At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 183.92 points or 1.17% at 15,543.93 with 22 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty fell by 59.55 points or 1.27% at 4,646.25 with 38 components posting drop.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting significant losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a weak session and closed with loss. Level wise, closing below the threshold 4650 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed weak sentiments, segments, like large-cap, small-cap and mid-cap were under bear’s clout. Owing to this, bulls lost the control to the bears with significant margin. Due to severe selling Nifty lost significantly and lost its coveted 9 day’s SMA placed at 4687 besides closing below its vital 14, 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4708, 4950 & 4985. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 27+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 40.13 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some weak movements in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sahaj Agrawal): “A volatile December series saw range of 4,500-5,100 for the Nifty. Selling was seen across index heavy weights led by Banking, Capital Goods and Metal space; Pharmaceuticals, IT and FMCG outperformed. Nifty lost 2% on expiry basis as it closed at 4,650. Short rolls kept the market under pressure. Weakness expected to continue below 4,750-4,800 for 4,400-4,450 on the downside”. (source: myiris)
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4610-4710. Below this range, 4585-68 may act as intraday support level, while above the given range 4730 would be the major resistance level. Bank Nifty has a strong support at 8000 and 7930, while 8200 and 8300 are strong resistance levels”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Bears are having control at the moment. Selling pressure may be continuing below 4,630 levels. If Nifty holds 4,630 levels then recovery may also be seen. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 4,630-4,650. If Nifty shows strength above 4,630-4,650 levels, then rally to 4,700/4,750/4,800 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4,630 levels then selling pressure till 4,580/4,540/4,500 may also be seen”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat note. Trade short in Nifty below 4,650 levels, else from 4,680 levels with stop loss placed at 4,700 for targets of 4,630 and 4,600 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Late sell-off in Nifty made it to close below 4,650 levels. Resistance for Nifty is at 4,685 and 4,725 while the support is there at 4,622 and 4,599 levels. Being the first day of January 2012 expiry, we may see minor value buying in selected counters tomorrow and one should keep in mind that the outlook for the markets still remains weak”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market unfolded weak as expected and has closed in the red on the last day of the F&O expiry finding stiff residence at 4700 regions. Incidentally the low of the day has touched our target of 4640 like a dot. Technically the market is weak and should slide down in the days to come. The support for the Nifty is at 4570 and resistance at 4700-4750”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The short term crucial resistance of Nifty is at 4770. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4770, it may further go up to the level of 4920 and then 5000 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 4530 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test the level of 4420 and then 4350 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4530 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4600 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 4680. If Nifty breaks 4600, it may further go down to 4560 and then 4530. However, if it is able to sustain above 4680, the level of 4720–4770 would become the next target”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “The previous weekly close was seen at 4720 and if Nifty Futures closes below this level than continuation of the downtrend may be seen. Below 4600 the next level to watch is placed at 4500 where major breakdown will be seen with initial target of 4300. The trading volumes are still on lower side and sharp rise with the closing will indicate trend direction. Any bounce back will face a strong resistance at 4720 and closing above this may push Nifty Futures again towards 4800 levels. The direction of the trend is expected to show clarity on 30th Dec - 2nd Jan as per Timing Cycle Analysis. The intermediate trend of Nifty Futures will remain in downward direction till the weekly close is below 5275 mark. The intraday resistance levels for Nifty Futures are placed at 4680 & 4720 and support levels are placed at 4600 & 4540 respectively”.
HDFC SECURITIES: “Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green following strong global cues and could trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,600-4,540 while resistance is at 4,720-4,800. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform while Metal stocks look weak”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 15,595/4,662 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,674–15,804/4,686–4,725 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 15,595/4,662 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,465–15,385/4,623–4,600 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Yesterday, markets opened lower and traded with immense volatility mainly due to the expiry of derivative contracts for the month of December. A sharp down move towards the end of the session dragged indices lower to test mentioned support level of 15472/4632. This level nearly coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the rise from 15135 to 16049/4531 to 4801 levels. Considering the optimism in Global markets, it is likely that our markets too may open on a positive note. On the upside, yesterday’s high of 15725/4702 is likely to act as a resistance in coming trading session. A sustainable move above this mark may push indices higher to test 15887-16020/4756-4800 levels. However, if indices manage to sustain below the above mentioned Fibonacci retracement support level then they are likely to fall further towards 15333–15135/4590–4531 levels”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “On the last F&O expiry of 2011, the market witnessed thin volumes, but significant volatility. The sensex and Nifty tried to enter the positive zone, but failed miserably and ended near the day’s lows. For today’s trade market likely to trade in the range between 4680 & 4710 in the upper side and 4610 & 4570 in the lower side”.
RAJATKBOSE.COM (Rajat Bose): “Technically, the resistance levels are 4667, 4685, 4696 and 4710 before it encounters the major supply zone around 4725. Beyond that 4743 and 4754 are the next resistance levels and then comes another major supply zone between 4780 and 4805. Unless any recovery attempt succeeds in maintaining the Nifty above 4725-mark, any up-move would be an invitation to the bears to press sales at levels close to 4700 again. On the down side, support comes in between 4622 and 4601—if this range gets broken then 4540 through 4517 would be the last major support area, which if broken could mean a sharp fall towards 4350-kind of levels”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The Indian indices are seen opening up on positive global cues. The critical level for the upside is at 4671 and if the market sustains above this level in the morning session, then it may creep towards the target of 4718.The upside rally may gain momentum above this level where in which the next resistance comes around 4742. However below the critical level ,the index may try to take support at 4638.A plop below this level can invite more selling pressure, which may push the benchmark towards the lower support at 4601”.
FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE”
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting significant losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a weak session and closed with loss. Level wise, closing below the threshold 4650 levels may extend support to the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed weak sentiments, segments, like large-cap, small-cap and mid-cap were under bear’s clout. Owing to this, bulls lost the control to the bears with significant margin. Due to severe selling Nifty lost significantly and lost its coveted 9 day’s SMA placed at 4687 besides closing below its vital 14, 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4708, 4950 & 4985. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 27+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 40.13 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some weak movements in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sahaj Agrawal): “A volatile December series saw range of 4,500-5,100 for the Nifty. Selling was seen across index heavy weights led by Banking, Capital Goods and Metal space; Pharmaceuticals, IT and FMCG outperformed. Nifty lost 2% on expiry basis as it closed at 4,650. Short rolls kept the market under pressure. Weakness expected to continue below 4,750-4,800 for 4,400-4,450 on the downside”. (source: myiris)
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4610-4710. Below this range, 4585-68 may act as intraday support level, while above the given range 4730 would be the major resistance level. Bank Nifty has a strong support at 8000 and 7930, while 8200 and 8300 are strong resistance levels”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Bears are having control at the moment. Selling pressure may be continuing below 4,630 levels. If Nifty holds 4,630 levels then recovery may also be seen. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 4,630-4,650. If Nifty shows strength above 4,630-4,650 levels, then rally to 4,700/4,750/4,800 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4,630 levels then selling pressure till 4,580/4,540/4,500 may also be seen”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat note. Trade short in Nifty below 4,650 levels, else from 4,680 levels with stop loss placed at 4,700 for targets of 4,630 and 4,600 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Late sell-off in Nifty made it to close below 4,650 levels. Resistance for Nifty is at 4,685 and 4,725 while the support is there at 4,622 and 4,599 levels. Being the first day of January 2012 expiry, we may see minor value buying in selected counters tomorrow and one should keep in mind that the outlook for the markets still remains weak”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market unfolded weak as expected and has closed in the red on the last day of the F&O expiry finding stiff residence at 4700 regions. Incidentally the low of the day has touched our target of 4640 like a dot. Technically the market is weak and should slide down in the days to come. The support for the Nifty is at 4570 and resistance at 4700-4750”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The short term crucial resistance of Nifty is at 4770. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4770, it may further go up to the level of 4920 and then 5000 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 4530 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test the level of 4420 and then 4350 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4530 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4600 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 4680. If Nifty breaks 4600, it may further go down to 4560 and then 4530. However, if it is able to sustain above 4680, the level of 4720–4770 would become the next target”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “The previous weekly close was seen at 4720 and if Nifty Futures closes below this level than continuation of the downtrend may be seen. Below 4600 the next level to watch is placed at 4500 where major breakdown will be seen with initial target of 4300. The trading volumes are still on lower side and sharp rise with the closing will indicate trend direction. Any bounce back will face a strong resistance at 4720 and closing above this may push Nifty Futures again towards 4800 levels. The direction of the trend is expected to show clarity on 30th Dec - 2nd Jan as per Timing Cycle Analysis. The intermediate trend of Nifty Futures will remain in downward direction till the weekly close is below 5275 mark. The intraday resistance levels for Nifty Futures are placed at 4680 & 4720 and support levels are placed at 4600 & 4540 respectively”.
HDFC SECURITIES: “Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green following strong global cues and could trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,600-4,540 while resistance is at 4,720-4,800. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform while Metal stocks look weak”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 15,595/4,662 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,674–15,804/4,686–4,725 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 15,595/4,662 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,465–15,385/4,623–4,600 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Yesterday, markets opened lower and traded with immense volatility mainly due to the expiry of derivative contracts for the month of December. A sharp down move towards the end of the session dragged indices lower to test mentioned support level of 15472/4632. This level nearly coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the rise from 15135 to 16049/4531 to 4801 levels. Considering the optimism in Global markets, it is likely that our markets too may open on a positive note. On the upside, yesterday’s high of 15725/4702 is likely to act as a resistance in coming trading session. A sustainable move above this mark may push indices higher to test 15887-16020/4756-4800 levels. However, if indices manage to sustain below the above mentioned Fibonacci retracement support level then they are likely to fall further towards 15333–15135/4590–4531 levels”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “On the last F&O expiry of 2011, the market witnessed thin volumes, but significant volatility. The sensex and Nifty tried to enter the positive zone, but failed miserably and ended near the day’s lows. For today’s trade market likely to trade in the range between 4680 & 4710 in the upper side and 4610 & 4570 in the lower side”.
RAJATKBOSE.COM (Rajat Bose): “Technically, the resistance levels are 4667, 4685, 4696 and 4710 before it encounters the major supply zone around 4725. Beyond that 4743 and 4754 are the next resistance levels and then comes another major supply zone between 4780 and 4805. Unless any recovery attempt succeeds in maintaining the Nifty above 4725-mark, any up-move would be an invitation to the bears to press sales at levels close to 4700 again. On the down side, support comes in between 4622 and 4601—if this range gets broken then 4540 through 4517 would be the last major support area, which if broken could mean a sharp fall towards 4350-kind of levels”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The Indian indices are seen opening up on positive global cues. The critical level for the upside is at 4671 and if the market sustains above this level in the morning session, then it may creep towards the target of 4718.The upside rally may gain momentum above this level where in which the next resistance comes around 4742. However below the critical level ,the index may try to take support at 4638.A plop below this level can invite more selling pressure, which may push the benchmark towards the lower support at 4601”.
FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE”
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