"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR FRIDAY (08.04.2011)"

FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 220.59 crore (prov. cash market fig).

Nifty closed at 5,885.70, down by 6.05 points or 0.10 percent over the previous day closing of 5,891.75, after witnessing a low of 5,866.25 and a high of 5,906.10. Sensex closed at 19,591.18, down by 21.02 points or 0.11 percent over the previous day closing of 19,612.20. It touched an intraday low of 19,537.02 and high of 19,665.09.

The market’s breadth was positive. Out of 3,032 stocks traded, 1,911 stocks advanced, 1,020 stocks declined and 101 stocks remained unchanged.

India’s Food Inflation fell to 9.18 percent for the week ended March 26, 2011, the lowest level in almost four months.

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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES: 

SKP SECURITIES: “Nifty future may face resistance at 6000-6100 and take Support at 5880-5770”. 

ASK INVESTMENT (Sameer Kamdar): “This is a one-sided rally, and I don’t see too much of huge upside going forward from here. Not comfortable in buying any more at these current prices. I don’t think one can stand against the flow of money and actually bet against the market but fundamentally we must also realize that you are in market where the oil prices are significantly high, inflation continues to be higher and nothing seems to have really changed for the past 10-15 days, except for the fact that possibly the FII appetite is back. So they have made their 10-20% in the west this year and now are hungry for more growth. So they bought the market from the lower levels. I wouldn’t be very comfortable putting in new money at these prices. There is no reason to repent even if one has missed the rally”. 

KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “In the short-term, it is likely that the markets may take a breather after strong rally. But if the momentum in FII flow remains strong, then we may even see higher levels in the coming week. In all probability, we expect the action to shift to mid and small cap companies that have been severely de-rated in the past few months. We continue to maintain favourable view on IT, media and banking. We also remain positive on a longer term over Cap Goods and Infrastructure”. 

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty exhibited fourth day of consolidation and closed after moderate cuts, its second negative closing in last twelve session. Owing to good buying and positive sentiments, positive momentum in midcap & smallcap continued, but owing to higher valuations profit booking hit the large-caps. Today, Nifty witnessed further deterioration in positive push and again closed the day below 5900. This may spur cautious sentiments among the buyers. Today, despite initial sluggishness, bulls finally outnumbered bears in broader indices, while Nifty maintained its closing above the sentimental levels of 9, 14, 50 & 100 day’s SMA 5830, 5707, 5518 & 5714. These levels may act as new supports, in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX improved a little and recorded at 20.32%, indicating modest volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 68.58 levels and MACD was above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may witness some consolidation but positive movement in coming sessions is more likely”. 

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “As the Nifty was in a small range in between i.e. 5,906-5,866 with the low volume and closed at 5,885 with the breaking of the lower band of the previous day which was 5,668 suggesting us that the bulls are getting exhausted or they will re-enter after the Nifty crosses the level of 5,951 categorically. In the next session, the range of Nifty may be 5,930-5,855 with the resistance of 5,951/5,972 on the upper band and 5,801/5,752 may be the support levels on the downside. Investors were being advised for the last 3 trading session consecutively to lighten their long position with the opinion of that the bulls are getting tired and it is happening. In Nifty short position can be initiated at every rise with the stop loss of above 5,951 on the spot basis. In the next session, Bank nifty is expected to trade in the range 11,580-11,861. Also, 11,960 and 12,060 might be strong resistance level for Bank Nifty. 11,430 might act as another support level for Bank Nifty”. 

KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty from current levels else from 5880 with stop loss placed above 5850 targeting 5930 and 5950 levels”. 

PINC RESEARCH: “Short term technical indicators have reached over bought zone and suggest that this up move now seems stretched. So a breather for this trend which started from around 5350 could be on the cards. Nifty again made an attempt above 5900 in today’s trade but selling pressure ensured that the benchmark closes below 5900. The last few days Nifty movement hints of a distributive pattern in the offing. A decisive move below 5800 can disturb this uptrend in the short term. Till 5800 level gets breached on the downside we would prefer to have a positive bias on the market”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “..... ‘Technically the trend is still intact up but 5956 is also a very stiff resistance to deal and a good place to book profits’ the market unfolded as expected and remained sluggish to close flat… technically I would say that 5956 and max 5971 seems to be a strong resistance to deal with and the market could exhaust on its way up for the week...  The support for the Nifty is at 5860 and resistance at 5956-5971-6020. BSE Sensex (19591) the crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 19560 and resistance at 19842-19991-20062”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Globally, crude oil remains a source of trepidation amid relentless political turbulence in the so-called MENA region. All of a sudden, world markets are grappling with increasing talk of stimulus exits by central banks in Europe, UK and the US. Rates are already being jacked up in emerging markets. Whether the steady flow of overseas capital stays the course or tapers off will have a bearing on the sentiment. Though FY11 earnings have pretty much been factored in, investors will be all ears to what India Inc. honchos say about FY12”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Nifty traded in the range of 5906 and 5866. The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been facing a stiff resistance in the band of 5950 and 5980 for last few days. Now we expect Nifty to move in the range of 5700 and 5980 in the extreme short term. If it breaks 5700, it may come down to 5610 and then 5530. However a breach of 5980 would open the gate for 6100. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5855 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5920. If Nifty breaks 5855, it may further go down to 5810 and then 5770. However, if it is able to sustain above 5920, the level of 5950–5980 would become the next target”. 
BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra): “Nifty is trading in 5,825-5,950 range for 4 trading days. Until, Nifty manages to breakout above 5,950 or below 5,825 levels, Volatility may be seen in this range. Below 5,825 levels a fall till 5,700 may be seen. On the other hand, if Nifty manages to sustain above 5,950 levels then rally till 6,050-6,100 may also be seen. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is 5,890. If Nifty shows strength above 5,890 level, then rally to 5,950/6,000/6,050 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,890 levels then profit booking till 5,850/5,800/5,750 may also be seen”. 

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For today’s trade market likely to trade in the range between 5,910-5,970 in the upper side and 5,870-5,810 in the lower side”.
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