to be worse than Q2 led by continued demand pressure and sharp rupee depreciation - which would not only increase input prices impacting operating margins but would also lead to continuing MTM losses on forex borrowings for second quarter in a row. Investors will be looking forward to the guidance by the management for the next calendar. Markets will also be looking at the cues to the possible interest rate cuts, assembly elections in some of the major states and the union budget".

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The choppiness in the market decelerated as market approached F&O expiry. The January series has started with lower rollover in comparison with recent months in tune of 67% only. Technically, Nifty has short term support near 4550 level; below this market may face bloodbath. On the flip side every bounce in market will face lots of supply with resistance of 4800-4850 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest moves up first time in many weeks to 0.99 levels from previous week of 0.88 levels. The options open interest concentration continued to be at the 5000-strike call with the highest open interest of above 41 lakh shares. Among put options, the 4500-strike is taking the total open interest to 45 lakh shares, with the highest open interest among put options The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 24.98% on Friday, while the average IV of put options moved higher to close at 26.02%. The Nifty is expected to remain in a broad range of 4500-4900 levels, with an intermediary support at around 4600 levels. The movements may remain mixed amid increased volatility, with resistance near 4850 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is still weak and lower levels are possible in the days to come and there exists strong resistance near 4700-4800 zone. The support for the Nifty is at 4570 and resistance at 4700-4750. From trading point of view, I would sell rallies until 4800”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The fall seen during the later part of the week, after testing the 20-Day EMA, suggests that 16020-16070/4800-4820 levels have now become a significant resistance zone for the markets. Therefore, the upward momentum is likely to resume only if indices manage to sustain above this resistance zone. In this case, we may witness a further rally towards 16286-16241/4881-4920 levels. At present, we are observing that indices have closed marginally below the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of 15485/4634. The next immediate support is at 15331/4589, which is the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Further, the recent bottom of 15135/4531 would act as a crucial support for the markets. The negative momentum may reinforce on the violation of this support. In this case, indices may slide towards the next support levels of 14870-14400/4430-4300”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Nifty has been moving in the range of 4530 and 4920 since last one month. We expect this range bound movement would continue for another few days. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4920, a strong bullish rally might carry it to 5200 in the short term. However, a breach of 4530 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may further go down and take support in the band of 4400-4350. Traders are advised to hold long positions with a strict stop loss of 4530. For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 4600 and the resistance is 4720. If Nifty breaks 4600, it may further go down to 4530 and then 4400. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 4720, the level of 4830-4920 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “This was the last week of the trading year and statistics at the end of the year shows up India as among the worst performers globally, particularly among Asian markets. The performance of the Indian markets in 2011 was as such: Sensex was down 25% and Nifty down 25%. For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 4750-4850 in the upper side and 4450-4400 in the lower side”.

SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “Automobile and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sectors start unveiling sales volume data for December 2011 from January, 01 2012. Besides Market will dominate by developments in European Union nations, Volatility in the dollar, foreign Institutional activity and political uncertainty will remain a cause of concern”.

UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows negative sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing negative crossover in weekly chart, which shows resistance are good for selling opportunity. Nifty closed below the 20 day moving average (4770) indicating the short term trend could be turning negative. Short term stochastics are showing overbought territory and negative sentiment till support levels at 4400-4300. The market setup is somewhat negative with trading range between 4400-4800 on weekly basis.  The next area of resistance is around at 4740-4800 and supports are at 4400-4300. If Nifty trades below 4600, it may take supports at 4500-4400. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 4740-4800 and supports at 4500-4400. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16000-16200 and supports at 14900-14600. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 8300-8600 and supports at 7800-7700”.

R K GLOBAL: “we expect the markets to remain tilted and be skirmish as the global economic situation is still on its toes. Moreover, the domestic economy is reeling under serious circumstances of slow economic growth, grave policy making and political indifferences amongst key parties running the Government. This are expected to add more woes to the markets. The next major trigger for the market is Q3FY12 corporate earnings, which will start tricking from the second week of Jan’12. The focus will be on guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. We expect moderated Q3FY12 results due to lower volume growth in a slowing economy, higher raw material costs and higher interest charges. However, being said so, we also expect some relaxation on the inflation front as we have seen India's food inflation rose at its slowest pace in nearly six years, prompting Finance Ministry to express the hope that overall inflation may recede to ~6% by March and raising hopes that the central bank will start easing monetary policy. So, in that case we expect the markets to do well and we remain confident that the dent in our domestic markets will be done with”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 4830 levels on closing basis will continue to be the Major Resistance. If we cross this, 5000 psychological level would become the next valid move. On the downside, we may witness a strong support near 4600 levels but closing below this level for consecutive two or more session may trigger another downfall till 4420-30 marks".
KARVY STOCK:  “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat note. Trade short in Nifty at 4,680 levels with stop loss placed at 4,700 for targets of 4,650 levels”.

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