The benchmark 30-share benchmark index, Sensex surged 291.7 points or 1.8% during the week to 16,453.76. Meanwhile, the broad based Nifty gained 75.5 points or 1.55% over the week to 4,943.25.
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 459.47 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 517.34 crore on Friday, the 30th September 2011(prov. fig.)
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 459.47 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 517.34 crore on Friday, the 30th September 2011(prov. fig.)
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “Though the markets have pulled back this week, it must be remembered that the short term and intermediate trend remains down. The downtrend is likely to accelerate if the Nifty lows of 4906 are broken next week. On the upside, the Nifty needs to break the recent highs of 5168 to enter into a fresh intermediate uptrend”.
KOTAK SECURITIES: “With the global growth slowing down, commodity prices may also see some softening. This may anchor expectations on inflation and interest rates in India, which will be a positive. In India, we have had some progress on reforms with the approval of the draft Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill 2011 and the Mining Bill. If we see more progress on the administrative and procedural reforms, India may start looking attractive to global investors. I see the markets remaining range bound till further clarity emerges on the global issues. Affirmative action on policy reforms and moderation in commodity prices will be a positive for the markets”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after making a positive candle in last session, today Nifty exhibited its weakness and closed on red note. Nifty failed to maintain not only a positive closing, but also lost its sentimental level of 5000. Inline to a weak show, Bears maintained their supremacy over bulls to regain the full control of the market and because of this, Indices closed with negative market breadth. In today’s session, Nifty not only lost its vital supports of 4980 and 5000 but also closed below the vital supports of 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 4975 and 4994. 50 & 100 day’s SMA levels were recorded at 5129 & 5318 levels, i.e. above the Nifty closing; these may be the resistances in forthcoming sessions. Selling was evident in Large Caps, small cap & mid cap and most of the Sectoral indices too closed on weak note. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a little corrected level of 31.94, but it still indicates a more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 45.46 levels and MACD closed above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may continue to witness consolidation in forthcoming session”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty made long legged candle on weekly charts which shows indecision among bulls and bears. Nifty has good support in 4950-4900 zone. Selling pressure may resume if Nifty maintains below 4900 levels. On the other hand, if Nifty maintains above 4950 levels then recovery till 5050 may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 4900-4950. If Nifty shows strength above 4950 levels then we may see rally 5050/5100/5150/5200 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4900 levels then selling pressure till 4825/4750/4650/4550 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 4870-4900 | 4940 | 4850 |
For the Week | Sell | 4960-5000 | 4870-4820-4780 | 5040 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO: “Outcome of voting in German parliament on EFSF fund debate will not only affect the European markets but will have influence on domestic bourses as well. Upside resistance exist at 5100-5150 range. On downside, 4800 is a key trend decider level for the market”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat note the next trading day. Trade short in Nifty above 4,970 levels with a stoploss at 5,000 levels for targets of 4,930-4,900 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Going forward market may remain in a tight range of 4850-4800 on the lower side and 5030 and 5200 on the higher side. Major break above or below these levels will decide the future course of the market”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Over the week, anticipation and then occurrence of Germany’s Parliament approving expansion of the Euro-area rescue fund led to a recovery in the global equity markets. The US markets were up ~2%, Japan 1.6%; in-line our markets were up 1.6%-1.8%. The technology index recovered 4.1% on improved global sentiments and continuing depreciation of the rupee against the dollar to ` 49. The metals index was down 4.5% on account of the Union Cabinet approving the new mining bill which seeks 26% profit sharing for coal mining companies and doubling royalties for other mining companies. The mining bill was most negative for coal companies like Coal India and GMDC and consequently they were down ~5% post the cabinet approval. Continuing to seek safety, FII outflows for the week were at ` 20.9b; DII’s outflows were at ` 2.1bn. While the Germany Parliament’s approval to buy bonds in secondary markets, enable bank recapitalisation and offer precautionary credit lines helps to calm the panic for the time being, there is still doubt over whether Spain and Italy and their banks would get access to private market funding at reasonable rates that doesn’t exacerbate their debt and deficits. Interest rates on Spanish or Italian debt rising sharply could exacerbate the crisis of confidence in the European banking system as European banks hold a large chunk of Spanish and Italian debt. Equity markets are likely to continue to follow global cues. Commodities are likely to continue to see more pain”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Ongoing high volatility regime may continue till the result season and the Nifty may experience sharp movement within the range in either direction. However, we expect 4900 to act as a strong support for the Nifty below which the Nifty may test the lower levels of 4750 as well. On the higher side, 5030 levels should impose a stiff resistance to the broader index. Despite several attempts, the Banking index failed to surpass the 9600 mark convincingly and observed selling pressure at every rise. The private banking space seems to be in more trouble than their PSU counterparts. The immediate support for the Bank Nifty lie around 9200 levels while 9600 should act as an important resistance in the near term”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Nifty has average rollover of 60% which is below last three month average rollover .Banking, Metals and Telecom sectors has seen short rollover whereas defensive sectors like Parma and FMCG has seen long rollover indicating defensive buying interest. Nifty saw a sharp bounce-back from 4720 levels however; it was unable to take out the crucial resistance zone of 5180-5200. On the options front, volatility has increased considerably as the VIX crossed 30%, which is well above its long-term average, indicating volatile trades ahead with a negative bias. Currently, the highest addition of open interest is in the 4800 put (53 lakh shares) and the 5200 call (43 lakh shares). The overall market open interest dropped by 20% in the opening of October expiry compared to previous expiry. Hereafter, the market is expected to remain in the range of 4800- 5100 levels in the short term. Technically, the Index is trading below all its moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.53 indicating short-term caution. The options data imply that markets may remain volatile in the near term. The implied volatility (IV) of call options closed at 28.90% for the week, whereas it closed at 29.09% for puts. Nifty VIX had picked up during the week. It is indication of instability in the short term. However, in our view, currently, the Index may continue to face stiff resistance around 5070-5100 levels, and is likely to remain sideways-to-bearish in the near term. Any sustenance below the 4,900 level will intensify selling pressure”.
PINC RESEARCH: “Nifty made a smart come back from the lows of around 4750 which in effect only diluted the strong negative sentiment. But in spite of an up-move of around 300 points, the trend still remains entrenched in the bear territory. There is also a chance that the September Expiry could have lent a hand to this up-move from around 4750. A change of standpoint could only be deemed necessary if the resistance zone of 5200-5250 gets successfully breached. Until that happens, a picture of a gloomy canvas would continue to prevail the market sentiment. A look at the technical indicators suggests that the medium term trend still remains skewed in favour of the sellers. On the upside, stiff headwinds should emerge around the zone of 5200-5250. Failure to breach this resistance should result in Nifty resuming its down trend. The negative weekly oscillator coupled with it being below an important moving average supports a continuing weak view for the Nifty. In terms of price, any further decline should translate in the Nifty retesting its earlier lows of around 4700 and then possibly 4500 which also coincides with the support of the lower trendline of the channel”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is in a typical sideways zone with no sign of direction and a slide down to around 4800 is a possibility because 5037 is a stiff resistance and a breakout above 5037 should propel the market to 5153-5208 zones. But will it happen is the big question... For Monday, I would now say that 4900 is a crucial support to deal with and 5037 a stiff resistance… a breakout of this range is necessary for a trend to emerge. The support for the Nifty is at 4900 and resistance at 5037-5095-5170. From a trading point of view I would watch the 5037 and trade short below it”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Broadly speaking, indices are stuck in a trading range of 15756 to 17250/4720 to 5200. On the Daily chart, we are now observing that "20 EMA" and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from 17191 to 15801/5169 to 4758 indicate a similar resistance level. This level is at 16670/5010. Going forward, selling pressure is likely to intensify on the violation of Thursday's low of 16316/4906. Subsequently, indices are likely to drift towards 16000-15765/4800-4720 levels. A breach of the crucial support level at 15765/4720 would lead to a further fall towards 15650-15330/ 4675-4540 levels. On the upside, 16756-17000/5034-5110 levels are likely to act as a resistance in coming week”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “On the whole the mood was cautious as investors took a breather after a volatile week. Lingering uncertainties over the Eurozone debt crisis coupled with trepidation about slowdown in the US and China continued to act as overhang on the Indian markets. Domestically, the macro-economic situation is also not very good, given the concerns over the Government’s deteriorating finances, policy paralysis, high inflation, rising interest rates, softer Rupee, sluggish FII inflows, weak capex cycle and moderating earnings growth. Corporate earnings, manufacturing PMI data, monthly auto and cement sales volumes, IIP numbers, monthly inflation and the RBI policy meet will be among the few important events to keep an eye on over the next few week”. (source: myiris)
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been moving in the range of 4800 and 5110 for last few days. So the level of 4800 and 5110 become short term crucial support and resistance respectively. If Nifty breaches 4800, it may further go down and take support near 4700. However, a breach of 5110 would open the gate for 5230 in the extreme short term. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4800 of all long positions. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 4900 and the resistance is 5040. If Nifty breaks 4900, it may further go down to 4860 and then 4800. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5040, the level of 5110-5230 would become the next target”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On weekly charts, we can observe that Nifty is taking support at the 200-day moving average line. For the coming week, 4870 is the immediate support for the week. If the index slips below these levels then the selling pressure will cause Nifty to get support near 4810/4750 levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 5030 levels on any bounce back. Strength can be seen if it decisively maintains above these levels. Further gains are likely to face resistance towards 5105/5170 levels”.
HEM SECURITIES: “Auto and cement shares will be in focus next week as companies from these two sectors start unveiling monthly sales data for September 2011. Cement sales is likely to pick up as monsoon withdraws. On the other hand, higher interest rates and recent petrol price hike is expected to adversely impact sales of cars and two-wheelers during the festive season. For Monday the markets are expected to be sideways”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “International markets, flows are bound to remain in focus but corporate results will be the key. Expectations are not too high from the current results but we have not yet seen a significant reduction in earning estimates for current year. Thus a visible deterioration in performance and guidance from companies has the potential to dampen sentiment further and lead to more weakness in the short term. Sectors like Cement, Pharma, FMCG have held out while we have seen some recovery in software and auto stocks on hopes of better performance. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signalling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed below the 50 day moving average (5130) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4800-5100. The next area of resistance is around at 5020-5110. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 4880-4800 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4900 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5020-5110 and supports at 4880-4800. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16700-17050 and supports at 16320-16110. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9675-9880 and supports at 9280-9000”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets performed well during the week and both benchmark indices closed with significant gains. ADAG stocks were the exception in the bullish trend and closed with substantial losses. This week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5035 & 5090 in the upper side and 4810 & 4750 in the lower side”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “The important levels to watch are 5020 as upward breakout and 4840 as a breakdown. Above 5020, there is a higher probability of testing the double top level of 5170. If Nifty fails to sustain above 5000 mark and breaches 4840 level again panic selling may be seen in the market till the level of 4700. Buying can be initiated between this zone of 4905-4880 with the SL of 4840 and initial target of 5020. For position-wise, Nifty made double top at 5170 levels and corrected sharply downwards up to 4900 level. The breach of 4900 may push Nifty towards earlier bottom of 4700”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets performed well during the week and both benchmark indices closed with significant gains. ADAG stocks were the exception in the bullish trend and closed with substantial losses. This week, Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5035 & 5090 in the upper side and 4810 & 4750 in the lower side”.
GEPL CAPITAL: “The important levels to watch are 5020 as upward breakout and 4840 as a breakdown. Above 5020, there is a higher probability of testing the double top level of 5170. If Nifty fails to sustain above 5000 mark and breaches 4840 level again panic selling may be seen in the market till the level of 4700. Buying can be initiated between this zone of 4905-4880 with the SL of 4840 and initial target of 5020. For position-wise, Nifty made double top at 5170 levels and corrected sharply downwards up to 4900 level. The breach of 4900 may push Nifty towards earlier bottom of 4700”.
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