The 30-share index, Sensex gained 42.46 points, or 0.24% to 17,404.2 for the week ended Mar. 30, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty moved up 17.35 points, or 0.33%, to 5,295.55 during the week. BSE Mid-cap dropped 4.54 points, or 0.07% to 6,346.38, while BSE Small-cap rose 3.03 points, or 0.05% to 6,629.38 over the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty moving up sharply and clearing the 5278 resistances, the bulls seem to be making a comeback. Traders will need to watch if the Nifty can move up further and clear the previous short term highs of 5312 to enter into a fresh short term uptrend”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “Going ahead, in the next week, markets may remain range bound but if fuel prices are hiked then it will be positive for oil and marketing companies. Markets would also be looking out for quarterly earnings with would commence from second week of April with IT major Infosys. As far as rupee movement is concerned, liquidity flow from FIIs as well as government borrowing plan would determine the rupee movement. So in the current scenario, we would continue to recommend bottoms up approach to accumulate stocks of companies having ethical management and attractive valuations across sectors like IT, Banking, Media, Logistics, Capital goods and infrastructure”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting a weak session in last session, today, Nifty reversed its approach and displayed a firm session that closed in green zone after good gains. Level wise, closing below the threshold 5200 levels, may support the bears in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed excellent sentiments. On account of this, large-caps, Mid-cap and Small-cap stocks excelled. This supported bulls to gain control from the bears. Because of which market breadth closed in green. Parallel to fall, Nifty closed below its 9, 14 and 50 day’s SMA 5249, 5292 and 5313 levels but maintained the sanctity of its coveted 100 and 200 day’s SMA placed at 5071 and 5149. VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected and closed at 22+ levels, thus it indicates higher volatility in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 50.50 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness some volatile movements in forthcoming session”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is expected to trade in the range 5250-5380. Below this range 5200 may act as a support level while 5410 would be strong resistance above the given range. Bank-Nifty Future may find support around 10060. Traders are suggested to buy at declines”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing selling pressure for 5th consecutive week, Nifty made hammer candlestick pattern on weekly charts, which shows that Bulls have started to come back. Buying interest may be continuing. Traders may take delivery based positions in good stocks with stoploss levels. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5300. If Nifty shows strength above 5300 levels then we may see rally 5400/5460/5540/5650 If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5300 levels then selling pressure till 5220/5150/5100/5040 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 5300-5330 | 5385 | 5280 |
For the Week | Buy | 5290-5340 | 5425-5455 | 5270 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Rakesh Goel): “Markets have turned highly volatile with both the global as well as domestic events influencing the trend. Going ahead, with important events lined up in the month of April, i.e. Q4FY12-quaterly and FY12 Annual results outcome and RBI’s annual monetary policy on April 17, the markets are expected to be even more volatile. Medium term trend of the market will depend much on the corporate results outcome”. (source: myiris)
VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday (5283-5268)-(5245-5228) would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5256. Above 5283 Nifty could test 5307 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5325-5383-5436-5441-5523. Nifty has support at 5203 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 5172-5080-4950-4768”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “Looking at the current scenario it may further move upwards till 5400. On the downside, important support is placed at 5220. Hence, we recommend a buy near 5265 with stoploss of 5200 and target of 5400”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “In the truncated next week, the positive sentiment from the Government’s clarification on the GAAR issue might continue its momentum. We advise investors to accumulate quality stocks which have fallen in recent market volatility. Beaten down sectors like Banks and metals could outperform”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Options data indicates the Nifty will trade in the range of 5000-5400. The Nifty has intermediate resistance at its 50 DMA of 5313 while support is placed at 5200. Since the Nifty has highest Call base at 5400 strike, a move above those levels may provide further momentum due to closure of short positions. The banking index also bounced from its important 200 DMA of 9840 and closed the week at 10200. Private banking heavyweights witnessed low rollover and expectations from the RBI policy may induce fresh round of buying. The Bank Nifty has important support at 9850 while 10400 may likely to act as an immediate resistance”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “March series of F&O contract expired 5.56 % lower and Nifty witnessed rollover of 59% while overall market witnessed rollover of 75% in open interest with an average cost of carry of 14.50%. Nifty April futures premium closed at 53.00 points. Cost of carry indicated long rollover. Sugar and Realty sectors witnessed the highest rollover at 85% and 81% while the BFSI and Cement space saw the least rollovers at 62% and 64% in open interest respectively. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.17 levels which indicates put writing. Options open interest concentration has shifted to 5500-strike call with the highest open interest of above 28 Lakh shares. Among the put options, the 5000-strike put option has the total open interest of 45 lakh shares which is the highest open interest. Based on Nifty rollovers and Nifty Option concentration, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 5000 to 5500 for the next two weeks. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 21.74% on while the average IV of put options closed at 21.00%. Nifty VIX decreased to 24.33% from 24.87%. Nifty historical volatility decreased to 25.41% from 26.15%. On the daily charts the index should sustain above the 5200 levels for the continuation of the current trend. Hereafter, further crossing of 5400 level will lead to new Bull Run letting Nifty to move to 5500 levels”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the bar generated for the week is a bar that displays strength and gives an indication that the down move temporarily could be arrested. We now have a truncated week with just 3 days of trading with a long weekend ahead. Technically we could see some volatility and the upside could be limited to 5383 zones with strong support emerging around 5200 zones. From a trading point of view I would trade long as long as 5200 holds”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “This week, indices traded marginally below '200-day SMA' support level of 17008/5171 during Thursday's session, but strong buying interest near these levels led indices to close near the 5300 mark. We are now observing a 'Bullish Hammer' candlestick pattern at '20-Week EMA'. The pattern will be activated if indices mange to sustain above last week's high of 17440/5307. In addition, the daily 'RSI' oscillator is positively poised. Hence, we assign a strong probability that indices will cross 17440/5307 level. In such a scenario, indices are likely to move towards the 'Downward Sloping Trend Line' resistance around 17630/5365 level seen on the daily chart. A closing above 17630/5365 level would lead to a 'Trend Line' breakout and indices then may rally further with enhanced positive momentum to test 17871-18041/5445-5500 levels. On the downside, this week's low of 16920/5135 would provide a decent support in the coming trading sessions. Only a breach of this level would resume the negative momentum and indices may slide towards 16828-16600/5076-5000 levels”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “The ratio of good news to bad news is still skewed towards the latter. Risky assets are still maintaining some of this year’s gains, but market players are looking for incremental good news. Mind you, we haven’t heard or read the last word on the controversial issue of GAAR as yet. The FM’s attempt at fiscal consolidation has not evoked a favourable response either. Bond yields have actually climbed and a rate cut on April 17 is not a certainty now. The rupee is once again feeling the heat from rising twin deficits, moderating FII inflows and high crude oil prices. Globally, the US is showing some chinks following this week’s disappointing economic data. The euro-zone debt crisis is also lurking in the background. The S&P has warned that Greece may need another debt recast even as Spain grapples with a nationwide protests against austerity measures. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds have jumped. A meaningful up-tick from here is ruled out at the moment. At the same time, there might be some more downside left. A stock centric and measured approach seems to be the best bet for the time being”. (source: myiris)
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “We expect this rally would continue to 5400. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5400, it may further go up to the level of 5510 and then 5630. However, a closing below 5150 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test the level of 5050. For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 5270 and the resistance is 5400. If Nifty breaks 5270, it may further go down to 5200 and then 5150. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5400, the level of 5510-5630 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5350-5450 in the upper side and 5150-5050 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The critical level for Nifty is expected to be 5345; above the next resistance is seen at 5420, followed by 5520. On downside, the critical support is at 5200, and the lower support will be 5125”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Overall, Nifty has taken support at 200 dma and showed strong buying. The renewed buying interest can take nifty to 5,470 levels in the coming days. On the downside, 5,130 continue to be a support”. (source: myiris)
FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “The market may remain volatile in a truncated week ahead. The next major trigger for the market is Q4 March 2012 earnings. Automobile and cement shares will be in focus as companies from these two sectors start unveiling monthly sales volume data for March 2012 from 1 April 2012. Nifty has upside potential till 5,380-5,400 which is 50% retracement of 5629-5,135 range in coming sessions. However, if Nifty fails to hold onto 200SDMA during coming week then we might see opening up of downside till 4,900. Nifty is still in a medium term down trend till the time it is trading below 5,450 on weekly closing basis. Nifty range for the coming week will be between 5,600-5,080”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On upside, Nifty will face resistance near 5450 mark closing above the next resistance would be 5600 level. On downside, Nifty will see first support near 5150 levels (200 DMA) closing below the next support would be 5000 psychological levels”.
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