"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (05.01.2012)"


At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex declined 56.72 points or 0.36% at 15,882.64 with 18 components posting drop. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty went down by 15.65 points or 0.33% at 4,749.65 with 31 components registering drop.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: Markets seem to have taken a breather after yesterday’s rally. We continue with our upside target expectations of 4800-4840. Weakness could emerge if the immediate supports of 4720 are broken”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, after exhibiting significant gains in last session, Nifty witnessed a weak session and closed with loss. Level wise, closing above the threshold 4740 levels may extend support to the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Despite a poor performance, Nifty displayed stability and remained above its vital 9 and 14 day’s SMA placed at 4708 and 4686. But it closed below 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4958 & 4918. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 26+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 48.41 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some recovery in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:Nifty is facing selling pressure around 4800 and failed to cross the resistance. If sustained above 4800 it is likely to test 4858 and 4915 levels. Nifty has a good support level near 4693 and 4666. Bank Nifty has a good support at 8230 and 8178. Traders are suggested to buy at decline around these levels for target 8550 in short term”.
BONANZA ONLINE: Nifty showed profit booking from resistance near 4,800 levels and closed in red. Bears are trying to enter from resistance near 4,800 levels. Buying momentum may continue only above 4,800 levels. On Downside, bulls have support in 4,700-4,650 zone. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is 4,750. If Nifty shows strength above 4,750 levels, then rally to 4,800/4,835/4,900 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4,750 levels then selling pressure till 4,700/4,650/4,600 may also be seen”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):Volatility was the order of the day and is likely to play prominent role in coming days as well. Nifty companies will kick start their result season with leading companies Infosys and HDFC announcing their Q3FY12 results on Jan.12, 2012. Meanwhile market men will keep an eye over the upcoming US employment and manufacturing data later this week that will continue to influence the market sentiments. Nifty is likely to be volatile within the range of 4,580 and 4,800”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat note tomorrow. Trade long in the Nifty above 4,750 levels with a stop loss at 4,720 for targets of 4800 levels. Alternatively, trade short if the Nifty fails to cross 4,800 levels with a stop loss of 4,820 for targets of 4,750”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): Nifty today closed below 4,750 and is finding it difficult to move above 4,785-4,800 mark. However 4,800 and 4,825 remains a resistance level for Nifty while 4,724 and 4,660 levels are the support levels. The outlook still remains sideways and a break above or below 4,850 and 4,660 respectively will give a trend to the market movement".
GEPL CAPITAL: After a sharp rally from 4588, Nifty has reached near the previous high on Nifty at 4800 where sideways movement may be seen for some more trading sessions. Any intraday correction up to 4700 may provide buying opportunity in fundamentally sound frontline stocks with the stop loss of 4600. The upward breakout above 4800 may push Nifty towards resistance zone of 4850–4900 levels”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): The market opened on the high and consolidated and taking care to stay above the 4700 mark. Technically 4816 is still the target and 4700 is still a strong support to deal with. The support for the Nifty is at 4700 and resistance at 4815-4863”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani):The two-day rally may give an impression that things are looking up again. The appetite for risk could extend for a day or two. But, doubts persist whether the upbeat start to January can be sustained given the foggy outlook for the Indian economy and problems plaguing other markets. The bounce in world markets may bump into resistance amid persistent worries about the euro zone debt crisis. Most market participants are still cautious after suffering big losses last year. Investors are holding onto cash and are not willing to commit in risky asset classes like EMs as yet given the downbeat outlook for the economy. In India, policymakers are confronting plenty of problems. It will take a while for them to deal with each one decisively and revive the sluggish domestic economy. So, the most prudent strategy is to adopt a 'wait-and-watch' approach in the short term, and avoid undue adventures”.  (source: myiris)
MICROSEC SECURITIES:Nifty is likely to move in the range of 4600 and 4920 in the short term. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4920, an upward rally might carry it to 5050. However, a breach of 4600 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test the level of 4530 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to hold long positions with a stop loss of 4600. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4710 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 4825. If Nifty breaks 4710, it may further go down to 4670 and then 4640. However, if it is able to sustain above 4825, the level of 4860–4920 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:Wednesday was a subdued day for the Indian market which opened flat and traded within a narrow range on the back of mixed global cues. Pressure was seen in cement, auto and telecom sectors but some buying was witnessed in capital goods and private banks. For today’s trade, market likely to trade in the range between 4775 & 4810 in the upper side and 4720 & 4700 in the lower side”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 15,903/4,754 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,984-16,086/4,779-4,808 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 15,903/4,754 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,802-15,721/4,725-4,700 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): After a quiet opening, indices traded in a narrow range throughout the day. The bulls appeared to be sceptical while approaching the mentioned resistance zone of 16020–16070/4800–4820. These levels acted as a stiff resistance during yesterday’s session and a strong selling pressure near day’s high dragged indices to close marginally in the negative territory. Going forward, we reiterate that only a sustainable move above 16070/4820 would reinforce a positive momentum. A possibility of this scenario cannot be ruled out as the positive crossover observed in RSI, Stochastic, 3 & 8 EMA and ADX (9) is still intact. Therefore, a move beyond 16070/4820 level may push indices higher to test 16286–16421/4881–4920 levels. On the downside, immediate support levels are at 15810–15640/4725–4675”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:It was a highly volatile and a disappointing session for the bulls on the bourses. Nifty somehow manages to keep the closing above support levels i.e. 4740. All major indicators RSI & MACD have provided upside rally towards 4840/4870 levels. Nifty has support 4600/4540”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): The Indian markets are expected to open flat due to mixed cues from overseas markets. A range bound trading may be seen NSE Nifty between the support at 4718 and the Critical level of 4792 for most part of the day. If the index moves out of this range, a strong trend may emerge. Above 4792, the index can target towards 4816 and on any upheaval, the rally can extend towards 4836.However, on a fall below 4718, the benchmark is expected to take support at 4689”.
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