"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR FRIDAY (14.10.2011)"

FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 670.08 crore whereas DII were net sellers of ` 257.36 crore on Thursday, the 13^th October 2011(prov. fig.) 
The BSE Sensex lost 74.47 points or 0.44% to settle at 16,883.92, its lowest closing level since 11 October 2011. The index jumped 125.68 points at the day's high of 17,084.07 in early trade, its highest level since 21 September 2011. The index declined 104.36 points at the day's low of 16,854.03 in late trade. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 21.55 points or 0.42% to settle at 5,077.85, its lowest closing level since 11 October 2011. Nifty hit a high of 5,136.95 in intraday trade, its highest level since 21 September 2011. Nifty hit a low of 5,067.65 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.03% and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.06%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 

The market breadth turned negative from positive in late trade. On BSE, 1,423 shares fell and 1,377 rose and a total of 115 shares were unchanged. From the 30-share Sensex pack, 22 fell and the rest rose. 

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES: 

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after making a bullish candle in last trading session, today Nifty closed on a flat to negative and witness some profit booking and getting consolidated at this level for further directions. Nifty successfully held 5000 levels however not able to maintain its intraday break of 5100 levels and Sensex also gave up its 17000 levels. The market breath was marginally negative. In today’s session, Nifty not closed above the vital supports of 9, 14 & 50 day’s SMA placed at 4926.16, 4926.51 & 5026.62. But closed below 100 day’s and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5273 and 5455. These levels may be the new ranges in forthcoming sessions. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, though corrected yet closed at a modestly high level of 28.24, indicating a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 55.09 levels and MACD closed above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may continue to witness some range bound movements in forthcoming session”. 

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed selling pressure from resistance near 5150 levels and closed in red. Bears are trying to enter from 5150-5250 resistance zone. Nifty may trade in 4950-5200 range for nest few days and volatility in this zone may be seen. Traders should be cautious. For daily purpose, Trend deciding level is 5075. If Nifty shows strength above 5075 levels, then rally to 5150/5200/5250 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5075 levels then profit booking till 5040/5000/4950 may also be seen”. 

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “WPI monthly Inflation numbers for Sept will be announced tomorrow, which will lead to heavy volatility on the bourses. On earnings front Index heavyweight Reliance Industries will be announcing the Q2FY12 results on 15 Oct; this along with global news flows will have a significant impact on market trend. Good support exists at 4800 level, on upside level of 5200 is acting as a strong resistance”. 

KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long from 5,070-5,080 for targets of 5,120-5,150 with a stop loss below 5,050. Alternatively trade short, below 5,050 for targets 5,000”. 

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Tomorrow we are going to see the inflation for the month of September and the same is expected to climb a bit due to spiraling food price and fuel cost. If the inflation remains on the higher side, we may see RBI recalculating the whole strategy whether to increase the interest rates or not. The RBI Governor had hinted that interest rates will remain high till inflation shows signs of easing. Nifty is having support at 5049 and 5024 while the resistance is there at 5120 and 5163 levels”. 

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the 5174 is still achievable but the market is in a typical sideways mode. The support for the Nifty is at 5030 and resistance at 5174”. 
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Markets are now at the upper end of the broad range of 5200 to 4700. As mentioned in some of our earlier reports, the Indices have a strong “Horizontal Trend Line” resistance at 17300/5177 level. Moreover, negative crossover of “RSI – Smoothened” oscillator in hourly chart indicates that further downside is likely to continue if indices sustain below yesterday’s low of 16854/5067. Subsequently, indices may witness selling pressure and are likely to test 16774–16510/5045–4964 levels. On the upside, yesterday’s high of 17084/5137 may act as immediate resistance in coming trading session. A move beyond this level can push indices towards the mentioned resistance levels at 17210–17303/5169–5177 levels”. 

ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 16,941/5,094 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,027–17,171/ 5,121–5,163 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 16,941/5,094 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,797–16,711/5,051–5,025 levels”. 

INDIRA SECURITIES: “With no global trigger to support the indices, the markets lost all the morning gains to close with about half-a-percent declines. Auto, metal and capital goods were the biggest losers of Thursday’s session while banking and IT made moderate gains. For today’s trade, market likely to trade in the range between 5090 & 5115 in the upper side and 5040 & 5010 in the lower side”. 

NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES: “The current structure still looks strong if nifty holds 5000 level in the near term. For further fresh rally to emerge, markets has to maintain above 5140/17085 levels. Only stability above 5140, we could see 5190-5225 and on the lower side 5030 - 4970 will act as a support level. Unless we break below 4970 we will see the positive trend continuing”.

SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On Daily charts, we can observe that momentum oscillator RSI is flat and Nifty would face stiff resistance at 5170. For the coming session, we can see 5050/5015/4980 as the supports. On higher levels, 5100 is the immediate resistance for it and any gains above these levels are likely to face stiff resistance at 5140/5170. Traders are advised to trade with strict Stop-loss”. 

HEM SECURITIES: “Key benchmark indices edged lower amid intraday volatility as weak European shares triggered profit taking on the domestic bourses after recent strong gains in share prices. For tomorrow, markets are expected to be sideways”. 

EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES: “Going for 5,170, which is the key pivotal point. The picture will turn more bullish above this 5,170-mark and that will open the door for a move all the way to the upper boundary of the channel at 5,400. Momentum setup still in favour of the bulls”. (courtesy: myiris) 

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