FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 427.67 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 85.07 crore on Friday, the 9th September 2011(prov. fig.)
The BSE Sensex shed 298.57 points or 1.74% to settle at 16,866.97, its lowest closing level since 6 September 2011. The index fell 334.95 points at the day's low of 16,830.95 in late trade. The index rose 46.26 points at the day's high of 17,211.80 in early trade, its highest level since 12 August 2011. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 93.80 points or 1.82% to settle at 5,059.45, its lowest closing level since 5 September 2011. The Nifty hit a low of 5,046.80 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.84% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.75%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was negative. The breadth was strong at the onset of the trading session. On BSE, 1,672 shares fell and 1,207 shares rose and a total of 93 shares remained unchanged. Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 23 fell while rest of them rose.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Nifty reacting sharply from the 5170 resistances this week, the recent upmove seems to be under threat. Traders will need to watch if the Nifty can now hold above the recent lows of 4942 in the coming week. Else, the bears would gain control”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “On a relative basis, Sensex performance was in line with the global markets. In the next week, there is the IIP data and monetary policy meeting to watch out for. Markets could come under pressure depending upon the outcome of the meet. The RBI Governor’s speech would be closely followed for any signals of a pause in the rate tightening cycle. Post the gains in the past two weeks, we expect markets to consolidate. Global economy has several issues to contend with in the near term. For retail investors, we advise a stock-specific approach at this juncture”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Indian indices exhibited their tiredness after recent steep run and first time in last ten sessions, went to close with deep cuts. Despite today’s bearish candle, momentum may return into our market till lower support of 5050 and 5000 are intact. However, losing of the vital support of 5100 may add to buyers’ worries. Technically, next session will be very vital for our indices, wherein if today’s bearish candle gets annulled by any firm move, bulls may continue to lead the market. Despite a weak show, Nifty successfully maintained its closing above the vital levels of 9 & 14 day’s SMA placed at 5014 & 4968 but closed below the vital support levels of 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 5317 & 5564 levels; this may be the new ranges in forthcoming sessions. Selling rush in large caps, small cap & mid cap supported Bears to snatch control from bulls, because of which, Indices closed with negative market breadth. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a higher level of 28.15, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 47.15 levels and MACD closed above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may continue to witness some consolidation”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After making bullish belt hold line candlestick pattern, Nifty made spinning top candlestick pattern previous week, which shows that bulls are losing control and bears are trying to enter from higher levels. Sentiment to some extent may depend upon RBI monetary policy in this week. Nifty has some support in 5000-4950 zone and resistance in 5150-5250 zones. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5050. If Nifty shows strength above 5050 levels then we may see rally 5125/5200/5250/5300 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5050 levels then selling pressure till 5000-4950/4850/4800/4750 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 4990-5010 | 5050-5070 | 4970 |
For the Week | Buy | 4940-4980 | 5040-5080-5120 | 4920 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “The measures proposed by Barack Obama failed to infuse confidence in the global investors as they resorted to selling amid concerns of global recession. With even the domestic policy makers expressing concerns over the growth of our economy in the second quarter of FY12, the markets are in for the hard time ahead. Short and medium term trend is bearish and all eyes are now on the RBI’s monetary policy and its stance in the coming week. Long term trend will be influenced by the policy outcome till then Nifty is likely to trade with a downward bias in the range of 5100-4950”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 5,050 levels targeting 5,000-4,980 levels with a stop loss placed below 5,080 levels. Alternatively, trade long in Nifty above 5,080 levels targeting 5,150 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES: “Nifty, for the day closed below the support of 5072 and the afternoon selling is due to the fact that investors took profits fearing a fall in IIP numbers on Monday. Crucial support now for Nifty would be at 4998 and 4967 while the resistance is at 5113 and 5169 levels”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Our markets gave up most of the gains made early in the week on the last day, rising 0.3-0.4% for the week. With the uncertainty surrounding (1) a liquidity crisis in the European Financial system (European banks have been withdrawing funds and depositing it with the US Fed and inter-bank lending being strained), (2) whether monetary and fiscal stimulus in the US would be adequate to stave off a possible double dip recession or near-recession level growth and (3) whether RBI would continue a hawkish stance on monetary policy given high food inflation, profit booking took place to cash on the gains made over the past few days. There were also unfounded rumours of a possible change in guard in the Government which affected the sentiments. Infrastructure and capital goods had a smart rally as these were oversold and it was further supported by hopes that the land acquisition bill would ease constraints in infrastructure and economic capacity creation going forward. Mid-caps had a good rally too, playing catch-up with the run up in the large-cap stocks last week. FII net inflows were good at ` 23.6bn, whereas DII net outflows were at ~` 7.6bn. After withdrawal of ~` 94bn in August, the FII flows have quietly picked up in September. Markets are likely to continue to follow global cues till the RBI monetary policy meeting on 16th Sept. 2011. Our investment strategy is to continue to stick to companies with quality management, good corporate governance, low debt and high focus on domestic consumption. Long term investors with some risk appetite could dabble in some infrastructure stocks with good parentage. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5020 & 4894 levels and would face resistance at 5146 & 5200 levels”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “Nifty is likely to trade with a bearish bias if it fails to hold 5050. A move above 5150 may trigger substantial short covering in index heavyweights. With upcoming events like inflation, IIP numbers and RBI monetary policy, we expect the Nifty to remain volatile in the range of 4850-5150. The banking index may remain under pressure below 9800. Significant accumulation of short positions in private banking stocks may keep the index subdued for a while. On the downsides, 9200 is expected to remain an important support”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “This week Indian market outperformed the other global peers and accumulated the further gains. The markets remained stock specific and witnessed shifting of interest from large cap to mid cap. The expectation is that Nifty may consolidate at the current range (4900-5300) with choppy behaviour. However, the 5300 level will remain crucial level for bulls. On the contrary, the index has a strong support at 5000 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest rose to 1.54 from 1.4 levels indicating further put writing. The options open interest concentration on call side have good build up at 5200, 5300 and 5400 level with open interest above 50 lakhs each. Among put options, the 5000-strike put option has the total open interest of 78 lakhs shares which is the highest open interest among all options, followed by 4800- strike with open interest more than 75 lakhs. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 20.93% on Thursday, while the average IV of put options closed at 22.01%. The volatility may see further surge due to important upcoming news events”.
PINC RESEARCH: “Last week's price action has resulted in the nifty advancing towards the upper area of this range. Any upmove beyond that looks like a far fetched possibility. The short-term technical indicators are also now reaching an overbought zone which suggests that odds for upside possibilities are diminishing. Friday’s move could be indicating that a change of direction in the short term could have occurred. It is also likely that this can result in a medium term change of direction as medium term technical continue to exhibit weakness. Global equities especially European indices are deep into a bear trend and any likelihood of a swift recovery is almost nil. On the backdrop of a weak global scenario, the prospects of our indices to starkly outperform could be asking for too much. The Nifty is currently trading below an important medium term moving average. Also, it is confirmed by medium term indicator which is also confirming this bearish possibility. Due to this, any declines could head towards the lower end of the trend channel which is currently at 4700”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is still weak and if it does climb up then once again it is likely to find stiff resistance in the region of 5200-5250. Technically now 5200 is a stiff resistance to deal with and the downside is now open. The market has generated a sell on daily time frame and should now proceed down closer to around 4800 zones in the days to come. The support for the Nifty is at 4950 and resistance at 5200. From a trading point of view I would short all rallies until 5200 for a down move”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “Markets moved higher during the initial part of the week but showed some positive momentum to register a weekly high of 17210/5169. However, indices could not sustain near this level as they were nearing strong "Horizontal Line" resistance of 17300/5177. On Friday's session after reversing from mentioned resistance level, mainly due to sell - off in Banking, Metal and Oil & Gas counters, we are now witnessing a "Rising Wedge" continuous pattern. This pattern has a negative implication. The breakdown will be confirmed if indices sustain below Friday's low of 16830/5046. Subsequently, indices may correct to test support level of 16488/4942. In addition, we are observing a candlestick pattern which resembles a "Spinning Top". The said pattern will be confirmed ONLY if indices break and sustains below 16488/4942 level. In this case, indices can test recent bottom of 15765/4720. This pattern will get negated once prices break high of the pattern which is 17210/5169. However, the positive crossover in Weekly RSI and Stochastic oscillator is still intact. The impact of this crossover may be nullified once indices break 16488/4942 level. On the upside, last week high of 17210/5169 would act as strong resistance. A move beyond this level, indices may test 17300-17600/5200-5280 levels”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Next week is full of major domestic events with IIP, Inflation, RBI meet and Advance Tax data being among the important ones. It would be wise to remain cautious and be stock specific”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has been trading in the range of 4920 and 5170 for last few days. We expect this range bound movement would be continuing for another few days. If Nifty breaches 4920, the short term trend would become negative and it may further go down to 4800. However, the short term crucial resistance of Nifty lies at 5230. A breach of 5230 would open the gate for 5320. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5020 and the resistance is 5110. If Nifty breaks 5020, it may further go down to 4970 and then 4920. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5110, the level of 5170-5230 would become the next target”.
IIFL (WEEKLY WRAP): “The rally for Nifty came to stand still near 5,150 as profit booking on Friday trading session. However the medium term trend for the markets still remains positive and dip towards 4,930 should be construed as retracement rather than any major trend reversal. Market participants are favouring light positions ahead of key events like RBI policy meet and IIP numbers. We expect Indian market to continue to outperform its global peers and could be heading back to 5350 after recent correction”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Last week Nifty shut on a marginal positive note @ 5060 and up by 20 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed neutral candle stick pattern, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4999 and made a low of 4943 and made a high of 5169.25 then finally closed sideways at 5059.50. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signalling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed above the 20 day moving average (4998) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to positive. Stochastics trending higher at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4945-5250. The next area of resistance is around at 5200-5280. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bullish trading on weekly chart having supports at 4950-4850 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4940 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5200-5280 and supports at 4950-4850. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17250-17520 and supports at 16490-16250. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9935-10170 and supports at 9515-9360”.
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