"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (04.08.2011)"

FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 869.69 crore on Wednesday, the 3rd August 2011(prov. fig.);
The BSE Sensex lost 169.34 points or 0.94% to settle at 17,940.55, its lowest closing level since 23 June 2011. The Sensex fell 104.13 points at the day's high of 18,005.76 in afternoon trade. The index dropped 250.39 points at the day's low of 17,859.50 in early afternoon trade. The S&P CNX Nifty plunged 51.75 points or 0.95% to settle at 5,404.80, its lowest closing level since 23 June 2011. The Nifty hit low of 5,378.85 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.33% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.66%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was negative. On BSE, 1,720 shares fell and 1,151 shares rose and a total of 109 shares remained unchanged. From the 30 share Sensex pack, 20 stocks fell and the rest rose.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES:Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the red following weak Asian cues and cover losses made on Wednesday. Among the sectoral indices, Banks and Metals could do well while Auto and Capital Goods could underperform”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, Nifty witnessed a weak show and after weakening the momentum in last session, today again drifted into red zone and closed with deep cuts. Nifty regained its vital support of 5400, after losing it in early session; this may be a trigger point for recovery. On account of weakness, Nifty for the sixth successive day closed below the vital support levels of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5532, 5547, 5525 & 5580 levels; this may continue to spoil the buying sentiments in forthcoming sessions. On account of weakness in small cap & mid cap, today Bears again dominated the market, because of which, Indices closed with weak market breadth. This may strengthen selling sentiments in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a little higher level of 19.48%, indicating more volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 38.86 levels and MACD remained below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may be in range bound trade with some recovery in coming session”.
BONANZA ONLINE:Nifty opened on gap down note for consecutive 2nd day and closed in red. Nifty has some support in 5300-5350 zone and resistance in 5500-5600 zone. Nifty may trade in this range for some days. For Daily Purpose, Trend deciding level is 5450. If Nifty shows strength above 5450 levels, then rally to 5500/5550/5600 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5450 levels then selling pressure till 5400/5350/5300 may also be seen”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow.  Trade short in Nifty below 5,400 levels, with stop loss at 5420 targeting 5380-5,350 levels. Alternatively, trade long above 5,420 levels with stop loss at 5400 targeting 5450 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): Nifty during the day came down below 5,400 and closed fortunately above it. Nifty is having support at 5,343 and 5,327 and the resistance is there at 5,445 and 5,525 levels. Dow futures are trading in green and so we may see some bound back tomorrow but the overall outlook remains weak and so investors should be cautious at higher levels”.
PINC RESEARCH: Another day of decline confirms that the weakness that has started from 5700 still holds. Today, it also broke the support of 5440, which was the 61.8% retracement of the up move from 5250 to 5740. The next support now comes at 5350 (80% retracement) and then 5250 which is the medium term support. As we had stated yesterday, the trend is likely to remain weak in the immediate future, as there has been no violation of any important levels on the upside. A sustainable recovery is now only possible if the Nifty manages to conquer the zone of 5600-5650 on the upside. Until that happens, the Nifty is likely to remain subdued with a negative bias. The technical indicators have further slid into the oversold territory indicating that pull back could be round the corner”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): The market unfolded again as expected and has closed right on our support like a dot. Technically the market is still weak and has not displayed any signs of strength so far except that it is stretched on the downside and so I would be ready to look for a buying opportunity in case the market gaps down and closer to our supports. So far that is my trading strategy. The support for the Nifty is at 5358-5355-5312 and resistance at 5460. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 17806-17642 and resistance at 18140”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): For the second consecutive session, our benchmark indices opened lower in-line with Global cues. Looking at the hourly chart, it seems that markets found some support near 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of 18,000/5,400. On the daily chart, we are witnessing a pattern which resembles ‘A Bullish Hammer’. This pattern will be confirmed only if indices cross yesterday’s high of 18,006/5,423. In this scenario, indices may test 18,080-18,150/5,445-5,465 levels. Any close above these levels, indices may test 18,440/5,552 level. On the downside, 17,859-17,800/5,378-5,345 levels may act as support for coming trading session”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani):The undercurrent remains fragile amid persistent declines for equity markets around the world. Investors are jittery about the health of the global economy amid mounting concerns about the sovereign debt problems in the US and euro-zone. Also, recent economic statistics from the US have been pretty downbeat, fuelling fears of an accelerated slowdown in the world’s largest economy. Risk aversion is on the rise, with gold hitting new record high and investors flocking to other safe havens like bonds and Swiss francs. Hopefully, we will see a rebound after a two-day sell-off. The European markets had already recovered and US stock futures were also positive. The monthly US jobs data on Friday will be an important event to watch out for”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:Nifty has corrected almost 5.68% from its recent high 5702.25 in a time span of six trading sessions. Now the short term crucial support of Nifty lies at 5325. If Nifty breaches 5325, the short term trend would become negative and it may further go down to 5210. However some leading indicators (like Stochastic & RSI) are giving oversold signal of Nifty. So a short term pull back rally to 5520 can not be ruled out. Traders are advised to maintain a stop loss at 5330 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5375 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5440. If Nifty breaks 5375, it may further go down to 5350 and then 5330. However, if it is able to sustain above 5440, the level of 5470–5520 would become the next target”.
BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra):Nifty opened on gap down note for consecutive second day and closed in red.  Nifty has some support in 5,300-5,350 zone and resistance in 5,500-5,600 zone. Nifty may trade in this range for some days. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 5,450. If Nifty shows strength above 5,450 levels, then rally to 5,500/5,550/5,600 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,450 levels then selling pressure till 5,400/5,350/5,300 may also be seen”.
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES: “The intermediate short term trend continues to remain very pathetic as nifty closed below its important support level of 5440. And going forward if nifty future starts trading consistently below 5440 then 5370–5330 is possible very soon. For the Sensex @ 17940, strong support exits at 17750 levels and on trading below this point in the near could make the index more weak and could drift further lower while resistance seen at 18005. BANK NIFTY @ 10686 has also turned very negative but strong support seen at 10550 and only breach of 105000 could turn bank index very negative till then there any decline could around the support level is a buying opportunity from a trading perspective”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART:On daily charts, we can observe that for the whole session Nifty has been trading in the weak zone of 5,430 to 5,380. For the coming trading session, immediate support for Nifty is seen at 5,370 levels while a breach from these levels can drag it towards the lower levels of 5,350/5,325. On higher side, 5,430 is immediate resistance for the index. If it sustains decisively above these levels then some pull back can be seen towards 5,480/5,496 levels”.
HEM SECURITIES:Key benchmark indices trimmed losses in late trade as most bank stocks reversed initial losses. Intraday volatility was high. For tomorrow, markets are expected to be down”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES:Nifty’s immediate resistance on the upside comes at 5,460-5,550 levels. And supports stand at 5,350-5,200. Although Nifty is still in a consolidating range but traders need to be cautious if Nifty starts another leg of downtrend”.
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