The 30-share benchmark index, Sensex ascended 850.15 points or 5.24% during the week to 17,082.69. Meanwhile, the broad based Nifty climbed 244.25 points or 5% over the week to 5,132.30.
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 94.04 crore whereas DII were net sellers of ` 237.85 crore on Friday, the 14th October 2011(prov. fig.)
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets surging higher this week, traders will need to watch if the Nifty can break out of its current trading range of 4720-5198 in which it has been trading for the last six weeks. A move above the highs of 5198 in the coming week would result in a confirmation of a fresh intermediate uptrend. A failure to move above these highs could result in the Nifty continuing to trade in a range bound fashion between the 4720-5198 levels”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “We expect markets to consolidate in the coming week. There are important meetings lined up including the G20 meet today in Paris. The EU nations would meet again on 23rd October to discuss the bailout of Greece and other heavily indebted Eurozone nations. The US consumer data would be announced today. Closer home, Reliance Industries Q2 numbers would be announced on Saturday, which would be closely watched. Important results for the next week are that of L&T, Hero Motocorp, HDFC and TCS. On a net basis, the outlook for the markets remains contingent on the outcome of EU nations meeting and the earnings announcements. We continue to view favourably sectors like IT, Media and Banks. We remain selective on the industrial and infrastructure space. For the investors, we advise to utilize declines to buy into the markets. We remain concerned on elevated crude prices, slackening industrial production growth, high interest rates and delays in policy decisions”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after making a small bearish candle in last trading session, today Nifty closed on a big bull candle and the indices closed just above the important resistance levels. Nifty successfully held 5120 levels and Sensex closed above the physiological level of 17000. The market breath also turned to be positive. In today’s session, Nifty not closed above the vital supports of 9, 14 & 50 day’s SMA placed at 4947, 4945 & 5018. But closed below 100 day’s and 200 days SMA placed at 5270 and 5450. These levels may be the new ranges in forthcoming sessions. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at 25.98 which is moderately lesser than the previous days value of 28.24, indicating a average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 57.67 levels and MACD closed above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may continue to witness some range bound movements in forthcoming session”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “The Nifty has shown significant strength to appreciate for 8 trading sessions in a row that too without a correction. Though there isn’t any visible technical weakness, the quantum of the rise is worrying while a strong resistance area comes in at the 5182–5224 level making further upside slightly difficult; caution is the watchword at higher levels”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After making hammer candlestick pattern Nifty made long white candlestick pattern, which shows that bulls are having control at the moment. Nifty has crucial resistance zone in 5150-5230 range and decisive strength may be seen if Nifty manages to maintain above this zone. Otherwise, profit booking may be seen. September quarter results may continue to play important role in sentiment preparation. Market will take from these results and overseas indices. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5130. If Nifty shows strength above 5130 levels then we may see rally 5175/5230/5300/5350 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5130 levels then selling pressure till 5070/5000/4950/4870 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Sell | 5170-5190 | 5120 | 5210 |
| For the Week | Sell | 5190-5230 | 5100-5050-5000 | 5260 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “With the announcement of IIP numbers and WPI monthly Inflation numbers for Sept over, the markets will now react to forthcoming result updates from key heavyweight companies like Reliance, TCS,HDFC, Hero motocorp and HDFC bank in coming week. This along with global news flows will have a significant impact on market trend. Good support exists at 4800 level, on upside level of 5200 is acting as a strong resistance”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat note the next trading day. Trade long if Nifty holds 5,100 levels with a stop loss at 5,070 levels for targets of 5,150 levels. Alternatively trade short, below 5,070 levels with a stop loss at 5,100 levels for targets for 5,030-5,020 levels”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “As Nifty has surpassed the initial resistance of 5100 it is likely to test the double top resistance of 5170 in coming few trading sessions. We recommend to book profits in the zone of 5150-5170 as multiple resistances are coinciding in this zone and corrective trend may be seen from the same. On the Intraday chart, the current higher bottom level is seen at 4970 and this level can be treated as a trend reversal considering the current bounce back”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Markets have rallied ~5% for the week taking cues from the international equity markets post decision of the ECB to buy back European bonds. This has led to some risk coming back to markets. IT stocks after better-than-expected Infosys results and recently-beaten down bank stocks have rallied and defensives have underperformed in a classical fashion. RBI is meeting on 25th to review the half yearly monetary policy. Expectation is that this could be the last of the hikes and RBI should signal stability in rates from hereon. The macro data continues to disappoint on all fronts - manufacturing, services, inflation, excise collection, currency and current account deficit. The announcement of the extended government borrowing programme has led to the 10-year benchmark yields hitting ~8.8%. Therefore we believe that the ensuing rally is a corrective one in an oversold market and the probability that it would be seconded by buying from the current levels is very low. Institutional investors would track disinvestment programme, fiscal slippages and meaningful policies to tackle CAD & FD. Going forward, markets would continue to watch the developments in the Eurozone. Large part of expected weakness in quarterly results has mostly been factored in with the early weak macro data. Knee-jerk reactions post poor quarterly results performance could create opportunities in select stocks.”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Nifty is likely to trade positive till it holds 5050. In such a scenario, on upsides 5150/5200 would be tested. A close above 5200 would elongate the uptrend. However, a close below 5050 may drag the index towards 4980/4930 levels. Bank Nifty has immediate resistance 9750 above which it may test 9850/9930 levels. The index has immediate support at 9550 below which it may revisit 9400 levels”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Technically, the Index climbed above the 20-day EMA indicating short-term bullishness. The overall market cost-of-carry ended positive. The put-call ratio closed at 1.65 indicating more put writing. The highest concentration of open interest for the October series has shifted to the 4800-strike put from the 4700-strike put, with open interest of 88 lakh and 73 lakh shares, respectively. Among call options, the highest open interest of above 65 lakh shares is at the 5200 strike, indicating resistance. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 24.58% for the week, whereas puts closed at 26.91%. PCR open interest had surged in the beginning of the week and declined towards the weekend. PCR OI is indicating short term instability. Nifty VIX had picked up in the beginning of the week. However, it dropped towards the weekend. In our view given the heightened uncertainty in the markets, the Index is expected to remain range-bound. Moreover, any breach of the lower range is expected to reinforce bearish sentiment in the markets”.
PINC RESEARCH: “Nifty has witnessed a passing of the baton from the bears to the bulls. What appeared like a pullback rally from around 4730 turned out be the advent of something bigger and stronger. The Nifty first attempted a higher top-bottom in the short term charts by breaching the zone of 4950 and then continuing to make a higher top on the daily charts by decisively closing above the level of 5030. All this points out to the possibility of further advances in the coming week towards the resistance of 5200-5250 provided the level of 5000 doesn't get breached on the downside”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is up and has closed on an impulse bar on the weekly time frame with the logical technical target of 5194 but if the impulse move continues then 5364 too is not ruled out. From a trading point of view I would watch the 5000 and trade long. On daily chart, the next logical target beyond 5174 is 5211. The support for the Nifty is at 5100 and resistance at 5174-5211”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “On Friday's session, markets surged significantly higher mainly due to strong positive momentum in IT and Oil & Gas counters. Looking at the Weekly chart, it is observed that indices are nearing the "Horizontal Trend Line" resistance at 17256/5198 levels. This level coincides with "20 EMA" on the Weekly chart and adds weight in favour of the bears. Consequently, 17260/5198 levels may act as a major hurdle for the bulls. However, on the other hand, we are observing a positive crossover in the weekly "RSI - Smoothened" oscillator, which indicates if indices manage to cross and sustain above 17260/5198 levels, then the current positive momentum may increase even further. In such a case, indices may rally towards the gap area of 17358-17665/5230-5323 created on August 5, 2011. On the downside, 16316-16510/5034-4964 levels are likely to act as a support in the coming trading session. Markets are nearing strong resistance levels; therefore, we advise traders to stay light on positions and trade with strict stop losses”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “After making a low of 4728.30 on 4th October, Nifty has given a pull back rally of almost 8% in last seven successive trading sessions. Now it is facing a stiff resistance in the band of 5180-5230. If it is able to maintain above 5230, an upward rally might carry it to 5320 and then 5400 in the short term. However, the leading indicators (like Stochastic & RSI) are giving over bought signal of Nifty. So a short term correction to 4940 can not be ruled out. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5070 and the resistance is 5180. If Nifty breaks 5070, it may further go down to 5020 and then 4940. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5180, the level of 5230-5320 would become the next target”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “The markets made significant gains during the week and the Sensex and the Nifty crossed their psychologically important levels of 17,000 and 5000, respectively. Better than expected results from Infosys had a positive impact on the indices with IT outperforming all other sectors. This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5200-5300 in the upper side and 5000–4900 in the lower side”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On weekly charts, we can observe that the momentum indicators RSI and Stochastic are northbound and Nifty has taken several supports near the 4720 levels. For the coming week, 5050 is the immediate support for the week. If the index slips below these levels then the selling pressure will cause Nifty to get support near 4960/4900 levels. On higher side it will face resistance on the horizontal trendline drawn at 5170 levels. Strength can be seen if it decisively maintains above these levels. Further gains are likely to face resistance towards 5230/5300 levels”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “Indian markets after seeing a consistent and steep fall last week, we may see some breather in next few trading session as Investors will closely monitor the performance of the Q2FY12 corporate earnings. We have already crossed 5,100 levels, so 5,000 is a key psychological level as of now. If the market is able to cross 5,200 levels, then it will be headed to 5,350 levels in a near term”.
INDUSIND BANK: “Nifty has struggled to break into the strong resistance zone at 5,150-5,200 while staying firm above the immediate support zone at 5,050-5,000. While there has been improvement in global cues pulling in some FII flows, domestic cues continue to stay bearish tracking weak growth momentum and inflationary pressures. The high interest rate continues to keep fixed income assets an attractive investment destination. The domestic equity market continues to remain traders’ market and it is not prudent at this stage for strategic and retail investors to stay invested in stocks. It is better to stay aside for the next couple of months to get clarity on the next direction. Till then, let us stay tuned to consolidation at 4,700-5,200 and possible gains over 5,200 considered good to unwind investments for shift into interest bearing fixed income assets. For now, let us watch consolidation at 5,000-5,200 with near term bias for extended weakness into 4,850-4,700”. (source: moneycontrol)
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