Indian benchmark indices both Sensex and Nifty registered a weekly loss of over 3% as against a massive surge of over 7% last week. The markets witnessed a huge fall due to global turmoil and euro zone crisis. Amongst the sectoral indices Capital Goods, Realty and Oil & Gas were worst hit. At the close, the 30-share index, Sensex plunged 633.37 points, or 3.76%, to 16,213.46 in the week ended Dec. 09, 2011. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dropped 183.45 points, or 3.63%, to 4,866.7 in the same period.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Indian markets drifting down this week, the up-move seen last week seems to have been negated. Traders will now need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the supports of 4755. Else, a further sell-off can be seen”.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Indian markets drifting down this week, the up-move seen last week seems to have been negated. Traders will now need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the supports of 4755. Else, a further sell-off can be seen”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “Looking ahead, important market moving events include meetings of ECB and EU, both scheduled today. Most economists expect ECB to cut interest rates to 1% from 1.25%. The EU summit decision is likely to be announced on Friday (Saturday morning in India). So, markets should react to the news on Monday. The street would also be cautious before the IIP October data to be announced on Monday. Hence net-net, given the upcoming events, market mood may remain cautious”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting significant cuts in last session, Nifty witnessed a very volatile session and closed with sizable cuts besides losing coveted 4900 level. Level wise, closing below the vital 4900 levels may depict weakness of the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market too witnessed weak sentiments. Owing to this, bears outnumbered the bulls with significant margin. Due to profit booking Nifty lost its 9 and 14 day’s SMA placed at 4932 & 4868 and continued to close below its vital 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 5017 & 5105. VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a higher level of 29.53, which indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 43.94 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness some range bound movements in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing strength previous week, Nifty showed selling pressure from 5100 levels and made long black candlestick on weekly charts, which shows that Nifty have crucial resistance in near 5100 zone. On upside, Nifty also has some resistance in 4900-4950 levels, if Nifty manages to maintain above 4950 levels then recovery may be seen else selling pressure may be continuing. On downside, Nifty has support in 4750-4650 zone. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4850. If Nifty shows strength above 4850 levels then we may see rally 4950/5050-5100/5175/5250 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4850 levels then selling pressure till 4750/4650/4600/4550 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 4880-4900 | 4970 | 4850 |
For the Week | Buy | 4850-4900 | 4985-5050-5100 | 4850 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Much awaited EU summit has been concluded and the final outcome will shape the market trend for Monday. Meanwhile, next week will be eventful for the domestic bourses as the IIP numbers will be announced on 12 December, Nov monthly inflation figure will be announced on 14 December, third advance tax instalment is due on 15 December, which are likely to provide cues for Q3FY12 earnings and monetary policy is scheduled for December 16th. Market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to witness a gap up or gap down opening on Monday. Trade short in Nifty below 4,880 levels, else from 4,900 levels with stop loss placed at 4,920 levels for targets of 4,850-4,830 levels. Alternatively, trade long in Nifty above 4,920 levels with stoploss placed at 4,900 levels with targets of 4,950-4,980 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Today Nifty closed around 4,860 levels and if it fails to hold on to the support of 4,832 then we may see Nifty moving below 4,800 and more while resistance is there at 4,909 and 4,952 levels. Investors should keep in mind that next week is having the IIP numbers for the month of October and later on December 16th the RBI is having its mid quarter review”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Markets gave up quite a bit of the late Nov - early Dec rally, declining 3.7% for the week, on indications of key reforms taking a back seat owing to political compulsions. High beta and cyclicals --Capital goods, Power, Infrastructure and Metals—took most of the beating. IT, Healthcare & FMCG outperformed. Food inflation has come off significantly while the trade deficit at ~$13bn was better than October even as exports showed sluggishness, on account of slowing imports. FII were net buyers(~ ` 12bn). Bond yields have come off a good ~45bps on account of OMO from RBI and expectation of further liquidity easing from the RBI at its meet on 16th. UK has blocked a crucial EU treaty deal. However 23 out of the 27 European Nations have agreed to tougher central control of euro-zone tax, spending and consensus on automatic sanctions etc. (at least for the 17 Euro nations) is a positive. No major bond buying has been indicated by the ECB. Going forward markets have no domestic triggers, only a rally globally could support some bounce in the market. However we do not envisage secondary buying to take it higher. Sell-off at higher levels is quite probable”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty may take a decisive course after the EU Summit outcome. If the index closes above 4940, then short covering could pull the index to its immediate resistance of 5150. Inability to hold Friday’s low of 4840 can push the Nifty to test its year low of 4635”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The market was volatile however it closed below 4900 levels indicating further weakness. Next support is around 4700 level. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.22. Currently, the highest concentration of open interest in the December series is at the 4700-strike put option; with open interest of more than 80 lakh shares. The 5100-strike call has an open interest of above 70 lakh shares, the highest among call options. It is closely followed by the 5000 strike, with open interest of more than 60 lakh shares. The Implied Volatility (IV) of options increased substantially last week indicating fear in the market. Implied volatility of call options closed at 27.21%, whereas it was 26.64% for puts. If the Index manages to sustain above the 4900 mark, it could gradually inch up towards 5100 levels on the back of short-covering and fresh buying. However, Nifty is expected to remain weak with the possible target of 4700”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is weak and a sell signal has been generated...looks like 4950-5000 is a strong resistance to deal with and the market could possibly slide down to closer to 4700 zones. From trading point of view, I would short all rallies until 5000. From daily point of view, the support for the Nifty is at 4815”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “We are now observing a negative crossover in ‘3 & 8 EMA’ and ‘RSI’ oscillator on the Daily chart. On the contrary, a ‘Spinning Top’ Japanese candlestick pattern on the Daily chart near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 15478 to 17004/4639 to 5100 indicates uncertainty among bulls and bears. Thus, if indices sustain below Friday's low of 16142/4841 then we may witness further selling pressure and markets are likely to drift towards 15850-15478/4754-4639 levels. On the other hand, if indices manage to sustain above 16383/4913 level, then they are likely to bounce back towards 16863/5002 level. The weekly high of 17004/5100 is likely to act as a strong resistance in the coming trading sessions”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The short term crucial support of Nifty is at 4700. If Nifty is able to close below 4700, the short term trend would become negative and it may further go down to 4530. However, a breach of 4920 would likely to take Nifty higher to 5110 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4700 of all long positions. For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 4800 and the resistance is 4920. If Nifty breaks 4800, it may further go down to 4700 and then 4640. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 4920, the level of 5000-5110 would become the next target”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The Indian market indices failed to retain the initial gains and slipped into selling towards the latter half of the week that went by. Even though the market closed in an indecisive mode (forming a doji), the trend remains biased towards the negative. MACD, even though continues with the bulls, is fading in momentum. RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are retracing from the overbought zone, indicating the possibilities for some more downside in the days to come. The range of 4930-4850 will be critical for NSE Nifty for the days to. The first support, in case of a continued selling, will be 4770, followed by 4715. On upside the first resistance is expected at 5025, followed by 5120”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “Negativity prevailed across all sectors during the week and both benchmark indices and all sectoral indices closed with significant losses. Realty, metal, oil & gas and capital goods were the biggest losers and banking and auto too, contributed in the negativity. For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5050-5100 in the upper side and 4650–4600 in the lower side”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “The Market is expected to remain Volatile next week on account of having major events which Includes Index of industrial production Data (IIP) for October 2011 on (12th Dec, Monday), November monthly Inflation numbers on (14th Dec, Wednesday), Q3 Corporate Advance tax Number on (15th Dec, Thursday) and RBI's monetary policy review on (16th Dec, Friday), besides Volatility in the dollar, foreign Institutional activity and news from Indian parliament is remain a cause for concern, as well as Market will also dominated by developments in European. The Shares of Banking, Automobile and Realty will be in focus on account of RBI Monetary Policy Review”.
HEM SECURITIES: “The market is likely to remain volatile as investors react to a slew of economic data and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review. On Monday, markets are expected to have uptrend”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “On the weekly basis, Nifty did make higher top and higher bottom compared to the previous week. However, Nifty performance next week will be result of the outcome of the European leaders meeting and also how currency markets react to it. Nifty has upside resistance at 5,000 and on the downside, 4,750 will remain a key support level”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows negative sentiment on weekly closing basis. Nifty spot week on week has opened at 5036.50, made a high of 5099.25 and made a weekly low of 4841.75 and then finally closed negative at 4866.70. Oscillators like RSI is showing negative crossover in daily chart, which shows resistance are good for selling opportunity. Nifty closed below the 65 day moving average (5025) indicating the short term trend could be turning negative. Short term stochastic is showing negative sentiment till support levels at 4930-4820. The market setup is somewhat sideways with trading range between 4700-5100 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 5050-5175. So Nifty appears to be negative on weekly chart having supports at 4750-5650 levels. If Nifty trades below short term 5030, it may take resistance at 5100-5175. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5050-5175and supports at 4750-4650. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16800-17200 and supports at 15800-15500. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9350-9650 and supports at 8525-8250”.
R K GLOBAL: “In the week ahead, we expect to see the indices moving in a range-bound manner as the skeptism on the global front still prevails. The domestic economy is embroiled in a political storm as the Opposition fights the UPA government against FDI in retail every step of the way. The Bill is now put on hold till a consensus can be achieved. This move has raised concerns of India’s image as an investment destination. And investors will certainly not take this on a positive stance. Moreover, the reduction in GDP growth forecast for FY12 comes after the economy grew an annual 6.9% in Q2FY’12, its slowest pace in more than two years is expected to curb the market performances. Among the sectors, Metal and mining shares could be watched as prices of industrial metals fell in this week. However, we expect to see some strength among the technology, IT and FMCG sector owing to some solution from the EU zone and fall in inflation rate”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5030 levels on closing basis will continue to be the Major Resistance. If we cross this, 5150 levels would become the next logical move. On the downside, we may witness a strong support near 4800 levels but closing below this level for consecutive two or more session may trigger another downfall till 4650 mark”.
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