The BSE Sensex was down 56.28 points or 0.3% to settle at 18,561.92, its lowest closing level since 12 July 2011. The Sensex jumped 1,001.45 points at the day's high of 19,619.65 in early trade. The index shed 104.98 points at the day's low of 18,513.22 in morning trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 18.70 points or 0.33% to 5,581.10, its lowest closing level since 12 July 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 5,631.70 and a low of 5,562.75 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.11%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.08%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was negative. On BSE, 1,386 shares advanced and 1,481 shares declined and a total of 127 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was positive earlier in the day. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 22 stocks fell while the rest of them rose.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 73.03 crore on Friday, the 15h July 2011(prov. fig.)
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “It is important that the immediate lows of the Sensex/Nifty at 18326/5496 hold in the coming week. If these levels hold, there is a possibility that the markets could slowly climb back up towards their recent highs of 19131/5740. The markets may possibly be building strength before they eventually break out of the downward sloping trend line that has held down the highs of Nov 10, Jan 11 and Apr 11. Upside momentum is likely to accelerate only once the Sensex/Nifty move above this downward sloping trend line. In this scenario, we could see the Sensex/Nifty racing towards their previous highs of 19697-19811/5913-5945. Our hypothesis of consolidation with a positive bias would turn wrong if the main indices turn lower and break their immediate lows of 18326/5496. This would then bring into focus the next support levels of 18132/5434. The current intermediate uptrend would reverse with a closing under 17314/5195. A close below these levels of 17314/5195 would also lead to the long term upward sloping trend line that has held the lows of Nov 2009, Feb 2010 and May 2010 being broken. This would then bring into focus the lows of 17295/5177 that were touched in Feb 2011. Being the immediate major lows of the Sensex/Nifty, the 17295/5177 levels are currently the long-term trend reversal levels. Strategy for the week: Given the expectation of range bound trading with a positive bias, we recommend using any dips to enter on the long side with a stop loss below our crucial levels of 18326/5496. Shorts must be built only if these levels of 18326/5496 are broken”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Srikant Chouhan): “For the coming week, Nifty is expected to remain choppy in the range of 5,450 and 5,740. Traders should look for initiating longs only above 5,630. Important resistance to watch for the week is of 5,700 on a close basis. Trading above the level of 5,650 will be attracting short covering in the market and in that case markets can extend its gains minimum to the level of 5,700 and maximum 5,740 on higher side. Conquering the level of 5,770 will be hard landing on the bears, extending gains further to the tune of 5,920 and 6,050 on the higher side. However, if Nifty slips towards 5,530 early in the week might find a soft patch, prices can turn higher, but extending the slippage beyond the level of 5,500 will find a rough patch exposing the crucial supports of 5,430 and 5,350 on the lower side. Market reversal stands at 5,550 on close basis. Decisive close below 5,550 will signal potential reversal in trend. Strategy for the week: Traders should look for initiating longs above 5,630 for target of 5,740 with stop at 5,600 on close basis. Option traders can look for initiating put positions around 5,750 levels with stop of 5,770 on closing basis. Infra and Power stocks to remain in lime light in this week”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty witnessed a highly ranged show after an initial rise. For most of the time Nifty had been traded sideways looking for triggers to breach on either side. Nifty didn’t witness any big gyrations, owing to which lower supports remained intact. Near month future of Nifty closed at premium w.r.t. spot that may support buying in coming session also, by maintaining a bullish tempo. Bulls ultimately lost control of the market to bears and indices closed with negative market breadth. This may offer hindrance to the buying sentiments in coming sessions. Nifty managed to close above the vital supports of 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 5505 & 5568, but still closed below the vital 9 & 14 day’s SMA levels placed at 5617 & 5616 respectively. These levels may act as new ranges in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a little higher level of 19.97%, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 52.16 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness some range bound movement with higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “The Nifty is right now consolidating in the range of 5495-5655 and if it comes down in this range one can take an opportunity to trade in this. As such no specific pattern has formed in the last trading of the week on the daily chart. Although the Nifty had already retraced from the top level i.e. 38.2% on the closing basis. So the range for the Nifty may be in between 5552-5632 and the resistance may occur after breaching the level of 5632 is 5655 and the crucial resistance for the day will be at 5693 and the support for the Nifty may be at 5495-5501 if it breaks the level of 5552 and the key support for the Nifty will be at 5480. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11140-11350. Below this range 11060 may act as strong support level while 11410 may act as strong resistance level”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing indecision previous week, Bears took control and selling pressure was seen. Nifty has resistance at 5650 levels and support at 5550 levels. Some direction movement may be seen, If Nifty decisively manages to trade above 5650 or below 5550 levels. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5600. If Nifty shows strength above 5600 levels then we may see rally 5650/5700/5750/5800 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5600 levels then profit booking till 5550/5500/5450/5400 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Sell | 5620-5640 | 5580-5555 | 5665 |
| For the Week | Sell | 5610-5640 | 5570/5555/5520 | 5665 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Nifty has been unable to close above 5600 level for the fourth consecutive day. Not only this, Nifty is also facing strong resistance in the zone of 5630-5650, until Nifty closes above this range, the short term trend remains bearish. Good support exists at 5490-5500 levels. Global developments continue to play pivotal role in the preparation of market sentiments”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5,550 levels else around 5,530 levels, with stop loss placed at 5,500, targeting 5,600-5,630 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “For Nifty it still has the 5,650 intact and a close above this level will strengthen the market in its upside towards 5,733 (200 DMA). On the other hand the support is there at 5,537, 5,500 and 5,475 levels”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Our markets have shown resilience amidst uncertainty in the western markets. The FII flows has not altered significantly (- `1bn over the last four sessions) for India despite macro concerns. Globally equities underperformed owing to sell-off in sovereign bonds for countries like Italy and Spain, lending yet another round of ambiguity to the whole recovery process. The chances of sovereign downgrades have increased in Europe, which could possibly create risk aversion towards risky asset classes, generally leading to a stronger gold. With IIP numbers continuing to be a drag and crude not giving up as yet, we remain cautious in the near term and therefore maintain that the markets would not do much on either sides, thereby giving traders an opportunity to trade on both the sides. Healthcare and consumption are likely to outperform in the medium term. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5540 & 5460 levels and would face resistance at 5632 & 5680 levels”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Nifty may remain in the range of 5500-5650 in near term. Long positions can be assumed at dips with final stop loss place around 5490. 5640 levels may act as stiff resistance levels in the near term while next important resistance can be experienced around 5720 levels. Trade long only if the Bank Nifty sustains above 10900 levels for target of 11400. Below 10900 levels it may test 10700 marks. On the higher side 10600 levels should impose stiff resistances”.
SMC ONLINE(WISE MONEY): “Markets remained choppy and volatile, producing wild intraday swings throughout the week. Hereafter, the range of 5500-5700 will remain crucial in the near term, and the move is expected to remain volatile. If Nifty slips below the 5500 mark, it could slide to 5400 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the contrary, the index may face stiff resistance at 5650-5700 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest closed lower at 1.12 levels. The options open interest concentration continued to be at 5700 strike call and 5800 call with the highest open interest of above 90 lakh and 89 lakh shares. Among the put options, the 5500-strike taking the total open interest to more than 1 crore shares, with the highest open interest among put options. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 18.36% on Friday, while the average IV of put options inched higher to close at 18.05%. The Nifty is expected to remain in a broad range of 5500-5700 levels, with an intermediary support at around 5550 levels. The move may remain mixed amid increased volatility, with resistance near 5700 levels”.
PINC RESEARCH: “Nifty’s weekly closing around 5600 suggests that two scenarios could unravel in the near future. (1) Nifty breaches the resistance of 5700 on the upside: In such a situation, there is a strong probability for it to advance higher towards our mentioned target of 6050-6075 or more. (2) Nifty continues to remain sluggish for a few more trading sessions: In such a set up, the Nifty may dilly dally within a trading range of 5700 and 5400. The price pattern of such a scenario is yet to completely crystallize but a microscopic examination of the current structure indicates that an eventual breakout above 5700 could happen. The level of 5400 on the downside is critical support in this scenario. ”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market has managed to stay above the crucial level of 5540. Technically the market is sluggishly up and there exists a strong resistance around 5700 and again a crucial support at 5540, the break of which will spoil the chart structure. Technically the structure of the last week is suggestive of a reactive up move and so 5700 is a stiff resistance to deal with however on the down side 5450 is a possibility. From a trading point of view I would be cautious and be in profit booking mode as 5700 is still a stiff resistance to work with. The support for the Nifty is at 5540 and resistance at 5618-5700. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 18465 and resistance at 18730”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “The Indian market has largely emerged unscathed from the latest terrorist attack on Mumbai. But, the undertone is still jittery over a spate of local and global headwinds. For India, the biggest worry is inflation, which refuses to budge and is in fact likely to rise on the back of the fuel price hike. The RBI too is not done with its tightening. One has to adopt a wait-and-see approach as the earnings are still rolling out. For the global economy, the major concern is the credit crisis in the euro-zone and the impasse over debt ceiling in the US. The back-to-back warnings by Moody’s and S&P and regular downgrades of peripheral euro area nations continue to cast a shadow over world markets. The stress test results of European banks will be watched closely”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been trading in the range of 5440 and 5750 for last fifteen trading sessions. We expect this range bound movement of Nifty would be continuing for another few days. If Nifty breaks 5440, it may go down further and take support near 5300 in the short term. However, a breach of 5750 would open the gate for 5900 in the extreme short term For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5520 and the resistance is 5625. If Nifty breaks 5520, it may further go down to 5470 and then 5440. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5625, the level of 5690-5750 would become the next target”.
INDIRA SECURITIES: “The markets lost significantly during the week and Infosys quarterly result that was below expectations played a big role in pulling the markets down. Negative global cues also played their role in dampening the sentiments. This week, Nifty likely to trade in the range of 5700-5750 in upper side and 5500-5400 in lower side”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS (DERIVATIVE): “NIFTY posted Losses of 80 points (or 1.41% fall) over the week. OI in INDEX FUTURES, in value terms went down by 3.18% to Rs. 14,540 0crs over the week (Spot NIFTY during the week witnessed a 'dip' of about 1.41%). This indicates of 'unwinding' of 'Long' positions on INDEX FUTUREs. Significant addition in CALLs OI (of about 22%) at higher strikes suggests huge 'call-writing' activity, limiting the upside. Rise in 'Volatility' (VIX) is an indication of further downside for markets. Overall F&O data suggests further slippage of Indices in the near term, while absence of 'Positive' triggers may also cause drifting of markets. FIIs are still 'net buyer' in CASH segment, their action in F&O suggesting Short build up in INDEX and STOCK FUTURES. They are also seen taking 'hedge' positions through INDEX OPTIONS. In view of this market, in the coming week is more likely to show 'volatility' with stock-specific actions. OPTION Distribution data is suggestive of strong Resistance around 5650-5700 levels of NIFTY”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “During the 5197-5740 upsurge, we had pointed out that the rally was too steep and without any intermediate correction. Because of without correction up-move, a higher bottom on the daily chart could not be formed. Therefore, the recent correction from 5740 to 5497 was much overdue and should be considered healthy. Now there are two possibilities. 1) If Nifty holds on to low of 5497 and crosses the high of 5740. This would complete a higher-top higher-bottom formation on the daily chart which would obviously have bullish implications and we can see the benchmark moving to 5944, the top of year 2011 made in April, very quickly. 2) If Nifty breaks 5497, it would confirm a bearish lower-top lower-bottom formation. In this case Nifty can plunge all the way to around 5200, the level from which the rally started. Therefore, traders are advised to keep a strict stop loss of 5497 in long positions”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On weekly charts, Nifty is facing strong resistance at 5660/5740 and is not able to surpass the trend line. Till we are below this trend line major strength is not seen. Since, Nifty is showing a range bound movement; a breach from this range will trigger the directional movement for Nifty. If it is able to sustain decisively above 5660 levels then only we can see a positive move for the index. For the coming week, nifty can face resistance at 5660-5740 levels whereas on the lower side it has immediate support at 5540/5480. If it trades below these levels, then selling pressure may be seen and the next support for the index is seen at 5400. Next week Markets likely to trade in a particular range of 5500-5700. Results from the big players will declare stocks specific moment”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Nifty’s next level of support come at 5,540-5,460. On the upside 5,750 remains a major hurdle for the market in the coming days”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern with long lower shadow, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 5648.05 and made a high of 5654 and made a low of 5497 then finally closed negative at 5581. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly overbought and sideways signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close above the 65 day moving average (5556) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to positive. Stochastics trending lower at mid-range will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 5500-5740. The next area of resistance is around 5675-5740. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 5525-5470 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 5494 is advisable”.
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