"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR TUESDAY (03.01.2012)"


At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex added 63 points or 0.41% at 15,517.92 with 19 components posting rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 12.45 points or 0.27% at 4,636.75 with 30 components posting rise.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: With the markets ending flat, traders will need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the immediate lows of 4602. A close below these supports could see the Nifty heading towards the next major lows of 4531. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 4690”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, after exhibiting significant losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a weak session but closed with marginal gains. Level wise, closing above the threshold 4615-4620 levels may extend some support to the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. However the crucial resistance level 4670-4680 has to break for any upside movement. Nifty, still trading below its vital 9, 14, 50, 100 & 200 days SMA placed at 4698.17, 4685.86, 4932.24, 4968.58 and 5274.41. These may act as resistance in coming days. Broader market witnessed feebly positive sentiments, segments, like small-cap and mid-cap were feebly positive. But owing to weakness in large-caps, bulls lost the control to the bears but with reduced margin in most part of the day. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 27.53 yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 40.03 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some positive movements in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4577-4688. However, below the given range 4530 and 4480 would be the other support levels while above the range 4730 would be a major resistance level. Bank Nifty may trade in the range 8730-8080. However, 7878 may act as crucial support level for the session”.
BONANZA ONLINE: Nifty made hammer candlestick pattern on daily charts which shows that bulls are trying to enter from support in 4,600-4,580 zone. On upside, Nifty has resistance at 4,650 levels. If Nifty manages to maintain above 4,650 levels then recovery may be seen else profit booking may be seen. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 4,630-4,650. If Nifty shows strength above 4,630-4,650 levels, then rally to 4,700/4,750/4,800 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4,630 levels then selling pressure till 4,580/4,540/4,500 may also be seen”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):The short term trend has turned sideways to bearish. However since the results season is about to begin, much will depend upon the Q3FY12 results outcome. Nifty has fallen by over 24% in year 2011 and since the reports of advance tax figures for Q3FY12 are also not very encouraging, market is unlikely to change the trend very soon. Meanwhile global developments will continue to influence the market sentiments. Nifty held the support level of 4585 today. A close below 4580 will take Nifty to next support level of 4,540-4,530”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade short in the Nifty below 4,650 levels with a stop loss of 4,680, for targets of 4,600 and 4,580 levels”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): Technically the market is still weak but could generate a small trading up move to around 4720 if support comes in the lower regions. The support for the Nifty is at 4570 and resistance at 4700-4750”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:The short term crucial resistance of Nifty is at 4770. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4770, it may further go up to the level of 4920 and then 5000 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 4530 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test the level of 4420 and then 4350 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to hold long positions with a stop loss of 4530. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4600 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 4680. If Nifty breaks 4600, it may further go down to 4560 and then 4530. However, if it is able to sustain above 4680, the level of 4720–4770 would become the next target”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES:Technically on the daily charts, Nifty is moving in a downward sloping channel/band. On this downward slopping channel Nifty (spot) has supports around 4,340 levels. And the break of this channel would suggest further serious correction in Nifty. However, on the flip side any correction in the USDINR rates below 51.50, could result in strong rise in Nifty above 5,000 levels”. (source: myiris)
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:Monday it was a lacklustre start to the year 2012 for the Indian market which opened flat and remained within a tight range for most part of the day. In the last hour, the benchmark indices surged, aided by oil & gas, IT and banks, and managed to close with modest gains. For today’s trade, market likely to trade in the range between 4670 & 4710 in the upper side and 4600 & 4570 in the lower side”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 15,473/4,624 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,588–15,658/4,659–4,681 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 15,473/4,624 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,403–15,288/4,601–4,566 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): As stated in the earlier report, we witnessed selling pressure below 15406/4609 and indices corrected to test expected support level of 15331/4589. However, during the second half, buying was clearly seen in large cap counters which led indices to close near day’s high. We are now observing a candlestick pattern which resembles a ’Dragon Fly Doji’. This formation has taken place exactly at the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 15135 to 16049/4531 to 4801. The said bullish pattern will ONLY be confirmed if prices sustain above yesterday’s high of 15543/4646. In this case, indices are likely to rally towards 15694–15797/4691–4726 levels. On the downside, yesterday’s low of 15358/4588 is likely to act as strong support level in coming trading session. The above mentioned pattern will be negated only on the violation of yesterday’s low and in such a scenario indices can drift towards the recent bottom of 15135/4531”.
GEPL CAPITAL: The immediate support zone of Nifty Futures is placed between 4600 and 4550 and it is desperately trying to maintain the crucial level of 4600. The intraday chart of Nifty Futures of 60 minutes is showing a volume accumulation and positive RSI divergence indicating some bounce back from the current levels. On upward side 4700-4750 is immediate resistance zone and surpassing of this range will push Nifty Futures towards its earlier high of 4810. As the weekly close is in negative direction, indicating bearish trend is still intact and major breakdown may be seen below the level of 4500, hence caution is recommended. After the Timing Cycle day of 2nd January, the trend direction will be visible in next 2 trading sessions where the important levels are 4500 and 4750. The intermediate trend of Nifty Futures will remain in downward direction till the weekly close is below 5275 mark. The intraday resistance levels for Nifty Futures are placed at 4680 & 4720 and support levels are placed at 4600 & 4550 respectively”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:Indian equities started the first trading session of the New Year 2012 on a cautious yet choppy note. Nifty has crucial support at 4600 level. Any move above 4680 will take a Nifty towards 4720/4740 levels. Nifty has support 4570/4530”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY):Today the markets are likely to open on a flat to positive note on back of mixed global cues. All emerging markets are trading positive. The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4550 on declines and 4800 on advances”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): The NSE Nifty is expected to open firm on positive cues from Asian markets, but may move in a thin band between the Critical support at 4642 and the resistance at 4692 due to lack of any major triggers. From mid-session onwards, our market will take cues from global indices and if the index sustain above 4692, a further rally can be expected towards the higher target of 4729. During any intra-day weakness, on any fall below 4642 index may get a lower support at 4628”.
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