"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR WEDNESDAY (27.04.2011)"

FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 554.03 crore (prov. cash market fig).
The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 38.96 points or 0.2% to 19,545.35. The index lost 277.39 points at the day's low of 19,306.92 in afternoon trade, its lowest level since 20 April 2011. The index gained 41.82 points at the day's high of 19,626.13 in late trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 6.10 points or 0.1% to 5,868.40. The Nifty hit a low of 5,791.55 in intraday trade, its lowest level since 20 April 2011. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.03%. The BSE Small-Cap index also shed 0.03%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was negative. On BSE, 1582 shares declined while 1276 shares advanced and a total of 118 shares remained unchanged. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 20 declined while the rest advanced
BSE clocked turnover of ` 3096 crore, higher than ` 2736.77 crore on Monday, 25 April 2011.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
SKP SECURITIES: “Nifty future may face resistance at 5950-6000 and take Support at 5820-5750”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, after yesterday’s moderate cuts, today, Nifty exhibited a highly volatile show with wide gyrations but managed to close the session with modest cut. Though Nifty breached the vital support of 5800, but owing to good recovery regained it. On the back of a good latent buying, Nifty maintained the vital support of 5,850, which may be a crucial resurrecting point for the bulls. Despite, today’s weak session, for the fourth consecutive day, Nifty managed to close above 9 and 15 day’s SMA placed at 5,830 and 5,851 this may spur positive feeling among the buyers. Today, once again bears outnumbered the bulls, which is a weakening trend for market. At closing, Nifty successfully maintained its closing above 50 and 100 day’s SMA 5,597 and 5,705. These levels may act as new supports, in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX moved a little higher and recorded at 21.71%, indicating higher volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 58.96 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals, that market may witness range bound movements in coming sessions”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:In the next session, again Nifty is expected to trade in a range 5,852-5,905. If sustained below this range it may test 5,810 and 5,780 levels. Further 5930 and 5,944 may act as strong resistance level. As stated in the previous newsletter, traders were suggested to remain bearish as long as Nifty is trading below 5,944. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11,980-11,710. If moved beyond the range 12,060 may act as a strong resistance level while 11,550 may act as strong support levels”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5,850 and also around 5,830, with stop loss at 5,780 targeting 5,900-5,920 levels. Alternatively trade short if Nifty fails to surpass 5,920 targeting lower supports”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): Nifty today managed to close near to the previous close on volatile grounds ahead of the April expiry. Markets are expected to be in a range between 5,764 and 5,915 levels and a break above or below these levels will bring more activity”.
GEPL CAPITAL: The level of 5950 is very crucial for Nifty on higher side and fresh uptrend may be seen only after crossing this level. Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 5950-5800 for 2 trading sessions ahead of April Contract expiry”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): ”... ‘so far the market still has a stiff resistance in the upper regions of 5971’ and the market unfolded weak and traded flat… technically nothing has changed in the last few days and the market is expected to be volatile and trend less. The support for the Nifty is at 5800 and resistance at 5971. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 19450 and resistance at 19713”.
ANGEL BROKING (Mileen Vasudeo):Markets opened on a flat note traded with negative bias in the first half of the session but recovered the losses in the later half, to close marginally in red. On the daily chart, we are observing that prices tested the 20day-SMA and sharply rebounded to close higher. This suggests high probability of continuation of the up move. On the upside, if indices trade above 19,650/5,900 levels then it is likely to test the prior swing high of 19,811/5,944 or even extend their gains to 19,990/6,000 levels in couple of trading session. On the downside, indices have support at 19,430-19,306/5,830-5,791 levels”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): The market remains nervous after top companies like Infosys, Reliance Industries and Axis Bank disappointed with their earnings. Worries about high inflation and its impact on monetary policy are still casting a shadow over the markets. Lack of governance and meaningful reforms are among the other pressure points. Globally too, there are quite a few headwinds such as the sovereign debt issues, geopolitical stress, high commodity prices and rising inflation. One has to be a bit cautious in the near term as the outlook is murky and things have turned volatile”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:Technically, Nifty has been facing crucial resistance in the band of 5945-5970 for last few days. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5970, an upward rally might take it to 6050 and then 6180 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 5690 would be treated as the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may take support at 5530. Traders are advised to maintain a stop loss at 5690 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5840 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5915. If Nifty breaks 5840, it may further go down to 5805 and then 5760. However, if it is able to sustain above 5915, the level of 5945–5970 would become the next target”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra):Nifty made hammer candlestick pattern, which shows that Nifty is showing volatility for few days. Until, Nifty manages to decisively sustain above 5950 or below 5800 levels, volatility may be continuing. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 5,870. If Nifty shows strength above 5,870 levels, then rally to 5,900/5,950/6,000 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,870 levels then profit booking till 5,835/5,780/5,725 may also be seen”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): The critical  range  for upside  is at 5,895 and on crossing  this mark, on  the upside the Nifty may face resistance at 5,918. Above this level, we may see some momentum for the market wherein the major resistance for the  day is at 5,940. However  the  range  bound  trading may  continue below  the Critical  level wherein  the  index may get support at 5,860. Any fall below this may show some overall weakness in the market and the benchmark can drift down towards the lower support at 5,835”.
MANSUKH BROKING HOUSE: Spot index rallied and touched the crucial level of 5,872 where we expect  a major resistance zone (5945-5960). At current juncture we expect the same scenario in the upcoming sessions though possibility of profit booking around 5,945-60 couldn’t be ruled out. Any closing above this level with substantial volumes for at least 2 consecutive days may generate another 2-3% return and we might see 6,070-6,080  in  the current series. On the flip side any negative outcome from global side particularly from Middle East Asia may dampens the current euphoria. Moreover  after  a  strong  run  from  5,376  to  5,944, technical  indicators  also  shown  some over bought  conditions  in near  term. Therefore possibility of minor retracement near to 5,550-5,570 could be on higher side however any correction should be used to create fresh long positions”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5780-5800 level, the level (5800) which consists of the second highest OI (i.e. 70.54 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5920-5940 level, the level (5900) which consists of the second highest in OI (i.e. 80.91 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”. 
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 19,493/5,851 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,679–19,812/ 5,911–5,953 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 19,493/5,851 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,359–19,174/5,809–5,749 levels”.

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