"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 25.03.2013 TO 31.03.2013"

The 30-share index, Sensex plunged 691.96 points or 3.56% over previous week to 18,735.6. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty descended 221.25 points, or 3.77%, to 5,651.35.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

DANI SECURITIES: “The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near-month April 2012 series to May 2012 series”.

HDFC SECURITIES: “After a sharp correction over the last few trading sessions, the Indian markets could register a small relief rally in the next week. However, it is likely to face stiff resistance at higher levels in the absence of any positive news domestically and uncertainty in the global markets. Probable range for Sensex during the next week is expected to be 18500-19200. Our downside targets are now at 5550. Any pullback rallies could find resistance at 5691”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “As we enter April, the markets would look forward to the earnings season, government commitment on maintaining the reforms momentum and global cues. With valuation turning reasonable, investors should opt for buying quality stocks with credible management and sound corporate governance”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty is moving towards oversold zone and a late rush may not be ruled out. Coming week the outlook remains very cautious and much would depend on the rollover to the next series (April). Beside these year end activities may also have significant bearing on our market”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed selling pressure for 2nd consecutive week. Nifty made long black candlestick on weekly charts. Bears are having control at the moment. Nifty has 200 dma at near 5625 levels. If Nifty holds 5625 levels then recovery may be seen else selling pressure may be continuing. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5650. If Nifty shows strength above 5650 levels then we may see rally till 5700/5750/5820/5870. If Nifty doesn’t maintain above 5650 levels then selling pressure till

5600/5550/5500/5460 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5640-5660	5740	5610
For the Week	Buy	5620-5670	5775	5580

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty has now breached the support of 5660 marginally. Unless it immediately reverses its losing streak there is a further risk of decline till 5600 and below that 5550 is a possibility. It now has initial resistance placed at 5710 and till the time it trades below this level the bearishness would continue. In the event of a move above 5710 it may further come up till 5780-5800 levels and in case the decline continues and it breaches the level of 5600 then it may come down further till 5550. The trend remains bearish till the time Nifty trades below 5710”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in FMCG, Pharma and IT if the Nifty sustains above 5600 levels in the coming week. Short positions can be accumulated in Realty, Automobiles, Capital Goods, and Banking if the Nifty slips below 5600 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5500-5800 levels for the next week, with selling pressure expected on every rise towards 5750 levels”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Going ahead, the markets might continue to be volatile. However, most of the domestic concerns seem to be priced in. On the political front, the BJP has stated that it wouldn’t move a no-confidence motion. With the Parliament session now over, the government has a 3 month window to give a spurt to investment through fast clearances for large infrastructure projects and resolving power and oil/gas sector issues. Volatility should be used to buy quality stocks in consumer, pharma and IT on declines”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “Due to continuous writing seen among OTM Call strikes, we expect 5800 to remain the key resistance on the higher side. At the same time, immediate and crucial support for the Nifty is placed at 5600, below which selling pressure may extend sharply towards 5450-5500. The banking index has a major hurdle at 11500 where Call strike added noteworthy open interest during the week. A move above these levels may trigger a round of short covering. On downsides, the Put base at the 11000 strike is expected to act as immediate support”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The index witnessed a breakdown from levels of 5800 with rise in volatility index indicating weakness and fear in the market sentiments. The range of 5800-5500 will remain crucial in the near term. The Nifty has sustained below the crucial resistance of 5700. Short term indicators are indicating downward momentum to continue for the next support around 5550 levels”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5650-5600 and the resistance to the up-move at 5750-5800”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Closing below the psychological level of 5700 in Nifty after nearly four 5700 months, has now confirmed a 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' formation for the first time after January 14, 2011 and indicates a probability of intermediate downtrend in the market. On the other hand, looking at the daily chart, it is clearly seen that indices are precisely trading at the 'Downward Sloping Trend Line' support level. This trend line is drawn by joining two significant lows of 19149/5823 (low of 19149/5823 December 18, 2012) and 18760/5663 (low of March 04, 2013). In addition, the '200-day SMA' is also placed around 18525/5620 level (the 200-day SMA level of Nifty precisely coincides with the trend line support; whereas in Sensex it is marginally lower). Considering these contra evidences, we are of the opinion that if indices close below 18525/5600 then we may witness continuation of the downtrend in coming weeks. In such a scenario, indices may test 18255-17800/5548-5441 levels. We specifically would advise traders not to initiate fresh short positions for this down leg. On the flipside, the daily chart now depicts a 'Spinning Top' Japanese candlestick pattern. The said pattern will be confirmed once indices close above Friday's high of 18860/5692. This is also supported by the extreme oversold condition of daily 'Stochastic' momentum oscillator. Hence, in such a scenario, indices may bounce towards 19083-19240/5758-5820 levels. The coming week is likely to trade with high volatility on account of March month derivative expiry. Moreover, the weekly closing can be very crucial as it will also provide a closing for the Quarterly charts”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Markets succumbed to selling pressure amidst uncertainty on the political front and renewed concerns in the euro zone which led to close in Nifty below 5,700. With next week being a truncated one on account of Holi and Good Friday and the F&O expiry on Thursday, it is advised to remain cautious. However, one cannot ignore the importance of 200DMA which may act as a stiff resistance for the Nifty”.  

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5600 and the resistance is 5720. If Nifty breaks 5600, it may further go down 5540 and then 5450. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5720, the level of 5750-5830 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5850-5900 in the upper side and 5550-5400 in the lower side”.

SHAREKHAN:  “Nifty is expected to head lower till 5,600 with support around 5,620 and resistance around 5,715. the short-term bias for Nifty would remain negative for a target of 5,550 with reversal around 5,810”.