The 30-share benchmark index, Sensex gained 66.86 points or 0.4% during the week to 16,933.83. Meanwhile, the broad based Nifty moved up 24.8 points or 0.49% over the week to 5,084.25.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 395.16 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 39.33 crore on Friday, the 16th September 2011(prov. fig.)
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 917.26 crore in the last week whereas DIIs are the net buyers of ` 410.17 crore.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets bouncing back this week, traders will need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the supports of 5030 next week. This will keep the bulls in control. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 5143”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty exhibited a very interesting and busy show and continued its good closing saga of past two sessions. Amidst higher volatility, though Nifty pared most of its earned gains but despite a brief instance in red finally closed in green zone. This may motivate buying sentiments in coming sessions. Nifty, tough regained the vital support of 5100, but lost it in intraday session. Volumes were good and apparently buying momentum was visible and Nifty may be in temporary upmove after it has crossed vital resistances of 5050. Because of a good show, Nifty closed the session above the vital resistance of 9 & 14 days’ SMA placed at 5051 & 5013 but closed below the vital support levels of 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 5382 & 5383 levels; this may be the new resistances in forthcoming sessions. Modest buying in small cap & mid cap supported Bulls to snatch control from bears, because of which, Indices closed with positive market breadth. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a higher level of 28.45, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 53.82 levels and MACD closed below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may continue to witness some positive spike”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty is trading in 5170-4900 range for two weeks. Volatility may be continuing in this range. Buying momentum may be seen, if Nifty maintains above 5170 levels. Traders may take long positions in defensive stocks with stoploss in 4900-5000 range. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5100. If Nifty shows strength above 5100 levels then we may see rally 5170/5225/5300 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5100 levels then selling pressure till 5040/4980/4900/4850 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Sell | 5140-5160 | 5100-5080 | 5180 |
| For the Week | Sell | 5150-5180 | 5080-5040-5000 | 5210 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Market had already discounted 25 bps hike in interest rate and performed accordingly. Now, the market will be more influenced by global developments either favourable or negative will directly influence the short term market trend. Nifty is likely to consolidate within 4900-5200 range”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty from 5,100 levels with a stop loss at 5,080 levels for targets 5,130 and 5,150 levels. Alternatively, trade short in Nifty below 5,080 levels with a stoploss at 5,100 levels for targets of 5,050-5,030 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES: “As Nifty has breached the key resistance level of 5016, the outlook remains slightly positive and Nifty can easily test 5200 in the short term. The support for the Nifty will be at 5013 and 4977”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Our markets ended up ~0.5% for the week. Recovery in the developed markets on the hope of some solution to the European sovereign debt crisis, perhaps through a common European sovereign bond, helped sentiments and overcome the disappointment from the July IIP data (3.3% growth as against market expectations of ~6.2%). Despite some expectation of a pause in RBI’s monetary policy rates on account of the poor IIP data, markets received the RBI’s rate hike of 25bps well. Imported inflation continued to hurt through sharp rupee depreciation and therefore the RBI intervention in the forex market. Institutional fund flows were negative for the week; FII’s by Rs12.1bn and DII’s by Rs4.9bn. The capital goods index was down 3.1% for the week as the IIP data revealed a sharp decline of 15.2% YoY in the capital goods output. With the improvement in market sentiments, FMCG underperformance continued for the week. All eyes and ears would be focused on the weekend meeting of the Eurozone countries’ Ministers in Poland, hoping that they would come out with a solution that could prevent a crisis of confidence in the interim. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5030 & 4967 levels and would face resistance at 5144 & 5195 levels”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty is likely to trade with a positive bias if it is able to hold 5050. On the higher side, noteworthy accumulation at 5200 Call seems to pose immediate resistance while 4900 should continue to act as strong support. We expect 5050 to be vital for any immediate directional movement of about 3-4% in either direction. The banking index may extend gains if it able to surpass 9850 due to prevailing short positions in the system. On downsides, 9500 seems to be an important support for the Bank Nifty”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.59. The highest concentration of open interest continued to be at the 4700-strike put option, with open interest close to 90 lakh shares for the September series. This is closely followed by the 4800 and 4600 put-option strikes, which have above 85 lakh and 60 lakh shares in open interest, respectively. Among call options, the highest open interest is at the 5200 strike of above 65 lakh shares, followed by the 5300-strike call with open interest of above 60 lakh shares. The options data imply that markets may remain range-bound in the near term. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options is at 27.32%, while that for puts closed at 32.23% .The Nifty is expected to remain in a range of 4900-5200 levels. The 5050 level should sustain in the near term and is extremely crucial for any recovery towards 5200 levels. However, in our view, in the current scenario, the Index may continue to face stiff resistance around 5150- 5200 levels and may remain sideways-to-bullish in the near term”.
PINC RESEARCH: “The uncertainty of the market direction during the course of the week owing to anticipation of the RBI rate hike ended on Friday. Since clarity has now emerged, the technical of the market need not be as dependent on any news. So as the Nifty shut shop at 5084 for the week, there are few fascinating technical facts emerging. a) Global markets continue to remain weak. b) The medium term psychological momentum continues to favour the sellers. c) Volumes and market breadth have been quite erratic and hence do not offer any cues. d) The medium term technical indicators continue to remain bearish while the short term technical are in the neutral territory. Hence, even though there is a negative undertone to the market over the medium term, the short term technical lack directionality. The Nifty is currently trading below an important medium term moving average. Also, it is confirmed by medium term indicator which is also confirming this bearish possibility. Due to this, lower targets for the Nifty in case of any declines comes to around 4700-4800. Any advances on the upside should face headwinds around 5200-5250 zone. Hence, we retain our weak view for the Nifty in the medium term. In this condition, we reiterate that significant resistance exists at 5200-5250 levels”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is typically in a reactive sideways mode and in the short term time frame the market is still capable of climbing up to its next logical target of 5265 and if it turns around then the market could also slide down to 4885. From a trading point of view I would watch the 5000 mark and trade long. For Monday, the support for the Nifty is at 5025 and resistance at 5150-5200”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Our benchmark indices registered a Weekly low of 16374/4911 after breaching 16488/4942 level. However, indices failed to sustain below the low of the "Spinning Top" as they bounced twice from the Weekly low. We reiterate our view that as long as the high of the "Spinning Top" (17212/5169) is not violated we may witness a selling pressure near this resistance levels. Any move beyond 17212/5169 level would lead to negation of the pattern and then indices may rally towards 17250-17600/5200–5300 levels. On the downside, last week low of 16374/4911 level would act as a support and a breach of this level would reinforce selling pressure. In such a scenario, Indices may test recent bottom of 15765/4720. Broadly speaking, for the coming week, we expect the trading range to be between 17212-16374/5169-4911 levels”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been taking support near 4910 for last few trading session. So 4910 become a short term crucial base of Nifty. Now Nifty is facing a stiff resistance near 5230. If it breaches 5230, an upward rally might carry it to 5400 in the short term. However, a breach of 4910 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may further go down to 4800 and then 4700. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4910 of all long positions. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5020 and the resistance is 5110. If Nifty breaks 5020, it may further go down to 4970 and then 4910. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5110, the level of 5170-5230 would become the next target”.
IIFL (WEEKLY WRAP): “Nifty undergone wild volatility in the last week but managed to recover its lost ground, on back of supportive global markets. The formation of lower high and lower low on the weekly chart remains alarming with Nifty strength has been faltering as it heads near 5177 levels. Hence clear positive trend is likely to occur on a close above 5200 in the near term. The weekly RSI is flirting with resistance of 45 levels which earlier acted as strong support when Nifty traded above 5200 levels”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “The markets performed well during the week but the upward movement was confined to large-cap counters and mid-cap and small-cap stocks lost significantly. This week, Nifty may likely to trade in the range between 5250 in the upper side and 4850 in the lower side”.
SHAREKHAN: “In the upcoming week, the Indian markets will track global events for further course of action. Markets on Monday (September 19, 2011) may react to the outcome of the two-day meeting (September 16-17, 2011) of euro-zone Finance Ministers. Developments in the Europe will continue to remain in focus”.
HEM SECURITIES: “The market edged higher for the third consecutive week as euro-zone debt worries eased a bit. Easing of overseas borrowing rules by the government which will help Indian firms tap cheaper cash abroad boosted sentiment. For Monday, markets are expected to be upward”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish engulfing candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed above the 20 day moving average (4978) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to positive. Stochastics trending higher at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4900-5300. The next area of resistance is around at 5300-5375. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bullish trading on weekly chart having supports at 5000-4920 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4890 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5300-5375 and supports at 5000-4920. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17675-17900 and supports at 16670-16400. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9970-10175 and supports at 9500-9400”.
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