"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (25.08.2011)"

FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 883.48 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 561.10 crore on Wednesday, the 24th August 2011(prov. fig.) 
The BSE Sensex fell 213.49 points or 1.29% to settle at 16,284.98, its lowest closing level since 19 August 2011. The Sensex lost 244.69 points at the day's low of 16,253.78 at the fag end of the trading session. The index rose 34.75 points at the day's high of 16,533.22 in morning trade. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 60 points or 1.21% to settle at 4,888.90, its lowest closing level since 19 August 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 4,962.40 and low of 4,875.30 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.54% and the BSE Small-Cap index shed 0.51%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 
The market breadth turned negative from positive in late trade. On BSE, 1,528 shares declined and 1,313 shares advanced and a total of 112 shares remained unchanged. The market breadth was strong earlier in the day. Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 27 declined while only two of them managed gains. 
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES: 
HDFC SECURITIES:Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green following positive global cues and later move downwards during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Realty stocks could underperform”. 
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, after a good show of previous session, today indices discontinued the gained momentum and lost its buying support. This compelled the indices not only to close on a weak note but also in giving up vital supports. This made Nifty to close below its vital support of 4900, which may be a discouraging factor for bulls. Today Nifty – near month future closed in discount w.r.t. spot, which is another point of concern. Technically, today’s down move confirmed the short term weakness in our market. In accordance to ongoing trend, Nifty closed below the vital support levels of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 4981, 5052, 5395 & 5510 levels; this may continue to spoil the bulls’ sentiments in forthcoming sessions. After a supremacy of last two sessions, selling in large caps, small cap & mid cap forced Bulls to yield to bears, because of which, Indices closed with weak market breadth. This may support selling sentiments in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed after zooming to 28.60, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 29.4 levels and MACD remained below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may continue to witness downtrend with occasional relief”. 
BONANZA ONLINE: Nifty continued selling pressure from resistance near 4950 levels and closed in red. Nifty August future expiry due on Thursday therefore volatile movement may be seen. Sentiment may remain weak below 4950 levels. Nifty may continue trade in 4700-5100 zones for next few days. For daily purpose, Trend deciding level is 4900. If Nifty shows strength above 4900 levels, then rally to 4950/5000/5050 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4900 levels then selling pressure till 4850/4800/4750/4700 may also be seen”. 
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):Bargain hunting has been inching the Nifty upwards for last two days, however as was expected the inherent weakness in the Indian markets became apparent today. Even with the positive global cues, the sentiments remained subdued. The Indian Government will have to do substantial efforts to make investors regain their confidence. Market is likely to be volatile tomorrow as it will be the last day of the August series derivative expiry session”. 
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 4,900, with stoploss at 4,920, targeting 4,850 levels”. 
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): The market unfolded weak and has closed in the red. Technically the market is still weak and volatility is not ruled on the last day of the F&O expiry week. There exists a strong resistance near 4950-5020 and the market could drift down towards 4800 zones. The support for the Nifty is at 4850-4800 and resistance at 4950-5020-5050”. 
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): Our indices opened on a subdued note but could not manage to cross previous days high as selling pressure intensified near resistance level 16550/4966. Going forward, 16550/4966 level may act as resistance in coming sessions. If indices manage to cross this level then they are likely to rally towards 16660–16750/5000–5050 levels. On the downside, if indices break 16213/4863 level then they may drift towards the recent lows of 15987/4796. Due to derivative expiry, the coming trading session is likely to trade with extreme volatility and choppiness. Hence, traders are advised to stay light on positions and trade with strict stop losses”. 
IIFL (Amar Ambani):Thursday’s F&O expiry could make the markets a bit more volatile. At the same time, we cannot rule out a short covering led rally. A bullish confirmation of breakout would only happen if the Nifty ends above 4,976. Till then sustainability of any rise will be at risk. From a short-term perspective, 4,900 and 5,000 are crucial levels to watch”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been moving in the band of 4795 and 4965 for last four days. Yesterday the bears were dominated the market. Now the short term crucial support of Nifty lies at 4790. If Nifty breaches 4790, it may further go down to 4650 in the extreme short term. However, a move above 5020 would open the gate for 5200. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4790 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4840 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 4920. If Nifty breaks 4840, it may further go down to 4810 and then 4790. However, if it is able to sustain above 4920, the level of 4965–5020 would become the next target”. 
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 16,357/4,909 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,461–16,637/ 4,942–4,996 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 16,357/4,909 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,181–16,078/4,855–4,822 levels”. 
BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra):Nifty continued selling pressure from resistance near 4,950 levels and closed in red. Nifty August future expiry due on Thursday therefore volatile movement may be seen. Sentiment may remain weak below 4,950 levels. Nifty may continue trade in 4,700-5,100 zones for next few days. For daily purpose, the trend deciding level is 4,900. If Nifty shows strength above 4,900 levels, then rally to 4,950/5,000/5,050 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4,900 levels then selling pressure till 4,850/4,800/4,750/4,700 may also be seen”. 
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:The markets lost significantly in Wednesday trade and Auto Banks and Metal were the worst performers of trade. For today’s trade market likely to trade in the range between 4910 & 4970 in the upper side and 4840 & 4810 in the lower side”. 
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:Indian equity benchmarks lost further ground in the last half hour of trade as profit booking was seen despite positive European cues. Fresh short positions were built up in banking, auto and select metal stocks ahead of F&O expiry tomorrow. The intermediate short term trend still remains nervous and if nifty future breaks below 4800 then we could see fresh round of selling emerging. Avoid buying below 4800 levels. For the Sensex below 16000 witness strong weakness”. 
SWASTIKA INVESTMART:For the coming session, 4840 is the immediate support for Nifty and if this is broken, next support is seen at 4800/4770. On higher levels, 4930 is the immediate resistance for it and any gains above these levels are likely to face stiff resistance at 4960/5000. Traders are advised to trade in small quantities and with a strict Stop-Loss”. 
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES:Nifty has taken a resistance at 4,960 and is now headed toward 4,780-4,720 support levels. On the upside 4,960 continues to be a resistance level”. 
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