"NIFTY OUTLOOK & INTRADAY STOCK ALERTS"

"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 08.04.2013 TO 14.04.2013"

The 30-share benchmark index, Sensex fell sharply by 385.54 points, or 2.05%, to 18,450.23 in the week ended Apr. 05, 2013. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty declined 129.30 points, or 2.28%, to 5,553.25 in the same period.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty drifting down further, traders will need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the previous intermediate lows of 5548 in the coming week. Being strong supports, they are crucial levels to watch as a close below it could lead to an extended correction and possibly a testing of the 5448-5215 levels in the coming weeks”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “Focus of the markets would now be on the upcoming earnings season, government policy moves in the budget session and global developments (Political uncertainty in Italy and monetary stimulus by Japan). Reversing the deceleration in the industrial and infrastructure investment remains a focus area for the Government”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in FMCG, IT, Pharma if the Nifty sustains above 5600 levels in the coming week. Short positions can be accumulated in Automobiles, Banking, Capital Goods, Cements, Consumer Durables, Energy and Metals if the Nifty slips below 5550 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5450-5650 levels for the next week”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Nifty has breached its major support of 5630. We expect selling pressure to continue towards 5400. On upsides, the Nifty is not expected to sustain at higher levels. Even on any short covering, it is likely to face stiff resistance at 5740 where FIIs had created major shorts. The banking index has immediate resistance at 11200. Selling pressure among banking heavyweights may intensify if the Bank Nifty remains below these levels. On the lower side, 10500-10600 is expected to remain a major support”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5535-5401 and the resistance to the up-move at 5620”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Indices are now approaching the next support level at the weekly '89-EMA' placed around 18200/5500 level. The momentum oscillators on the daily charts are extremely oversold and the possibility of a bounce thus cannot be ruled out. However, one must remember that to time the bounce will be difficult; traders looking to initiating long positions should wait for the indices to cross the Friday's high of 18525/5577. Only a sustainable move beyond this level may push markets higher to test the next resistance levels placed at 18727-18960/5645-5720. On the other hand the 'Lower Top - Lower Bottom' formation on the weekly chart is still intact and the momentum on the down side is quite strong. The charts of global markets too appear weak and may add on to the prevailing negative sentiment. A fall below 18200/5500 may reinforce selling pressure in the market. In this scenario, we may witness a continuation of the concluded week's pessimism, possibly leading indices to slide towards 17976/5441 levels, or even further down. We advise traders to stay light on the positions and follow strict stop losses. Initiating fresh short positions on the index at current levels is not recommended as the risk-reward ratio is not favourable and may incur losses”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “A combination of domestic and overseas headwinds continues to play havoc with the markets sentiment. Upcoming, Q4 results season could keep investors on the sidelines. On Friday, Infosys will announce its quarterly and yearly numbers. Investors will hope it can spring a surprise last quarter. The guidance will be closely tracked. A wait and watch approach may seem prudent to tide over the current turbulence”.  

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5500 and the resistance is 5600. If Nifty breaks 5500, it may further go down 5440 and then 5400. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5600, the level of 5650-5720 would become the next target”.

EASTERN FINANCIERS LTD.: “After a week that saw blood-bath on Dalal Street, markets are likely to trade within a tight range as it enters an eventful week. Market movement from here on would be predominantly decided by the fourth quarter earnings of Corporate that would start trickling in from next week”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5750-5800 in the upper side and 5400-5350 in the lower side”.

R K GLOBAL: “The Indian economy is facing a temporary downturn, and average rates of economic growth above 8% are possible in the medium term. There could be some weakness, given that there has been political uncertainty for quite some time, there is a possibility of high volatility to persist”.

"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 01.04.2013 TO 07.04.2013"

The 30-share benchmark index, Sensex climbed 100.17 points, or 0.53%, to 18,835.77 in the week ended Mar. 28, 2013. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty rose 31.2 points, or 0.55%, to 5,682.55 in the same period.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty bouncing back smartly for the second consecutive session on the back of derivative expiry, the bulls seem to be making a come back. Further upsides are likely if the Nifty can cross the immediate resistances of 5719 early next week. Downside supports to watch for a resumption of weakness are at 5633”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing selling pressure for consecutive 2 weeks, Nifty made hammer candlestick pattern on weekly charts, which shows that bulls are trying to enter from lower levels. Buying interest may be continuing above 5720 levels else profit booking may be seen. Traders may take delivery based positions in good stocks, if Nifty manages to maintain above 5720 levels. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5720. If Nifty shows strength above 5720 levels then we may see rally till 5770/5820/5870/5950. If Nifty doesn’t maintain above 5720 levels then selling pressure till 5650/5600/5550/5500 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5680-5710	5760	5655
For the Week	Buy	5670-5720	5795-5815	5640

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goyal): “In coming week, 5,700 shall be crucial deciding level in near term, and index is likely to witness further buying above this level. Above 5,700, likely target is 5,750-5,800, while below 5,650, likely support is 5,600-5,550”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “After several days, it managed to close above the previous high of 5655 and reversed the losing streak of more than a week.  It may now retrace some of its losses and come up to 5750 and beyond that 5800 is a valid possibility. On the downside the range of 5600 to 5550 would continue to serve as an important support for Nifty. In the immediate term there is a minor resistance placed at 5712 for Nifty. Once it manages to sustain above 5712 the above mentioned range of 5750 to 5800 is possible”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in Consumer Durables, FMCG, IT, Metals and Pharma if the Nifty sustains above 5700 levels in the coming week. Short positions can be accumulated in Automobiles, Banking, Capital Goods, Cements and Energy if the Nifty slips below 5650 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5550-5750 levels for the next week”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Markets might continue to be volatile until comfort emerges on domestic political stability and the Cyprus problem to the satisfaction of investors. Valuations have started becoming reasonable after a sizeable correction in the private financials and auto space. The telecom space looks attractive with policy overhang reducing and recent price hikes. Volatility should be used to buy quality stocks in consumer, pharma and IT on decline”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Nifty held the stated support of 5600 and closed the month almost flat. Going ahead in the April series, major support still lies at 5600. However, the cautious approach should continue till the Nifty does not close above 5800. Only a close above 5800 may trigger closure of short positions. The banking index closed below its crucial resistance of 11500. We expect selling pressure to continue in the index till it does not sustain above these levels. On downsides, noticeable option base at 11000 Put strikes is expected to extend support”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Nifty below 5800 came under bear grip and panic was noticed especially in mid-cap stocks. Hereon Nifty is likely to find support at 5550 levels. As the structure of market is getting weaker, the strategy will be shifted to Sell on bounce”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The 'Downward Sloping Trend Line' and '200-day SMA' provided decent support to our benchmark indices. Despite a couple of decent attempts, the bears were unsuccessful in violating the strong support level of 18525/5600. In fact, indices managed to bounce sharply during the last hour of the week to register a weekly close marginally in the positive territory. We are now observing that the daily 'RSI' and 'Stochastic' oscillators have signalled a positive crossover. Hence, a move beyond Thursday's high of 18883/5693 may push indices higher to test next resistance levels of 19094-19210/5766-5820. On the flipside, we maintain our view that only a sustainable move below 18525/5600 would justify a bear case scenario and may drag indices lower to test 18255-17800/5548-5441 levels”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Technically, the Nifty found support at the 38.20% retracement level for entire rally since May 2012 and 200-DMA placed at 5,624. We expect, the Nifty to continue with the upward momentum in the coming days. A close above 5,720 would further accelerate the bullish stances”.  

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5600 and the resistance is 5720. If Nifty breaks 5600, it may further go down 5540 and then 5450. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5720, the level of 5750-5830 would become the next target”.

EASTERN FINANCIERS LTD.: “After a week of high volatility owing to political drama threatening early polls and continued global uncertainties, markets are expected to trade on a cautious note with a negative bias in the first trading week of the new financial year. Next week will see important economic as well as Sectoral data coming out and would be the chief determinant of the markets immediate trajectory, apart from the developments in the global economy as well as the domestic political scenario”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5850-5900 in the upper side and 5550-5400 in the lower side”.

R K GLOBAL: “The last session of fiscal 2013, which coincided with the expiry of March series, made a surprise U-turn towards the end of the truncated week. Extremely poor global cues had a cascading effect on the indices. With the beginning of April series next week we could see a short term recovery with a negative bias. On the sector front Auto stocks could remain subdued for a major part of the April series”.

"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 25.03.2013 TO 31.03.2013"

The 30-share index, Sensex plunged 691.96 points or 3.56% over previous week to 18,735.6. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty descended 221.25 points, or 3.77%, to 5,651.35.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

DANI SECURITIES: “The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near-month April 2012 series to May 2012 series”.

HDFC SECURITIES: “After a sharp correction over the last few trading sessions, the Indian markets could register a small relief rally in the next week. However, it is likely to face stiff resistance at higher levels in the absence of any positive news domestically and uncertainty in the global markets. Probable range for Sensex during the next week is expected to be 18500-19200. Our downside targets are now at 5550. Any pullback rallies could find resistance at 5691”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “As we enter April, the markets would look forward to the earnings season, government commitment on maintaining the reforms momentum and global cues. With valuation turning reasonable, investors should opt for buying quality stocks with credible management and sound corporate governance”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty is moving towards oversold zone and a late rush may not be ruled out. Coming week the outlook remains very cautious and much would depend on the rollover to the next series (April). Beside these year end activities may also have significant bearing on our market”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed selling pressure for 2nd consecutive week. Nifty made long black candlestick on weekly charts. Bears are having control at the moment. Nifty has 200 dma at near 5625 levels. If Nifty holds 5625 levels then recovery may be seen else selling pressure may be continuing. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5650. If Nifty shows strength above 5650 levels then we may see rally till 5700/5750/5820/5870. If Nifty doesn’t maintain above 5650 levels then selling pressure till

5600/5550/5500/5460 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5640-5660	5740	5610
For the Week	Buy	5620-5670	5775	5580

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty has now breached the support of 5660 marginally. Unless it immediately reverses its losing streak there is a further risk of decline till 5600 and below that 5550 is a possibility. It now has initial resistance placed at 5710 and till the time it trades below this level the bearishness would continue. In the event of a move above 5710 it may further come up till 5780-5800 levels and in case the decline continues and it breaches the level of 5600 then it may come down further till 5550. The trend remains bearish till the time Nifty trades below 5710”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in FMCG, Pharma and IT if the Nifty sustains above 5600 levels in the coming week. Short positions can be accumulated in Realty, Automobiles, Capital Goods, and Banking if the Nifty slips below 5600 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5500-5800 levels for the next week, with selling pressure expected on every rise towards 5750 levels”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Going ahead, the markets might continue to be volatile. However, most of the domestic concerns seem to be priced in. On the political front, the BJP has stated that it wouldn’t move a no-confidence motion. With the Parliament session now over, the government has a 3 month window to give a spurt to investment through fast clearances for large infrastructure projects and resolving power and oil/gas sector issues. Volatility should be used to buy quality stocks in consumer, pharma and IT on declines”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Due to continuous writing seen among OTM Call strikes, we expect 5800 to remain the key resistance on the higher side. At the same time, immediate and crucial support for the Nifty is placed at 5600, below which selling pressure may extend sharply towards 5450-5500. The banking index has a major hurdle at 11500 where Call strike added noteworthy open interest during the week. A move above these levels may trigger a round of short covering. On downsides, the Put base at the 11000 strike is expected to act as immediate support”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The index witnessed a breakdown from levels of 5800 with rise in volatility index indicating weakness and fear in the market sentiments. The range of 5800-5500 will remain crucial in the near term. The Nifty has sustained below the crucial resistance of 5700. Short term indicators are indicating downward momentum to continue for the next support around 5550 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5650-5600 and the resistance to the up-move at 5750-5800”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Closing below the psychological level of 5700 in Nifty after nearly four 5700 months, has now confirmed a 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' formation for the first time after January 14, 2011 and indicates a probability of intermediate downtrend in the market. On the other hand, looking at the daily chart, it is clearly seen that indices are precisely trading at the 'Downward Sloping Trend Line' support level. This trend line is drawn by joining two significant lows of 19149/5823 (low of 19149/5823 December 18, 2012) and 18760/5663 (low of March 04, 2013). In addition, the '200-day SMA' is also placed around 18525/5620 level (the 200-day SMA level of Nifty precisely coincides with the trend line support; whereas in Sensex it is marginally lower). Considering these contra evidences, we are of the opinion that if indices close below 18525/5600 then we may witness continuation of the downtrend in coming weeks. In such a scenario, indices may test 18255-17800/5548-5441 levels. We specifically would advise traders not to initiate fresh short positions for this down leg. On the flipside, the daily chart now depicts a 'Spinning Top' Japanese candlestick pattern. The said pattern will be confirmed once indices close above Friday's high of 18860/5692. This is also supported by the extreme oversold condition of daily 'Stochastic' momentum oscillator. Hence, in such a scenario, indices may bounce towards 19083-19240/5758-5820 levels. The coming week is likely to trade with high volatility on account of March month derivative expiry. Moreover, the weekly closing can be very crucial as it will also provide a closing for the Quarterly charts”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Markets succumbed to selling pressure amidst uncertainty on the political front and renewed concerns in the euro zone which led to close in Nifty below 5,700. With next week being a truncated one on account of Holi and Good Friday and the F&O expiry on Thursday, it is advised to remain cautious. However, one cannot ignore the importance of 200DMA which may act as a stiff resistance for the Nifty”.  

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5600 and the resistance is 5720. If Nifty breaks 5600, it may further go down 5540 and then 5450. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5720, the level of 5750-5830 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5850-5900 in the upper side and 5550-5400 in the lower side”.

SHAREKHAN:  “Nifty is expected to head lower till 5,600 with support around 5,620 and resistance around 5,715. the short-term bias for Nifty would remain negative for a target of 5,550 with reversal around 5,810”.

"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 18.03.2013 TO 24.03.2013"

The 30-share index, Sensex declined 255.67 points or 1.30% over previous week to 19,427.56. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dipped 73.10 points, or 1.23%, to 5,872.60.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty sliding lower after the bounce back seen on Monday, it seems markets are not willing to move up in a hurry. Markets could therefore consolidate in the coming week between the 5790-5950 levels. The bears could gain an upper hand if the 5790 supports are broken”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “We expect the RBI to cut interest rates by about 25bps in its March 19 policy meeting. Further, interest rate cuts will depend on the RBI's assessment of the achievability of the fiscal deficit target and the fiscal reforms which the Government may undertake, going ahead. Initiatives in the core sectors will provide a leg-up to the infrastructure investments and assist growth”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Coming week the outlook remains very cautious and much would depend on the outcome of policy decision by RBI that could lead to any sustainable recovery”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing strength in previous week, Nifty showed profit booking. Sentiment in coming week may depend upon RBI monetary policy and Nifty may decide direction accordingly. Selling pressure may be continuing below 5850 levels else recovery may be seen. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5850. If Nifty shows strength above 5850 levels then we may see rally till 5920/5975/6025/6075. If Nifty doesn’t maintain above 5850 levels then selling pressure till 5790/5725/5650/5600 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	5910-5930	5865	5950
For the Week	Sell	5960-6000	5880-5840	6030

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goyal): “Nifty is still near 5,875 level, which is positive in near term. Any positive news in the coming week can lead to further recovery. RBI’s monetary policy on 19th March is eyed for the coming week, while global cues shall be tracked too. Nifty has stiff resistance at 5,900-5,950 level and can face selling pressure on upsides. However, once this level is crossed decisively, market trend will be positive in near term”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Due to substantial options base present at 5700 and 5800 Put strikes, we expect 5800 to act as immediate support. Below these levels, closure of positions may lead further declines towards previous lows of 5670. On the higher side, intermediate resistance is expected at 6000 where the highest Call base is placed since the starting of the series. The banking index has immediate resistance at 12200 while support may be witnessed at 11500. A move above 12200 may stretch the momentum towards 12500”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Overall market is waiting for new triggers from coming RBI policy meet scheduled on 19th March, 2013. Nifty has a strong buying support at 5800 levels, which is very crucial for bulls. On the index options front, lot of option selling was seen in the 5700-strike put option, which had more than 1 Crore shares in the open interest. Among the call options, the highest open interest continued at the 6000 strike, with aggregate open interest of 78 lakhs shares. For coming week, Nifty is expected to remain in the range of 5800-6000 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5835-5790 and the resistance to the up-move at 5960”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Only a sustainable move beyond this week's high of 19755/5971 would confirm the above mentioned pattern as well as the breakout from the probable 'Inverse Head and Shoulder' pattern. In such a scenario, we may witness strong buying interest among market participants. Indices may then resultantly rally towards 19768-19865/5991-6025 or even re-test the recent swing high of 20204/6112. Conversely, the week's low of 19179/5791 poses as a key support level in the coming trading sessions. Any sustainable move below this level would trigger immense pessimism in the market and indices may re-test recent swing lows of 18931-18760/5712-5663”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5840 and the resistance is 5910. If Nifty breaks 5840, it may further go down 5800 and then 5750. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5910, the level of 5980-6050 would become the next target”.

R K GLOBAL: “Early next week, domestic indices are likely to trade in a narrow range on caution ahead of the RBI's mid-quarter policy review on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to lower its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points. A rate cut could spark gains after recent volatility in shares following the 2013/14 budget. We expect that 5800 is likely to hold as a support for the index even if the central bank withholds a rate cut. Bank stocks may remain subdued in the wake of the central bank's probe into allegations of private banks HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank indulging in money laundering”.

""WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 11.03.2013 TO 17.03.2013""

The 30-share index, Sensex climbed 764.71 points or 4.04% over previous week to 19,683.23. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty surged 226 points, or 3.95%, to 5,945.70.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty rallying further after closing above the 5850 resistances on Thursday, the bulls seem to be in control. Traders will now need to watch if the Nifty can convincingly take out the next intermediate highs of 5971 early next week. Weakness could emerge if the immediate supports of 5880 are broken”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Coming week the outlook remains very cautious and much would depend on the outcome of policy decision by RBI that could lead to any sustainable recovery”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After 5 down weeks, Nifty closed in green. Nifty made bullish engulfing pattern on weekly charts which shows bulls are having control at the moment. Buying interest may be continuing above 5950 levels else profit booking may be seen. Traders may take delivery based position in good stocks with stoploss levels. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5950. If Nifty shows strength above 5950 levels then we may see rally till 6025/6075/6125/6175. If Nifty doesn’t maintain above 5950 levels then selling pressure till 5890/5825/5750/5700 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	5980-5990	5020	6015
For the Week	Sell	6000-6040	5930-5890	6070

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty staged a massive comeback in the last week as it recovered from near the support of its 200 Day EMA. It has managed to give a convincing close above the 5850 mark which was the stop loss for recommended bearish positions. In doing so it has now entered neutral territory. In the coming days if it manages to take support near 5800 to 5850 range and rallies back higher beyond the now important resistance of 5970 then it may scale higher till the previous high of 6111. However failure to take the resistance level of 5970 and a sharp decline below 5800 would indicate that it may yet again slip into bearish territory. The price action of next few days would provide the cues to further moves.  Thus important levels to watch out for in the coming days are 5970 on the upside and 5800 as a support”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in Banking, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, Energy, Metals, Realty and Utilities if the Nifty sustains above 5930 levels. Short positions can be accumulated in Auto, Cement and IT if the Nifty slips below 5930 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5850-6100 levels for the next week”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “We recommend investors to accumulate quality blue chip stocks with medium to long term perspective, as India continues to remain an attractive equity investment destination. We recommend investors to focus on rate-sensitive sectors like banking, auto etc. and on quality stocks in reform led sectors like oil and gas sector and media. At the same time, investors should look at an opportune time to accumulate stocks in defensive sectors like FMCG, IT and Pharma sectors”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has major support placed at 5820. On the higher side, intermediate resistance is expected at 6040 above which the Nifty may try to test 6100. The banking index has immediate resistance at 12500 while support may be witnessed at 12050. A move below 12050 may stretch the downward momentum towards its 11800”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Indices have precisely taken a support at the 'Downward Sloping Trend Line'. This bullish pattern is now supported by the positive crossover in the daily 'ADX (14)' indicator and the weekly 'Stochastic' oscillator. Also, last week we had mentioned that the weekly 'RSI' momentum oscillator has moved below the 50 mark. Nevertheless, this week it has managed to jump back convincingly to close above the 58 level. This indicates possibility of a further upside move if indices sustain above 19706/5953. In this scenario, the markets may rally towards 19768-19865/5991-6025 or even re-test the recent swing high of 20204/6112. On the flipside, the '89-day EMA' and the '20-day EMA' would now provide decent support to the markets. These are placed at 19250/5830 and 19348/5850 respectively. A sustainable move below 19195/5795 would once again trigger pessimism in the market”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Recent weak trend in WPI has been followed by a dismal Q3 FY13 GDP growth of 4.5% (v/s 5.3% in Q2 FY13). IIP was negative for second consecutive month; another indication of weakening growth. Increase in average LAF borrowing from ` 922 billion in Jan '13 to ` 1,098 billion in Feb '13 indicates liquidity tightening in the system. These factors along with a need to revive investment cycle are likely to persuade RBI to consider growth over inflation. Thereby, we expect repo-rate cut of 25 bps in the forthcoming monetary policy review”.

RELIGARE SECURITIES: “Technically, Nifty has formed bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart which indicates positive bias to continue in the near future. Considering the pace of inclination, we might see more of stock specific move in the coming days while index may witness muted performance with overall positive bias. Going ahead, 6,020-6,100 will be crucial resistance on the higher side while 5,800-5,870 will provide the need support in case of any decline”.