"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (22.09.2011)"


The benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 34.13 points or 0.20% at 17,065.15 with 17 components registering drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty fell by 6.95 points or 0.14% at 5,133.25 with 29 components posting drop. 
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 243.45 crore whereas DII were net sellers of ` 15.48 crore on Wednesday, the 21st September 2011(prov. fig.)
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES:Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open on a negative note following weak Global cues. It could later take cues from the European markets. Among the sectors, Banking and Auto stocks could underperform”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, Nifty exhibited a sideways and volatile show, wherein intraday movement remained restricted to 50 points. Today’s candlestick pattern of Hanging man after a bullish candle of last session signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. In today’s session, neither bulls nor bears were able to gain control and a turning point could be developing. After a bullish candle of last session, today’s hanging man can be interpreted as weakening of buying sentiments. In today’s session, Nifty maintained its vital supports sanctity and closed above the vital supports of 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 5047 and 5059, but below the 50 &100 day’s SMA levels placed at 5221 & 5362 levels, i.e. above the Nifty closing; these may be the resistances in forthcoming sessions. Modest buying in small cap & mid cap boosted Bulls to maintain their control over Bears, because of which, Indices closed with positive market breadth. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a higher level of 27.67, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 53.29 levels and MACD closed above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may continue to witness consolidation”.
BONANZA ONLINE:Nifty showed volatile session in 5168-5109 range. Nifty has important support at 5100 levels. If Nifty breaks below 5100 levels then selling pressure may be seen. On the other hand, Nifty may face resistance near 5200 level. For daily purpose, Trend deciding level is 5130. If Nifty shows strength above 5130 levels, then rally to 5175-5225/5300 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5130 levels then selling pressure till 5100/5060/5025/4980 may also be seen”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5,120 levels, else from the support of 5,100 levels with stoploss placed at 5,080 levels for the targets of 5,150 and 5,165 levels. Alternatively, trade short if Nifty slips below 5,080 levels with stoploss of 5,100 targeting support levels”.
PINC RESEARCH: The nature of the movement of Nifty for the last few days can be best described as "precarious". It has been shuttling in a trading range with no semblance of a clear direction. The abysmal volumes and erratic market participation hasn't been helping the trend either. However, we reiterate any continuation of further advance could face hurdle around the 5200 - 5250 mark. In spite of retaining our neutral view in the short term, our medium term view remains tilted towards weakness. The technical indicators still favour the odds of downside probabilities. In the event that a breakdown occurs, Nifty can slip towards its previous low of around 4700-4800 or possibly even lower”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): The market has closed flat for the day. Technically I will hold 5000 as a strong support zone and trade long as long as 5000 holds. The support for the Nifty is at 5000 and resistance at 5265.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): Yesterday, markets opened marginally higher and moved towards the important swing high of 17212/5169 but ultimately fail to cross this level. Subsequently, indices moved in a very narrow range and hence, closed marginally below Tuesday’s closing. On the higher side, we continue to mention the resistance level of 17212/5169. Only a sustainable move beyond this level may push indices towards 17400–17600/5240–5300 levels. Looking at the global cues indices are expected to open with a negative bias. On the downside, 16880–16700/5070–5019 levels may act as support in coming trading sessions. A violation of 16700/5019 level would lead to the breakdown of upward sloping trend line and indices may see further downside”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani):Anxiety about Greece’s ability to clinch a final deal on a second financial bailout from international lenders coupled with the outcome of the FOMC meet will decide the outlook for the remainder of the week. For India, the key event will be next week’s F&O expiry apart from the latest quarterly results next month”.   
MICROSEC SECURITIES:Yesterday Nifty has given a range bound and choppy movement. Now the short term crucial resistance of Nifty lies at 5230. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5230, an upward rally might carry it to 5320 and then 5400 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 5015 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may further go down to 4910. Traders are advised to hold long positions with stop loss of 5015. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5110 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5170. If Nifty breaks 5110, it may further go down to 5065 and then 5015. However, if it is able to sustain above 5170, the level of 5205–5230 would become the next target”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 17,086/5,137 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,171–17,276/5,164–5,196 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 17,086/5,137 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,980–16,895/5,106–5,079 levels”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:The Indian markets closed flat on Wednesday with both benchmark indices losing about 0.14%. Automotive was the biggest loser of the day while Cement & banking was the gainers. The CNX Midcap index was up by 1% and the BSE Smallcap index lost 0.70%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 1610 against declines of 1228 on the BSE. For today’s trade market likely to trade in the range between 5170 & 5240 in upper side and 5110 & 5050 in lower side”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:The undertone of the market is very strong but nifty future is facing resistance around its 50-day EMA of 5178 and unless we see a steady closing above this level we believe that fresh buying should be avoided. The trend which emerged is positive and buying on decline is sensible keeping a stop-loss of 5040”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES:IMF’s trimming of growth forecast for India sounds a warning signal and will make global investors trim their expectations, accordingly. The resistance levels for Nifty (spot) continue to be at 5,180 and 5,320 where it fills an open gap. And on the downside, 4,990-4,910 remains supports”.
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