"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THE WEEK 15.10.2012 TO 21.10.2012"

The 30-share index, Sensex declined 263.28 points, or 1.39% over previous week to 18,675.18. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty dropped 70.90 points, or 1.23%, to 5,676.05.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “We expect the market to trade range-bound between 5600-5850 levels till the earning season and before the winter session of the Indian parliament scheduled to start from early November 2012. Major Supports & Resistances for Nifty is 5640/5575/5520 & 5710/5775/5815”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing strength for 5 consecutive weeks Nifty closed in red. Bears are having control at the moment. Sentiment to a large extent will depend upon Sept Qtr results. Traders should be cautious in volatile environment. Selling pressure may be continuing below 5650 levels. On upside Nifty has resistance at 5800 level. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5650. If Nifty shows strength above 5650 levels then we may see rally till 5720/5800/5860/5940. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5650 levels then profit booking till 5580/5530/5450 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Buy	5660-5670	5725	5630
For the Week	Buy	5640-5670	5735-5755-5790	5605

GEPL CAPITAL: “After a span of 5 weeks, Nifty closed in negative territory on weekly chart suggesting downward correction is in the offing. Nifty is expected to dip below 5630 where next support zone is placed between 5590-5550. Only after surpassing 5750, Nifty will gain its strength and further rally may be seen”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “Long positions can be assumed in IT, FMCG, Banking, Cements, Consumer Durables, Capital Goods and Metals sectors if markets hold 5650 levels. Short positions can be accumulated in Pharma, Realty and Telecom if the Nifty fails to sustain above 5650 levels or below 5600 levels. Overall, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5550-5800 levels for next week”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “The government seems keen to keep the stock markets buoyant to (1) attract foreign fund flows in order to ease the pressure on the rupee and lower inflation, and (2) get better proceeds from disinvestments. With global liquidity being high, India would continue to attract strong FII inflows. Distribution of fund flows from defensives to cyclicals and high beta-sectors is likely to continue. Pockets of high beta stocks and mid-caps have a lot of room to move upwards. There would be stock-specific action based on results performance”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty has major support at 5600, below which it may test its lower support at 5530. On the higher side, 5750 will remain a crucial resistance for the coming week. Sustainability above 5750 may bring fresh momentum towards 5880. With the ongoing earnings season, choppiness cannot be ruled out in the broader index. The Bank Nifty is hovering at its straddle formed at the 11500 strike. From a trading prospective, 11200 is expected to act as strong support in the near term while 10700 would be critical resistance on the higher side”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The sector rotation, which is an indicator of consolidation phase in market, is shifting from high beta banking stock to metal and IT. In Nifty index options, significant option writing has been seen in the 5800 and 5900 call-option strikes with open interest of above 90 lakhs. On the put side 5600 put holds maximum concentration just above 70 lakhs. A low Put-Call ratio of 0.96 indicates more call writing, which suggests that upside is capped to 5800 in current expiry”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Now 5650 has become a strong support and the market could climb to around 5785”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “The weekly chart now depicts a 'Bearish Engulfing' candlestick pattern. This pattern needs a confirmation in the form of a closing below the low of the candle. The negative crossover in the weekly 'Stochastic' oscillator does not bode well in the short term. Hence, we are of the opinion that if indices sustain below last week's low of 18581/5636, then further price erosion can be expected. In this process, the market may slide towards 18416/5586 and 18194/5515, which are 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels of the rise from  17250 to 19138/5216  to 5815, respectively. Aggressive bears can encash the small down move with a strict stop loss above 18886/5729 level and the bulls are advised to stay away until they get any reversal signs. The said pattern will be negated once the indices manage to cross the high of the candle i.e. 19138/5816.  In this case, we expect the indices to move towards 19542-19812/5850-5945 levels”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “One should not get carried away by the recent rally and reforms, as a few economic headwinds are yet to be conquered. The global situation too is far from satisfactory, with the euro-zone leaders continuing their struggle to quell a three-year-old debt crisis. China has witnessed a sharp slowdown while the US too is likely to face problems once the measures to rein in fiscal deficit are in place next year. The uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential election is another near-term overhang that needs to be taken into account”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5610 and the resistance is 5730. If Nifty breaks 5610, it may further go down to 5530 and then 5450. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5730, the level of 5790-5850 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5790-5850 in the upper side and 5500-5450 in the lower side”.

EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES: “We feel that the range entire range of 5,638-5,600 is the crucial pivot for the index. If at all Nifty breaks the support of 20-day MA near 5,638 then the internal trendline (green) drawn connecting the highs of 5,348 and 5,448 is strong enough to support the falling prices. Next minor halt should not be expected before 5,815 levels i.e. the high of October 05”.

R K GLOBAL: “In the week ahead, the market is likely to move sideways for a better part of the coming week. There might not be some smart rallies during the course of the week, as markets will be expected to remain volatile due to more Q2FY’13 results, so a sustained upside looks highly unlikely, given the uncertain near term outlook for the global economy”.