The benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex added 440.13 points or 2.79% at 16,232.54 with 28 components registering rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 136.75 points or 2.88% at 4,888.05 with 45 components registering rise.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 491.56 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 19.41 crore on Friday, the 7th October 2011(prov. fig.)
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets bouncing back strongly on Friday after the recent weakness, the Nifty has held above the crucial levels of 4720. Traders will need to watch if the Nifty can continue to hold above these recent lows of 4720. Further upsides are likely if the Nifty can cross the 4922-4950 resistances early next week”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (DIPEN SHAH): “Markets in India opened sharply higher. Positive announcements from ECB and Bank of England had led to rallies in global markets over the past two days and Indian markets largely played catch-up by opening about 3% higher. Markets will take cues from more economic data from US/Europe. Moody’s has already downgraded ratings of 12 UK banks, which is a reflection of the situation of financial institutions there. Domestically, IIP data for August will also be closely watched. The quarterly results season will also be very important, especially in the backdrop of the weak economic situation. We recommend a bottoms-up approach”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after making four weak candles continuously, today Nifty withstood against selling pressures further and closed on green note. Nifty formed a big bullish candle, which needs to be confirmed by next session’s movement to have any indications about possible reversal. After a positive opening, Nifty successfully held onto its gain and regained its sentimental level of 4880. Inline to a good show, Bulls managed to prove their supremacy over bears to regain the full control of the market and because of this, Indices closed with positive market breadth. In today’s session, Nifty not only regained its vital support of 4880 but also closed above the vital supports of 9 day’s SMA placed at 4886. Despite a good bounce, Nifty closed below 14, 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4934, 5066 and 5290. These levels may be the new ranges in forthcoming sessions. Buying was evident in Large Caps, small cap & mid cap and most of the Sectoral indices too closed on firm note. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, though corrected yet closed at a very high level of 33.02, indicating a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 45.59 levels and MACD closed below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may continue to witness consolidation in forthcoming session”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty made hammer candlestick pattern on weekly charts, which shows that Bulls have good strength in 4700-4800 zone. Nifty may continue to volatile in 4700-5150 zones for next few weeks. September quarter results are approaching in this week. Market will take from these results and overseas indices. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4900. If Nifty shows strength above 4900 levels then we may see rally 4950/5035/5100/5150 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4900 levels then selling pressure till 4850/4750/4650/4550 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Sell | 4920-4940 | 4885-4860 | 4960 |
| For the Week | Sell | 4960-5000 | 4870-4820-4780 | 5040 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “After a truncated week, markets are expected to be volatile on Monday. Earning season will kick off next week, with Infosys being the first one to report its quarter numbers, will have a significant impact on market trend along with global news flows. Good support exists at 4,700 level, below which Nifty is likely to test the levels of 4,675 and then 4,600-4,580 levels. On upside level of 5,200 is acting as a strong resistance”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note on next trading day. Trade short in Nifty below 4,900 levels else from 4,920 levels with a stop loss placed at 4,950 levels for targets of 4,830 and 4,800 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty today closed at highs supported by peers in the Asian front. It has managed to close above the resistance level of 4,860 and may trade in a tight range of 4,700-5,060 in the short-term, but may take cues from the quarterly numbers which is expected to come out from October 12. The short term resistance for the Nifty will be at 4,928 and support at 4,785. Next week, being the week of quarterly numbers, will see volatility”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Next week, markets will keenly watch the August IIP and monthly domestic inflation data, quarterly results of Infosys and at the same time have its eye on global cues. Over the medium term, the European issues remain far from resolved. The current measures by the ECB might be seen as that it would potentially back European banks. However, it still does not erase doubt over whether Spain and Italy and their banks would get access to private market funding at reasonable rates that wouldn’t exacerbate their debt and deficits. European banks hold a large chunk of Spanish and Italian debt and could face large marked-to-market losses. Moreover, the US banks seem to have large exposure through underwriting of European sovereign bonds as well as to European banks. Thus, extensive re-capitalisation of banks could be needed. Commodities might continue to see more pain, with economic indicators of China slowing down”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has immediate support at 4830. The bullish bias may continue till it holds this level while on upsides 4950/5070 may be tested. Below 4800, the Nifty may lose steam and may end up testing the recent lows. The Banking Index has immediate support at 8930 and may test 9400 on the higher side if this level is held. Otherwise, the index may be dragged down on the back of fresh short build-up”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The market is expected to remain in the range of 4800-5100 levels in the short term. If the Index sustains below the 4800 mark on a closing basis, it could further test 4700 levels due to sharp rise in selling pressure. Conversely, the sustenance of 4900 levels is extremely important for the Nifty to showcase any recovery towards 5000 and 5100 levels. Technically, the Index has breached all its moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.47. The highest concentration of open interest for the October series is currently at the 4700-strike put followed by the 4800-strike put, with open interest of 73 lakh and 69 lakh shares, respectively. Among call options, the highest open interest of above 60 lakh shares is at the 5200 strike, indicative of a critical resistance, followed by the 5000-strike call, with open interest of more than 40 lakh shares. The options data imply that markets may remain volatile in the near term. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 31.41% for the week, whereas it closed at 33.85% for puts. The Nifty is expected to remain in a range of 4800-5100 levels. The 4900 level should sustain in the near term and is extremely crucial for any recovery towards 5100 levels. However, in our view given the heightened uncertainty in the markets, the Index is expected to remain range-bound and highly volatile”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market has seen some kind of an interim bottom near the 4750 mark and so there is a good possibility that the market should see some form respite until Diwali in a typical sideways action and the upside limited to 5117 in the days to come. From a trading point of view I would watch the 4750 and trade long. Now an up move to 5004 in the next few days is not ruled out. The support for the Nifty is at 4800-4720 and resistance at 5004”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Last week, Indices moved in a trading range and made a couple of attempts to break crucial support level of 15765/4720. However, indices failed to break this level on closing basis and registered a weekly close significantly higher from their lows. Thus, we are now observing a Japanese candlestick pattern which resembles a "Dragonfly Doji" at crucial support level. The said pattern will be confirmed ONLY above last week's high of 16348/4923. In addition, the "RSI" momentum oscillator has given a positive crossover in daily chart. However, a combination of the "20 EMA" and "Downward sloping trend line" indicates immediate resistance at 16430/4940 level. Therefore, looking at the above technical evidences, if indices manage to sustain above 16430/4940 level then they are likely to rally towards the downside gap area of 16800-17000/5050-5010 created on 22nd September 2011. On the downside, 16045-15745/4828-4720 levels would act as support levels in coming trading session. We reiterate that the selling pressure may intensify only if indices manage to break and close below 15745/4720 level. In such scenario, they are likely to drift towards 15650-15330/4675-4540 levels”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been moving in the range of 4700 and 5110 for last fifteen days. So the level of 4700 and 5110 become short term crucial support and resistance respectively. If Nifty breaches 4700, it may further go down and take support near 4525. However, a breach of 5110 would open the gate for 5230 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4700 of all long positions. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 4825 and the resistance is 4950. If Nifty breaks 4825, it may further go down to 4760 and then 4700. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 4950, the level of 5020-5110 would become the next target”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “Recovering from the heavy sell-off which happened in the market, the Indian market indices – NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex – ended the week with a narrow loss. Considering the failure of the indices in utilizing the gap up opening, the uncertainty as per the direction still persists. Even though a number of technical indicators are trading in the oversold territory, a sustainable recovery from the current levels will be a hard expectation. RSI is recovering from the oversold region and so is Stochastic Oscillators. But the bearish crossing of the MACD along with fading momentum is a cause of concern for bulls. The range of 4945-4825 is seen critical for the NSE Nifty for the week ahead – both will act as the trend deciding Support and Resistance levels for the days ahead. The first Resistance above the upper band is expected at 5005. The trend can remain positive if the index manages to sustain above the above mentioned lower band, on a closing basis. The downside support for the week ahead is 4720, which is also a major short-term critical level”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “The markets lost moderately during the week and broader markets also went along to close with declines. The decline would have been steeper but some positive global cues on the last day of trade made the markets recover. This week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5100 in the upper side and 4700 in the lower side”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “Market may witness huge volatility because of having important events will be due on next week: IIP data (12th October, Wednesday), Monthly Inflation data (14th October, Friday) and New Telecom policy (10th October, Monday) which will affect the Movement of Telecom Stocks, besides Major IT firm Infosys will announce their Q2 earnings on (12th October, Wednesday). On Flip side market will be dominated by news coming out of Europe, especially any new information about Greek and news from US Economy. On weekly charts, we can observe that the momentum indicators RSI is flat while Stochastic is southbound. For the coming week, 4800 is the immediate support for the week. If the index slips below these levels then the selling pressure will cause Nifty to get support near 4730/4660 levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 4960 levels on any bounce back. Strength can be seen if it decisively maintains above these levels. Further gains are likely to face resistance towards 5030/5105 levels”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Nifty although saw a gap opening, it saw some profit booking after it touched a high of 4,939. We would advice traders to be extremely cautious in days ahead. The temporary bounce back in an overall downtrend should be used to book profits because any correction from higher levels could be swift. So while the markets are range bound we would suggest small investors to have a test-match style strategy where in 1s and 2s help to lock-in a good score. So remain nimble footed and book profits regularly. The markets still are in an overall range of 4,720-5,180. Intermediate resistance is at 5,050 and supports come at 4,720”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4874.40 and made a low of 4728.30 and made a high of 4922.60 then finally closed sideways sentiment at 4888. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed below the 20 day moving average (4960) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4725-5034. The next area of resistance is around at 4970-5034. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 4800-4730 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4725 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 4970-5034 and supports at 4800-4730. Weekly sensex has resistance at 16500-16750 and supports at 16000-15745. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9300-9450 and supports at 8800-8650”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “Indian markets after seeing a consistent and steep fall last week, we may see some breather in next few trading session as Investors will closely monitor the performance of the Q2FY12 corporate earnings. Indian markets are expected to remain choppy while selling may intensify on the back of negative cues from the global markets. We believe 4,720 should remain a crucial support from where we may see good rebound in the market. On the flip side, any positive news from global as well as domestic part may reap indices towards 5,100 levels where possibility of consolidation can’t be rule out”.
GEPL CAPITAL (SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK): “Nifty unable to cross the ‘Island Reversal’ price gap zone between 4879-4906 suggesting bear grip on the market. Nifty needs to surpass and close above 4920 to avoid sharp downward momentum in the market. Breakdown of 4700 will lead to testing of 4630 levels (crucial support) considering the current intermediate trend. If the current weekly close is below 4943, which is previous weekly close, the fear of sharp fall will loom over the next week. For positional, Island Reversal Pattern seen on daily chart is giving negative signal on daily chart and the breach of 4770 is expected to trigger sharp downfall in Nifty up to 4700. The breach of 4700 would be very negative indication and Nifty could touch 4300 mark on lower side. The intermediate trend of Nifty will remain in the downward direction till it trades below 5400 mark”.
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