"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (22.12.2011)"


At the close, the benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex added 510.13 points or 3.36% at 15,685.21 with 28 components posting rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 148.95 points or 3.28% at 4,693.15 with 45 components registering rise.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open lower following weak global cues. However, later during the day, it could find support at lower levels and make an attempt to recover some of its losses. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4750”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (SHRIKANT CHOUHAN):For the coming days, Nifty is expected to test the higher-zone of 4,735/4,750 levels. Resistance to be seen at these levels. Above 4,770, resistance is placed at 4830 levels. Trading above 4,750 will be viewed positively for the higher side target of 4830. However, as the trend is down positional traders may look for adding short positions at resistance levels and take a contra call at 4,800 of buying put options. Sector specific there was activity heavily into Auto and Banking. Banking sector is facing short covering and at resistance levels we should be cautious while adding long positions. World markets are still into neutral trend and might face hurdle at higher levels may be due to the formation of lower highs at each recovery. In the context of world markets comparison our markets are certainly going to under-perform due to stable oil price, long term negative trend of INR and likely downgrades economy based on macroeconomics. Even technically our markets are trading below their median levels and more than 80% of NSE 500 stocks are trading comfortably below 200 days simple moving average, which is a sign of long term bearishness”. (source: myiris)
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, after exhibiting significant losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a good & gainful session and closed with exalted gains. Level wise, closing above the threshold 4630 levels may depict returning strength of the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed firm sentiments, segments, like large-caps, small-cap, mid-cap were under bulls support. Owing to this, bulls outnumbered the bears with significant margin. Due to buying Nifty recover significantly from its lowest levels, yet continued to close below its vital 9, 14, 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 4715, 4820, 4987 & 5034. Though, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 27+, yet it indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 41.50 levels and MACD closed below the signal line. Market may continue to witness limited upward movements in forthcoming session amidst higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in a range 4655-4765. Below the given range 4611 would be a strong support for the session while 4820-30 may act as major resistance level. In Bank Nifty 8380 and 8550 would be major resistance levels.
BONANZA ONLINE: After showing selling pressure for 5 consecutive days, Nifty showed good recovery and closed near 4,700 levels. Buying momentum may be continuing above 4,700 levels. If Nifty do not hold 4,700 levels then profit booking may also be seen. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 4,700. If Nifty shows strength above 4,700 levels, then rally to 4,750/4,810/4,840 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4,700 levels then selling pressure till 4,650/4,600/4,540 may also be seen”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel):The much expected technical recovery was witnessed today. A close above 4,750 is expected to change the short term trend of the market to bullish. Global developments will continue to influence the market direction. Nifty is likely to consolidate within 4,450-4,750 range in medium term”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty at 4,700 or from 4,680 with a stoploss placed at 4,650 for targets of 4,750-4,780”.
GEPL CAPITAL: Above 4700 the intermediate resistance for Nifty Futures is placed at 4850 which is likely to provide a strong resistance. Now the level of 4600 will act as a stop loss for long trading positions as below this level again selling spree may continue. Long positions in Nifty Futures can be created in the zone of 4680-4660 with the SL of 4600 and target of 4820-4840. The Short term RSI on daily chart has entered in positive mode and supporting the probable uptrend in Nifty Futures. The intermediate trend of Nifty Futures will remain in downward direction till the weekly close is below 5275 mark. The intraday resistance levels for Nifty Futures are placed at 4740 & 4780 and support levels are placed at 4660 & 4600 respectively”.
SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY):The market may drift lower in opening trade on weak Asian stocks. The government will announce the weekly food inflation numbers around noon”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): Technically the market is still in a reactive mode but should continue the climb until its logical target of 4815 in the days to come…The support for the Nifty is at 4600 and resistance at 4815”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): Indices opened on an optimistic note and crossed key resistance level of 15450/4638 during the latter part of the session to rally towards 15750/4730. We are now observing a positive crossover in daily ‘RSI’ momentum oscillator. The positive impact of this crossover may be seen if indices manage to sustain above yesterday’s high of 15727/4707. In this scenario, markets are likely to rally towards 15850/4754 level and may even test the 20 EMA at 16020/4800. On the downside, 15450–15135/4638–4531 levels are likely to act as support in coming trading sessions”.  
IIFL (Amar Ambani):The overnight rally in the US and European markets brought some festive cheer across Asian markets ahead of Christmas. An upbeat report on the US housing market, coupled with an encouraging reading on German business sentiment and a well-received Spanish bond auction triggered the spike in risky assets. Traders were also looking ahead to the results of a key lending program by the ECB on Wednesday. However, the scenario on the domestic front continues to be fairly bleak with the Government struggling to pass crucial bills in Parliament amid resistance from opposition and allies alike. A ballooning fiscal deficit has added to the long list of concerns, with the Centre likely to overshoot the FY12 target by a long margin. The Government’s fiscal conditions are likely to worsen with populist measures like the Food Security Bill. All eyes are on the upcoming UP elections and the Union Budget next year. One has to see whether UPA II gathers enough courage to implement important economic reforms”.  (source: myiris) 
MICROSEC SECURITIES:After making a two years low of 4531.15 on Tuesday, Nifty has given a strong pull back rally yesterday. Now the short term crucial resistance of Nifty is at 4825. If Nifty is able to maintain above 4825, it may further go up to the level of 4920 and then 5000 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 4530 would indicate the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may test the level of 4420 and then 4350 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4530 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4660 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 4720. If Nifty breaks 4660, it may further go down to 4620 and then 4570. However, if it is able to sustain above 4720, the level of 4765–4825 would become the next target”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 15,597/4,667 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,816–15,947/4,733–4,773 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 15,597/4,667 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,466–15,246/4,628–4,562 levels”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:Wednesday the markets gained quite significantly with both benchmark indices closing with more than 3% gains. All sectoral indices closed positive with banking outperforming all other sectors. Other lead gainers included consumer durables, oil & gas, auto, IT and metal. For today’s trade, market likely to trade in the range between 4730 & 4770 in the upper side and 4670 & 4650 in the lower side”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): After the opening the NSE Nifty is expected to move in a sideways manner between its first support at 4640 and the Critical level at 4708.From the mid-session a change from this range can be expected and if the index trades below 4640,it may get lower support at 4620.The sentiment can once again turn to the positive side, if Nifty stabilizes above 4708 wherein which the upside target is at 4731. Above this level, the upside rally can extend the benchmark towards the next resistance at 4761”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:Any move above 4740 will take a Nifty towards 4800/4840 levels. Nifty has support 4600/4540”.
GEPL CAPITAL (SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK):The immediate support for Nifty is placed at 4520 and breach of this level will show panic selling heading towards 4300. But sustaining above 4650 is likely to trigger a bounce back, pushing Nifty Futures in the zone of 4700-4750. The timing cycle day on 19th December is indicating higher probability of bounce back which will get confirmed above 4650. Till Nifty trades below 4850, the bear grip is likely to remain in the market keeping the trend in downward direction”.
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