"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 25.02.2013 TO 03.03.2013"

At the close, the 30-share index, Sensex declined 151.14 points or 0.78% over previous week to 19,317.01. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dropped 37.10 points, or 0.63%, to 5,850.30.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty ending flat, the 5823 lows of the Nifty continue to remain in focus. These are crucial levels to watch as a close below these levels would lead to a larger correction and possibly a testing of the 5600 levels on the Nifty over the next few weeks”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “For the next week, markets would be waiting for the union budget to be presented on Thursday. our advice to investors would be to follow a proper mix between large caps and mid-caps, with higher weightage on large cap companies. Risk to markets would be rise in crude prices and slowdown in foreign fund flows”. 

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Uncertainty will continue to prevail in the coming days as investors prefer to remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget to be presented in the Parliament on 28 February 2013. It’s going to be a make or break budget for the Indian market as expectations would be sky high from the government. Outlook remains very cautious and much would depend on the outcome of policy decision in budget that could lead to any sustainable recovery”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed selling pressure for 4th consecutive week. Nifty Feb Future expiry, Rail Budget and Union Budget events due in coming week and volatility may be continuing. Bears are having control at the moment. Selling Pressure may be continuing below 5850 levels. If Nifty maintains above 5850 levels then recovery may also be seen. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5850. If Nifty shows strength above 5850 levels then we may see rally till 5900/5960/6000/6050. If Nifty doesn’t maintain above 5850 levels then profit booking till 5800/5760/5700/5650 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5820-5840	5880	5800
For the Week	Buy	5800-5840	5900-5940	5770

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goyal): “Nifty is already below its major uptrend line and also struggling to sustain above 5850-5825 support level. Technically, it is showing weakness below 50-EMA level. In coming sessions, 5,825 shall be crucial deciding level in near term, and index is likely to witness further selling below this level. Below 5,825, likely support levels are 5,780-5,730, while above 5880, likely target is 5,925-5975”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty ended the day almost flat at 5850. It is now near the make or break support of 5850, however it appears highly likely that the support may be broken in the next few sessions and Nifty may witness a severe sell off till 5700 and below that 5565 is a possible downside target for Nifty on a positional basis. On the higher side any counter trend bounce would face severe resistance near 5900 and beyond that the level of 5970 appears like a very formidable resistance to cross. We advise short selling on a bounce till 5900 with a stop loss of 5970 for a downside target till 5715 and below that 5565 over the next few weeks.  High caution is advised for Nifty long positions at this juncture”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in Realty, Healthcare, Energy, Power and IT if the Nifty sustains above 5900 levels. Short positions can be accumulated in Banking, Capital Goods, Cement, Metals, and Utilities if the Nifty breaches 5800 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5800-6000 levels for the next week. However, a breakthrough of this range would lead to high volatility in the market”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Investors will keep a vigil on the Union Budget…..a non–expansionary and progressive budget, with contained fiscal deficit and elements to take the economy back on the accelerated growth path. This could lead to a rally in March. The correction in the market is an opportunity for the investors to get into the market. We recommend investors to buy quality stocks with focus on rate-sensitive sectors like Financials, Auto, reforms-led sectors like Oil and Gas and Media. With revival in US economy, IT can emerge as an dark horse for FY14”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has immediate and major support placed around 5800-5820. Intensified selling pressure may be seen towards 5700 below these levels. On the higher side, a round of short covering is expected only above 5900. However, volatile movement can be expected due to events like the Union Budget and countdown to the fiscal cliff expected in the coming sessions. The banking index was the major laggard last week and closed near its important support placed at its 100 DMA of 12050. Breach of 12000 may trigger closure of leveraged positions, which may trigger further selling pressure. On the higher side, only a move above 12250 may trigger a round of short covering”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “If the Index slips below the 5820 level, it could gradually slide to 5700 levels. Conversely, a sustained move beyond 5850 levels should see Nifty climbing 6000 levels. Technically, the Index continues to trade below all its short term moving averages, indicating a bearish scenario. On the contrary, sustaining 5850 levels is extremely crucial for a continued uptrend. Nifty basis turned in to discount”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically, the market is still weak and is now at make or break levels and we now head into the budget week with F&O expiry playing us all. The breach of 5835 would be bad for the sentiments while I would say this a very good time for Volatility with strong resistance around 5950 zones. The crucial support for the Nifty is at 5835-5775 and the resistance to the up-move at 5900-5950”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Despite a decent up move in the first half, eventually the week turned out in the favour of the bears. Indices faced tremendous selling pressure near the resistance of the '20-day EMA' placed around 19723/5970. Further, 19723/5970 a strong fall in Thursday's session has resulted in a breakdown from the 'Upward Sloping Trend Line' drawn by joining two significant recent swing lows of 19149/5823 (December 18, 2012) and 19381/5853 (February 15, 2013). In Nifty, the prices have marginally traversed the trend line; whereas in Sensex, the prices have convincingly closed below the trend line level. Going forward, 19149/5823 may act as a crucial support for our market. Any sustainable move below this level would certainly trigger immense pessimism in the market. In this scenario, indices may slide towards 18973-18600/5777-5650 levels. On the upside, the weekly high of 19742/5971 would act as a resistance in the coming trading sessions. Only a move beyond this level may nullify the impact of negative technical evidences. In this case, indices may then rally towards 19768-19865/5991-6025 levels. The coming week is likely to trade with high volatility on account of February month derivative expiry and announcement of Union Budget. Thus, we advise traders to trade with strict stop losses”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5820 and the resistance is 5930. If Nifty breaks 5820, it may further go down 5800 and then 5720. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5930, the level of 5980-6010 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “With the Nifty ending flat, the 5823 lows of the Nifty continue to remain in focus. These are crucial levels to watch as a close below these levels would lead to a larger correction and possibly a testing of the 5650 levels on the Nifty. Next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5920-6000 in the upper side and 5780-5700 in the lower side”.