The BSE Sensex tumbled 387.31 points or 2.19% to settle at 17,305.87, its lowest closing level since 11 June 2010. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 120.55 points or 2.26% to 5,211.25, its lowest closing level since 14 June 2010. The market breadth was weak. On BSE, 2,364 shares declined while 609 shares managed gains and a total of 64 shares remained unchanged. From the 30 share Sensex pack, 26 stocks fell while only four of them managed gains.
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 1788.96 crore on Friday, the 5th August 2011(prov. fig.); FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 3028.05 crore in the last week whereas DIIs are the net buyers of ` 2156.09 crore.
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 1788.96 crore on Friday, the 5th August 2011(prov. fig.); FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 3028.05 crore in the last week whereas DIIs are the net buyers of ` 2156.09 crore.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
DANI SECURITIES: “The market may witness further selling pressure hit by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) aggressive rate hike at a policy review on 26 July 2011. On Monday, 8 August 2011, Indian shares will react to the US government's key monthly jobs report for July 2011. The data could provide cues on the health of the world's biggest economy”.
HDFC SECURITIES: “With Friday's sell-off, the Sensex/Nifty have broken a long term upward sloping trend line that has held the important lows of the last 18 months. We expect further weakness in the coming week. Immediate Nifty supports to watch are at 5177-5117”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, lower highs and higher lows pattern continued in today’s trade and as per ongoing bearish trend, Nifty witnessed yet another weak show. Despite low RSI, heavy selling with good volumes took Nifty hard and it drifted into red zone. In today’s trade, Nifty lost its vital supports of 5300 but it regained the vital 5200 level after losing it in intraday trade. This may be a trigger point for recovery. Today’s weak candle is confirming the bearishness of our market in short term. On account of weakness, Nifty for the eighth successive session closed below the vital support levels of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5446, 5503, 5518 & 5576 levels; this may continue to spoil the recovery sentiments in forthcoming sessions. On account of weakness in small cap & mid cap, today Bears completely knocked down the bulls, because of which, Indices closed with extensively weak market breadth. This may hamper any recovery sentiments in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a higher level of 24.90%, indicating more volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 29.09 levels and MACD remained below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may witness some temporary relief but to discontinue its weak trend it has to decisively overcome the resistance of 5450”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Closing at below 5252 with the breaching the intraday level of 5177 has confirmed the FLAT PATTERN of the LARGER PATTERN of the correction on the weekly chart only on today so be ready for the big correction in the coming months as the market has entered into in C-WAVE of the Flat Pattern which started from Nov.2010 now has been confirmed. In this week the market seems to be very volatile so the range for the Nifty may be 5040-5252 and the resistance for the Nifty may be at 5348 and the crucial resistance for the week will be at @5400 and the support for the Nifty may be at @4950-4970 after breaking the level of 5040 and the crucial support for the Nifty will be @4780. Our view for the market is bearish and one should take an opportunity to sell at current market price or at every rise”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed selling pressure for 2nd consecutive week as Nifty broke important support zone 5300-5350 levels on downside, which shows that bears are having control at the movement. Selling pressure may be continuing, if Nifty maintains below 5200 levels. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5200. If Nifty shows strength above 5200 levels then we may see rally 5300-5350/5400/5450 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5200 levels then selling pressure till 5100/5050/5000/4950 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Sell | 5200-5220 | 5120-5080 | 5240 |
For the Week | Sell | 5200-5250 | 5100-5050 | 5280 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “True to the trend, Nifty witnessed selling pressure, slipping below all the intermediate support levels. However the magnitude of the correction and the volumes associated with it took everybody by surprise. U.S market will have important announcement on Friday night pertaining to non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate. Any significant development related to above news in the overseas markets is likely to have effect on our market as well. Nifty VIX (Volatility Index) has witnessed a significant increase, hence a cautious stance is advised since the market movements are expected to be volatile”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 5,230 levels, with stop loss at 5,250, targeting 5,180-5,150 levels”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 5,230 levels, with stop loss at 5,250, targeting 5,180-5,150 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty today came down towards 5,116 and recovered from there and closed above 5,200. We can’t say that it’s time to invest back all our funds. But investors can start buying in small quantities in fundamentally strong companies which are at attractive valuations. Nifty still hasn’t reversed completely and so short term players should have their positions properly hedged. If Nifty moves below 5,116, then further selling can be seen towards 4,800 levels in the near term”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Intensifying growth concerns and deteriorating sovereign debt ratings from the west have resulted in a worldwide sell-off in equities. Our markets were no exception, pulling down sharply across the board. Metals and technology sectors, which have a high linkage to global economic growth, and real estate and high-debt companies came in for a severe pounding. In the near term, our markets would be very much coupled with the markets in the west. If we extend our horizon a bit longer, we are likely to outperform on the premise that likely lower commodity inflation owing to slowing global economic growth combined with India’s high domestic oriented economy and strong growth prospects would attract global savings for our markets. Since the decoupling is unlikely to happen immediately and therefore we too are going to be prone to the vagaries of global markets, cheap might become cheaper in the short term; so we would advise to wait and not jump in just yet. One can only be selective at this point in time; however, we remain positive from a medium term perspective. We expect consumption and healthcare to continue to outperform. IT, commodities, real estate and capex-based sectors and high-debt companies are likely to be the underperformers. We are neutral on banks, though deterioration in credit quality is possible. Technically markets are oversold and therefore we could witness a pullback; however this could be construed as a relief rally only and be short lived. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5177 & 5100 levels and would face resistance at 5252 & 5323 levels”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty is likely to trade volatile in accordance with global cues and may remain bearish till it remains below 5330 on the higher side. The immediate support for the index is at 5120/5050. On upsides, 5330/5450 should provide a major resistance. Bank Nifty continued its negative movement and declined another 4.5% in the last week. Both public and private sector banks witnessed selling pressure and dragged the index till 10150. Important support levels for the Bank Nifty lie around 10000/9800 while resistance can be seen around 10600/10900”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Global markets fell sharply last week. Majority of stocks failed to see even a minor round of short covering indicating further downside going forward. However every downside will see short positions getting covered. Also with a vast majority of positions in the market being on the short side, traders should beware of sharp bounce due to short covering. Market is expected to hover in the range of 5000-5300 in the near term. If the Index slips below the 5150 mark, it could slide to 5000 levels, owing to increased selling pressure. However, the sustenance of 5200 levels is extremely important for the Index to showcase any recovery towards higher resistances of 5350. Technically, the Index has breached all moving averages which is a cause of concern. The August contract ended the week at a premium of 8.75 Points while the September series ended at a 25 point premium. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 0.88. The highest concentration of open interest is currently at the 5500-strike call and 5000-strike put options, which have above 60 lakh shares each in open interest. The options build-up in the 5500 strike indicates stiff resistance in the medium term, while the highest open interest among put options (being in the 5000 strike) indicates crucial support in the short term. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options was 20.27% while the average IV of put options was 23.14%. However in the current scenario, the Index will continue to face stiff resistance around 5300-5350 levels and it may fall towards 5000 level in the current expiry”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market unfolded weak as expected no doubt about it but it was a carnage that was unexpected. Technically the market is weak. We have seen carnage and there is no sign of strength witnessed so far, the bar generated for the day is a potential change in trend bar but is not confirmed as yet. We could see a bounce but that again could be a selling rallies as strong resistance exists at 5340, the downside is still open. The support for the nifty could be at 5100 or 4778 and strong resistance exists at 5340. From a trading point of view I would be cautious and be in profit booking mode at every rise until a bottom is confirmed. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 17000-15986 and resistance at 17737”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “A global carnage in the financial markets was perhaps long overdue. The initial jubilation over the passing of the US debt deal has swiftly given way to considerable pain. Relatively safer havens like gold, bonds, yen and Swiss francs may continue to attract interest due to global risk aversion. Whether this is a temporary panic sell-off or a deeper correction is anybody’s guess. Medium to long term gains are made in times like these. But, don’t get carried away as there might be some more poison left in the system. Amid the worldwide bloodbath, there is reason to rejoice; the steep fall in crude oil prices lately is good for countries like India. Federal Reserve policymakers will closely analyse the July jobs data before they meet on Tuesday. Fed chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his FOMC colleagues could address some of the concerns on the US economy and may also comment on the recent turmoil in the financial markets”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “After making a high of 5702.25 on last 26th July, Nifty has given a correction of almost 10.28% in a time span of just eight trading sessions. Now it is facing a strong support near 5110. If Nifty breaches 5110, the short term trend would become negative and Nifty may go down further and test the level of 4950. However, a move above 5300 would open the gate for 5440 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 5110 of all long positions. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5110 and the resistance is 5300. If Nifty breaks 5110, it may further go down to 5030 and then 4950. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5300, the level of 5380-5380 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets closed with significant losses this week and along with all sectoral indices, both benchmark indices closed negative. The Sensex and Nifty lost 5% during the week. This week Nifty is likely to trade in the range between 5350-5450 in the upper side and 5040-5000 in the lower side”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “Next Week the Government will announce IIP data for the month of June on Friday which will show the Industrial growth status. The market will be very volatile and trying to break one range of 5150 & 5300 which will decide further direction for markets. Currently market stands at very crucial level of 5200 short covering & panic selling will play as a bull & bear fighters in the market”.
HEM SECURITIES: “Global concerns continued to wreck havoc in the Indian bourses during the week ended 5th August 2011 as the participation of the foreign institutional investors (FII) and portfolio investors remained thin. For Monday the markets are expected to be down”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “In coming days Nifty can bounce back to 5,330 levels and 5,460 acts as major resistance in future but the overall trend remains bearish as major supports of 5,180 were broken in Intraday. Any rise can be used to go short in the markets. Immediate supports come around 5,033-4,890”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Indian markets traded on weak global cues. Global cues remain uncertain in the coming week. S&P has downgraded US credit rating from AAA to AA+ for the first time in history. This would affect the markets in the coming week and investors would prefer to exit from the equity markets to safer options. The domestic markets are also likely to see downward trend. IT sector is likely to remain under pressure. On the derivatives front, put writing is seen at 5000, 5200 and call writing is seen at 5400-5500, suggesting 5000-5500 to be the trading zone for the August series. The trend remains downward. Heavy selling by FIIs might drag Nifty to 5000 levels. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment in coming sessions. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly overbought and sideways signaling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. The close below the 50 day moving average (5517) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways to negative trend with trading range between 5000-5380. The next area of resistance is around at 5325-5375. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bearish trading on weekly chart having supports at supports at 5100-5000 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 5150 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5320-5375 and supports at 5100-4950. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17670-17860 and supports at 16900-16500. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10450-10600 and supports at 10000-9750”.
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