"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 14.01.2013 TO 20.01.2013"

The 30-share index, Sensex dropped 120.44 points or 0.61% over previous week to 19,663.64. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty fell sharply 64.85 points, or 1.08%, to 5951.3.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “We expect some more consolidation in the Indian markets with a mild negative bias. The Sensex is likely to trade in a range of 19200-19800 during next week”.

KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “Post the IIP numbers, the inflation data is awaited.  Infosys kicked off the results season on a good note and one can expect healthy numbers from most other large IT companies as well. Given the weakening economic backdrop, expectations from earnings are muted. However, market may reward companies that are able to post decent profits in these challenging times. Towards the end of the month, there is RBI monetary policy meet followed by the Union Budget, which would be presented in February”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Bears had total control during the week. Nifty made black morubozu candlestick on weekly charts, which shows that bears are having control at the moment. Selling pressure may be continuing below 5950 levels. On the other hand, If Nifty holds 5950 levels then recovery may be seen. On upside, Nifty has resistance at 6050 levels. On downside, Nifty has support at 5840 levels. For trading during the coming session, trend deciding level is 5950.  If Nifty shows strength above 5950 levels then we may see rally till 6050/6125/6175. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5950 levels then profit booking till 5840/5800/5740 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5950-5970	6005	5930
For the Week	Buy	5900-5940	6000-6050	5880

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goyal): “5,950 shall be the deciding level for market trend. If Nifty goes below 5,950, further selling upto 5,900-5,850 is likely. Recovery may be seen only above 5,985 levels on the upsides. Volatility is likely to continue and market may also witness profit-booking on rallies. The level of 6,050-6,100 is a strong resistance zone as Nifty has seen steep fall from these levels in the past. And hence, some selling pressure may be seen from these levels. Financial results for third quarter and global cues shall remain in focus in coming sessions”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “From past 9 trading sessions, a sideways movement is seen in Nifty where the range is restricted between 5,935 and 6,045. A breakout above 6,045 or breakdown is expected to trigger sharp move in either direction. Below 5,935, the immediate support for Nifty is placed at 5,880 and next support is at 5,800. On the higher side, now 6,000 is immediate resistance for Nifty and Nifty needs to cross 6,045 levels to continue the uptrend. The intermediate trend of Nifty will remain in upward direction till Nifty is trading above 5,700 marks”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in Auto, Banking, Energy, IT and Metal sectors if markets sustain above 5950 levels. Short positions can be accumulated in Capital Goods, Cement, FMCG, Pharma and Utilities if the Nifty breaches 5950 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the broad range of 5850-6050 levels for next week”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Next week, there would be stock specific action based on results. Bajaj Auto, HDFC Bank, TCS, Axis Bank, HCL Tech, ITC and Yes Bank are among the major companies coming out with results. We advise investors to stay invested and accumulate quality stocks on correction. Stocks with institutional under-ownership are likely to perform in the near term. Mid-caps are likely to outperform large-caps as there is a lot of valuation catch-up to do”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has major support placed at 5870-5900. On the higher side, immediate resistance lies around 6020, breach of which may lead Nifty towards 6100. Bank Nifty has major support placed at 12500/12300. On the higher side, 12800 remains an immediate resistance. Breach of this may lead the index to move towards 13200”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Hereafter, the range of 6000-5800 will remain crucial for current expiry and the move is expected to remain sideways. If Nifty slips below the 5900 mark, it could slide to 5800 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the other hand, the index may face stiff resistance at 6000-6050 levels”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Despite positive opening on most of the trading sessions, indices traded with negative bias and corrected gradually during the week. At present, we are observing that indices are now approaching '20-Day EMA', which is considered as a decent support level. However, negative placement of 'RSI-Smoothened' and '3 & 8 EMA' on the daily chart amidst a corrective chart structure in many index heavyweights indicates at a possibility of a near term correction in the market. In addition, 'Negative Divergence' in the daily 'RSI' momentum oscillator is still intact. Hence, in the coming week, if our benchmark indices manage to sustain below the '20-day EMA', then we can expect a corrective move towards their next support levels of 19406-19221/5897-5842. Conversely, a sustainable move beyond this week's high of 19857/6042 would certainly nullify all possibilities of a short term correction. In this scenario, indices may resume to their larger degree bullish trend and we may then expect an extended up move towards 19950-20100/6070-6125. However, we reiterate that traders should consider reducing long positions and partial profit booking in individual large cap counters near to the 19950-20100/6070-6125 mark on the benchmark indices”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Inflation will be the key event next week, along with the slew of earnings. The widely tracked WPI is projected to be ~7.37%. Watch out for the core inflation reading, a measure closely followed by the RBI”.  

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5900 and the resistance is 6050. If Nifty breaks 5900, it may further go down 5870 and then 5820. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 6050, the level of 6120-6180 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 6100-6150 in the upper side and 5900-5800 in the lower side”.

SHAREKHAN:  “Nifty is now expected to head lower till 5900 with resistance around 5977 in the short term. The key support in the immediate run will be around 5900 and resistance will be at 5977. The Nifty’s short-term bias has changed to negative for a target of 5850. The medium-term outlook remains positive with reversal at 5823, as the index has started forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly chart. It has also formed a bullish island with support around 5649”.