The BSE Sensex was up 144.71 points or 0.87% to 16,821.46. The index gained 313.11 points at the day's high of 16,989.86 in early trade. The index rose 11.31 points at the day's low of 16,688.06 in mid-afternoon trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was up 39 points or 0.78% to 5,040. The index gyrated between 5,113.70 and 4,993.35 amid high volatility. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.81% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.03%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1707 shares rose and 1161 shares fell and a total of 113 shares remained unchanged. Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 20 rose while the rest declined.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 1158.38 crore whereas DII were net sellers of ` 346.28 crore on Friday, the 30th August 2011(prov. fig.)
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the rally in the Indian markets continuing for the third consecutive session, the short term trend has turned up as the Nifty has managed to cross its previous highs of 4965. The intermediate and long term trend however remain down as there is no confirmed signal that a fresh long term uptrend has begun. Global indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq too are in intermediate downtrends. We therefore continue with our cautious approach on positional longs till we have more evidence of a fresh intermediate uptrend”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “There are no major market moving events in the next week. Though valuations are reasonable, it remains to be seen whether the rally sustains in the next week given pressure points like firm Crude prices, high inflation and softening of economic growth. In current times of volatility, we continue to recommend stocks with strong balance sheet, clean corporate governance track record and reasonable visibility of growth. For retail investors it can be good time to build a portfolio of quality stocks”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after a good show of last two sessions, Friday Nifty again witnessed a very buoyant session and overcame some of its vital resistances. This helped indices not only to close on a firm note for three consecutive sessions but also to confirm the bullishness of past sessions by making three bullish soldiers pattern. Friday’s speedy upward acceleration supported Nifty to close above its vital supports of 5025, which may be a motivating factor for bulls. On Friday Nifty – near month future turned to trade at good premium w.r.t. spot, which is a point of rejoice for bulls. Technically, this firm bull candle confirmed a short term bullishness. By Friday’s excellent upmove, Nifty successfully maintained the sanctity of its coveted support of 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 4903 & 4956 but closed below the vital support levels of 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5351 & 5461 levels; this may be the new ranges in forthcoming sessions. Buying spree in large caps, small cap & mid cap supported Bulls to snatch control from bears, because of which, Indices closed with firm market breadth. VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a corrected level of 26.09, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 45.73 levels and MACD closed above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may continue to witness some upward spikes”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing selling pressure for 5 consecutive weeks, Nifty showed good strength from support in 4700-4800 zone, which shows that bulls are having control at the moment. Recovery may be continuing, if Nifty maintains above 5000 levels else profit booking may emerge. Selective buying may be seen in defensive stocks with strict stoploss levels. Global equity indices may play important role in sentiment preparation in our market. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5000. If Nifty shows strength above 5000 levels then we may see rally 5125/5200/5250/5300 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5000 levels then selling pressure till 4925/4850/4800/4750 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Buy | 4960-4980 | 5025-5040 | 4940 |
| For the Week | Buy | 4900-4940 | 5020-5050-5120 | 4870 |
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty till it holds above 5,000, with stoploss below 4,980, targeting 5,050-5,100 levels.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Nifty has recovered 6% during the last week, led by technically oversold conditions supported with value buying and improvement in sentiments by end of Anna Hazare fast. The reforms process is back on track with the first move taken by RBI by issuing draft guidelines for issuing banking license. The govt has also given indication to table the Land Acquisition Bill in the ongoing monsoon session of parliament, which is positive for various industries and infrastructure sector. Indian economy has posted GDP growth of 7.7% in 1QFY12, which is inline with consensus. Decline in private consumption and savings clearly indicates that high inflation is weighing on consumer wallet and govt need to fix this on priority basis. With ongoing monsoon been normal and well scattered, post harvesting of kharif crop, food inflation may come under comfortable range, supported by high base effect of last year. However, the inflation which is imported (crude oil, metals etc) is not in control of govt and investors need to keenly watch the monetary policy of US and Europe (to spur growth in their respective economy) and its effect on currency, crude oil and commodities prices. On 16th Sept 11, there is RBI meet and 25 bps hike is expected and discounted by the street. The street is waiting for signs of non-hawkish stance by RBI before building fresh longs in the market. In addition, globally all eyes will be on FED meet (20-21 Sept11), so as to know any QE3 package and its impact on currency and commodities prices. Overall, by then our market will continues to follow global cues and we advise investors to accumulate quality stocks on every dip. Nifty has support at 4993 and 4927 and resistance at 5114 and 5196”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has given a close a tad below its crucial resistance level of 5050. A further up move can be expected if it is able to breach these levels convincingly. On the higher side, 5300 may impose a significant resistance for the index. At the same time, a move below 5000 can drag it further towards 4800. The Bank Nifty is also trading close to the immediate resistance of 9600 and further movement towards 9900 cannot be ruled out due to short covering if it is able to surpass 9650. On the downsides, 9400 levels should provide significant support to the Index”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Indian markets bounced back last week on the back of global cues and short covering as indices witnessed significant rally breaching 5000 levels. We expect any further selling pressure to intensify only below 4900 levels. The highest concentration of open interest has shifted lower to the 4800-strike put option, with open interest of above 60 lakh shares for the September series. This is closely followed by the 5300 and 5200 call-option strikes, which have above 50 lakh shares in open interest each. The options data implies that markets will face pressure on rise from current levels. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options is at 21.17%, while that for puts closed at 22.03% for the week. The put-call ratio of open interest continued to drop last week and closed higher at 1.43 levels. However, in our view, in the current scenario, the Index may continue to face stiff resistance around 5200 levels. A breach of the 4900 level will intensify the selling pressure”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is still weak and looks like in a reaction mode and the reaction could continue up too but looks like 5200-5250 is a stiff resistance to deal with and I would watch the crucial 5000 level and trade long as the breach of 5000 would be the first indication of weakness. From a trading point of view I would watch 5000 as a crucial support and trade long as long as 5000 holds”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The Weekly chart depicts a positive crossover in "RSI" momentum oscillator. The "20 EMA" on the Daily chart is placed at 16825/5052 level. We are now observing that indices have closed marginally below "20 EMA" on Friday's session which is placed at 16825/5052 level. Generally, the "20 EMA" is considered as a decent support/resistance. Therefore, going forward, indices may face some resistance near 16825/5052 level on a closing basis. On the positive front, the "RSI" momentum oscillator on the Weekly chart has given a positive crossover which indicates a possibility of a further bounce if indices manage to sustain above Friday's high of 16990/5114. In this case, they are likely to rally towards17100-17250/5150-5200 levels. On the downside, if indices break 16688/4993 then they are likely to drift towards 16250-16550/4950-4870 levels. Therefore, we advise our traders to stick to a stock centric approach and avoid heavy trading on a positional basis”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “After making a low of 4720.00 on 26th August, 2011, Nifty has given a pull back rally of almost 8.34 % in a time span of just four trading sessions. Now it is facing a strong resistance near 5230. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5230, an upward rally might take it to 5400 in the short term. However, a breach of 4800 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may further go down and take support in the band of 4700-4650. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 4940 and the resistance is 5080. If Nifty breaks 4940, it may further go down to 4870 and then 4800. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5080, the level of 5150-5230 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “It was a positive, though truncated, week for the Indian market which saw the Nifty move up beyond the 5000 mark. Global cues were mixed but the Indian market remained steady and closed with significant gains in almost all sectors. This week's performance was good. This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5170-5250 in the upper side and 4850-4750 in the lower side”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “On the daily chart, RSI continues to move northwards and weekly candle too has made a positive formation. Beside this on the hourly chart Nifty continues to formed higher top and higher bottom. Thus now on upside Nifty has strong resistance at 5095 and above that 5211 which are 38.20% and 50% retracement level of the recent fall from 5702 to 4720. However downside in near term now Nifty has support at 4966 and below that in medium term Nifty has support at 4777 levels”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On weekly charts, we can observe that RSI is moving northbound and Stochastic has given a positive crossover. For the coming week, 4940 is the immediate support for the week. If the index slips below these levels then the selling pressure will cause Nifty to get support near 4860/4790 levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 5120 levels on any bounce back. Strength can be seen if it decisively maintains above these levels. Further gains are likely to face resistance towards 5200/5305 levels. Traders are advised to trade with strict stop-loss”.
EMKAY GLOBAL (Sarvendra Srivastava): “DJIA one final push till 11,800 (200 DEMA) could be pending before the pullback completes, risk rewards though now favour bears, 11,800-11,850 remains a formidable resistance. Nifty 5,100-5,200 remains a similar range for Nifty, 5,200 remains the lower end of the bearish gap and best case upsides; meaning that every up-tick, will tilt the risk reward in favour of bears. Bank Nifty too best part of the current bounce seems over, 38.2% retracement levels pegged around 9,900 remain the immediate target/resistance for prices”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “The pullback was smart and swift in interest rate sensitive sectors. However the near term outlook still remains hazy. Interest rate is likely to move higher in short term as expectations are of a further rate hike in the next RBI policy meeting. Inflation has remained stubbornly high which has been a primary concern of RBI. Slowdown is visible in the recent GDP numbers as well. But to avoid a hard landing, RBI may continue with the rate hikes. Given the international volatile environment and domestic macro pressures, volatility is expected in domestic market as well. Valuations now are reasonable in several sectors and thus market should find investment support on declines. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4806.20 and made a high of 5133.70 and made a low of 4806.05 then finally closed negative at 5040. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly moving out from the oversold territory signalling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. The close above the weekly 200 moving average (4840) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to positive. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move sideways especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat positive trend with trading range between 4800-5200. The next area of resistance is around at 5098-5180. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bullish trading on weekly chart having supports at 4925-4800 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4925 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5090-5180 and supports at 4925-4800. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16990-17252 and supports at 16350-16155. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9879-10100 and supports at 9310-9220”.
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