The 30-share BSE index, Sensex gained 394 points, or 2.55%, to 15,848.80 in the week ended Jan. 07, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed 123 points, or 2.66%, to 4,746.9 in the same period.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “The focus for the next few weeks would be the Q3 results and guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. The market has been trading in a tight range of 4,700-4,800 on the Nifty. A breakout either way would decide future course of the market”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “For our markets, the ensuing quarterly results season, RBI policy meeting and global events will be the events to watchout in the near term. Post that, budget expectations and the actual budget provisions will likely influence the markets. We believe that, in the medium-to-long term, the policy initiatives by the Government will be the main determinant of the market movement”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting modest losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a positive session and closed on a very flat note. Level wise, closing above the threshold 4750 levels may extend support to the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed mixed sentiments and with the exception of Mid-cap, Large-cap and small-cap segments were closed on positive note. Owing to this firmness, bulls regained the control from bears and that’s too with good margin. Despite a volatile performance, Nifty displayed stability and remained above its vital 9 and 14 day’s SMA placed at 4709 and 4703. But it closed below 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4905 & 4951. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 26+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 48.75 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some recovery in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4740-4830. Below the given range 4700 may act as a strong support while above the range 4858 would be a resistance level. Bank Nifty as a strong resistance around 8687, If sustains above this level huge buying is expected”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty is consolidating in 4530-4800 zones for consecutive 3 weeks. If Nifty manages to sustain above 4800 levels then good recovery may be seen else profit booking may be seen. On downside, Nifty has some support in 4700—4650 zone. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4750-4800. If Nifty shows strength above 4800 levels then we may see rally 4870/4940/5000/5060. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4750 levels then selling pressure till 4700/4650/4600/4530/4450 may also be seen”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “A breakout above 4,810 or a closing below 4,660 will decide the next trend of the market. Meanwhile important job related and consumer confidence data in the US market are expected to be announced tonight. Any unexpected outcome will trigger a sharp movement on either side”.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “The focus for the next few weeks would be the Q3 results and guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. The market has been trading in a tight range of 4,700-4,800 on the Nifty. A breakout either way would decide future course of the market”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Dipen Shah): “For our markets, the ensuing quarterly results season, RBI policy meeting and global events will be the events to watchout in the near term. Post that, budget expectations and the actual budget provisions will likely influence the markets. We believe that, in the medium-to-long term, the policy initiatives by the Government will be the main determinant of the market movement”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting modest losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a positive session and closed on a very flat note. Level wise, closing above the threshold 4750 levels may extend support to the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed mixed sentiments and with the exception of Mid-cap, Large-cap and small-cap segments were closed on positive note. Owing to this firmness, bulls regained the control from bears and that’s too with good margin. Despite a volatile performance, Nifty displayed stability and remained above its vital 9 and 14 day’s SMA placed at 4709 and 4703. But it closed below 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4905 & 4951. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 26+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 48.75 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some recovery in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4740-4830. Below the given range 4700 may act as a strong support while above the range 4858 would be a resistance level. Bank Nifty as a strong resistance around 8687, If sustains above this level huge buying is expected”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty is consolidating in 4530-4800 zones for consecutive 3 weeks. If Nifty manages to sustain above 4800 levels then good recovery may be seen else profit booking may be seen. On downside, Nifty has some support in 4700—4650 zone. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4750-4800. If Nifty shows strength above 4800 levels then we may see rally 4870/4940/5000/5060. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4750 levels then selling pressure till 4700/4650/4600/4530/4450 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 4750-4770 | 4835 | 4730 |
For the Week | Buy | 4700-4760 | 4835-4880 | 4680 |
KARVY STOCK: “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade long in the Nifty above 4,700 levels with a stop loss at 4,680 for targets of 4,750 and 4,800 levels. Alternatively, trade short if the Nifty fails to cross 4,780 levels with a stop loss of 4,800 for targets of 4,750 and 4,700 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty today closed flat to positive and the strength in the recovery that we saw today is expected to continue tomorrow. For Nifty the major support is there at 4,695 and 4,660 while the resistance is there at 4,803 and 4,853 levels”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty is still lacking any clear direction as it consolidates in a narrow range of couple of hundred points. It is very precariously poised after registering a break down of its 200 Week EMA, now placed at 4850. In the immediate term as long as Nifty trades below 4800, the bias remains weak and it remains susceptible to a swift sell off which may this time take it below the recent swing low of 4531. However, in an alternate scenario if Nifty manages to sustain above the level of 4600 and eventually registers a break out above 4800 then it may surge higher till the level of 4897 and in the most optimistic scenario it may test the level of 5000. Thus throughout the next week the level of 4600 as support as well as 4800 as resistance should be keenly watched. An either side break out beyond this range would confirm short term directional cues”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “For the week ahead, street will focus on IIP numbers and result season will kick in with Infosys result on 12th Jan12. We recommend investors to remain confined to quality blue chip stocks and gradually start accumulating quality mid-cap stocks with strong business model, healthy balance sheet and with good corporate governance practices. Market is likely to remain range bound with Nifty expected to be in the range of 4500-5000 level”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Nifty may continue to trade in a range in the coming week till 4800 is not taken out on closing basis. A move above that may induce short covering. Intermediate supports can be observed at 4700 and 4630 levels. Banking index has out performed Nifty primarily due to the cushion provided by the short covering. Short straddles are formed in Bank-Nifty at 8000 strike with total premium of Rs.600. Hence 8600 would act as immediate resistance on upsides. A move above these levels can trigger upsides towards 8800”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “The put-call ratio of open interest increased throughout the week to close at 1.23 indicating put writing. Currently, the highest concentration of open interest in the January series has shifted to the 5000-strike call with open interest of more than 50 lakh shares. The 4500 and 4600 put-option strikes have more than 60 lakh and 50 lakh shares in open interest, respectively. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 24.54% for the week, whereas it was 26.25% for puts. Nifty VIX had consolidated last week. It is trading above its 5 -day EMA and is expected to rise further. The market is expected to remain in the broad range of 4500-4900 in the near term. If the Index manages to climb and sustain past the 4800 mark, it could gradually inch up towards 4900 levels on the back of short-covering. Alternately, a failure to sustain above the 4650 mark will induce further selling pressure, thereby dragging the Nifty down immediately to lower supports of 4500 levels in due course of time”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Structurally the market is weak, but an up move is possible provided the market closes above 4782 during the week and the up move may extend up to around 4863 to 4946 and technically 4600 is a strong support to deal with. From trading point of view, I would wait for a close above 4782 if I have to continue holding on to my long positions. For Monday, the support for the Nifty is at 4700 and resistance at 4815-4863”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “We are now witnessing a positive crossover in ‘RSI’ and ‘Stochastic’ oscillators. Also, indices have been consistently closing above the 20 day-EMA since the past few trading sessions, which indicate possibility of a strong positive momentum if indices manage to sustain above 16070/4820. This level is also coinciding with a ‘Downward Sloping Trend Line’ resistance. Therefore, we reiterate that if indices manage to sustain above 16070/4820, then they are likely to head towards 16286-16421/4881-4920 levels. A move beyond 16421/4920 may push indices higher to test the next resistance levels of 16600-17004/4976-5100. On the downside, 15358-15135/4588-4531 remains to be a strong support level”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Nifty has been moving in the range of 4580 and 4820 since last one week. We expect this range bound movement would continue for another few days. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4820, a strong bullish rally might carry it to 5200 in the short term. However, a breach of 4580 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may further go down and take support near 4530. For the coming week, first support of Nifty is at 4670 and the resistance is 4825. If Nifty breaks 4670, it may further go down to 4640 and then 4580. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 4825, the level of 4880-4920 would become the next target”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The technical indicators are substantiating the fact that the market is currently at a decider level. The RSI is recovering from the oversold territory; MACD is also in the recovery path. However, the Stochastic Oscillators has reached the overbought zone. All these are suggesting that the short-term trend is YET to turn positive. The Critical level for NSE Nifty for the week ahead is expected at 4800. If sustains above this, the first and major resistance is seen at 4866, followed by 4930. On downside, the first support will be 4630, and the downside critical support will be 4580”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “On the weekly basis, Nifty did make a new high but was unable to close above it. If Nifty closes above 4,825 on the upside, Nifty resistances are placed at 4,860-4,910 levels. At the higher end of these levels, Nifty has resistance from the 50 day moving average (dma) as well as a downward sloping trend line gives it a resistance. On the downside, supports are placed at 4,610-4,525 levels in the near term”. (source: myiris)
UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows positive sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing positive crossover in weekly chart, which shows supports are good for buying opportunity. Nifty closed above the 20 day moving average (4709) indicating the short term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing oversold territory and positive sentiment till resistance levels at 4870-4950. The market setup is somewhat positive with trading range between 4660-4950 on weekly basis. The next area of resistance is around at 4875-4950 and supports are at 4700-4660. If Nifty trades below 4650, it may take supports at 4500. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 4875-4950 and supports at 4700-4660. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16250-16450 and supports at 15650-15460. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 8700-8900 and supports at 8260-8050”.
MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 4830 levels on closing basis will continue to be the Major Resistance. If we cross this, 5000 psychological level would become the next valid move. On the downside, we may witness a strong support near 4600 levels but closing below this level for consecutive two or more session may trigger another downfall till 4420-30 marks”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “It was a mixed week for the Indian market which saw a couple of positive sessions and then see-saw move and lackluster days. We believe the market is consolidating in the short term before resuming its downward move. Cues from the global markets were mostly subdued and quiet. For the next week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 4850-4950 in the upper side and 4550-4450 in the lower side”.
GEPL CAPITAL (SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK): “Nifty tested the level of 4800 but fell below 4750 to form intraday low at 4729. Now the immediate support is placed at 4700 which 50% retracement level of the recent rise from 4590 to 4800. Buying can be initiated near 4700 with the stop loss of 4600 for the possible target of 4900. The current trend will be damaged only below 4600, hence strict stop loss of this level is recommended in trading long positions”.
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