FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 471.09 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 99.02 crore on Friday, the 12th August 2011(prov. fig.)
The BSE Sensex lost 219.77 points or 1.29% to 16,839.63, its lowest closing level since 9 June 2010. The index fell 274.84 points at the day's low of 16784.56 in early afternoon trade. The Sensex gained 187.48 points at the day's high of 17,246.88 in early trade, its highest level since Wednesday, 10 August 2011. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 65.35 points or 1.27% to 5,072.95 its lowest closing level since 9 August 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 5,194.45 in intraday trade, its highest level since Wednesday, 10 August 2011. The Nifty hit a low of 5,053.35 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.46% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.44%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The BSE Sensex lost 219.77 points or 1.29% to 16,839.63, its lowest closing level since 9 June 2010. The index fell 274.84 points at the day's low of 16784.56 in early afternoon trade. The Sensex gained 187.48 points at the day's high of 17,246.88 in early trade, its highest level since Wednesday, 10 August 2011. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 65.35 points or 1.27% to 5,072.95 its lowest closing level since 9 August 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 5,194.45 in intraday trade, its highest level since Wednesday, 10 August 2011. The Nifty hit a low of 5,053.35 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.46% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.44%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was negative. On BSE, 1,585 shares fell while 1,257 shares rose and a total of 111 shares remained unchanged. The market breadth was strong earlier in the day. Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 24 fell and the rest rose.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “With the Sensex/Nifty continuing their downtrend, we continue with our go slow approach on the long side till we see signs of sustainable strength. Immediate Nifty supports to watch for the coming week are at 5054-4946”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “Very clearly, the Indian markets would continue to take cues from the global markets. After the selloff in the current week, a relief rally cannot be ruled out. However, as we have been consistently indicating in earlier notes that inflation needs to peak out for markets to stage a durable upmove. Nevertheless, the recent sell-off has made valuations reasonable for long-term investing. At this juncture, the markets are also expecting that the government would move decisively on reforms (land acquisition, FDI in retail and GST). Any concrete action on reforms would be taken positively by the markets. We are positive on consumer, media, private sector banking and large IT stocks. We remain selective on the capital goods and infrastructure sector, logistics and oil and gas. We remain negative on cement and auto”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (SHRIKANT CHOUHAN): “Technically the level of 5,240/17,770 will act as a major hurdle for the market. On the lower side 5,050-5030 will act as a major support for the market and dismissal of the 5,000 may result into quick sell off to 4800 minimum and maximum to 4700 levels. Closing above the level of 5,250 can take index to the level of 5400. US markets especially S&P may fall by 10% more from current levels where it has proper and strong support (1090/1060). If that happens then we may expect 4,800 achievable on Nifty in near term. On the higher side 5,350/5,400 will act as a biggest hurdle for the market for next few weeks or even months. Long term investors can certainly look for index stocks to buy around 4,800 levels. Outcome of Industrial numbers in Europe and US will decide further course of the markets. Gold has moved above USD 1,700 on back of US debt crisis. Crude slipped below USD 90 which is indeed positive for the markets. Ongoing Parliament session will keep the hopes alive for the Reforms. Interest rates are close to peak. All these factors can bring optimism back in Indian Market”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after a break of last session, today again indices failed to inch higher and lower highs and higher lows pattern was continued in today’s session. In a range bound session, today’s upmove was limited and selling in heavyweights forced Nifty to close below a vital support of 5150. Nifty for the eleventh successive session closed below the vital support levels of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5268, 5370, 5484 & 5564 levels; this may continue to spoil the recovery sentiments in forthcoming sessions. On account of weakness in large cap, small cap & mid cap, today Bulls again yielded to bears, because of which, Indices closed with negative market breadth. This may support selling sentiments in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed after correcting to 29.09, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 31.46 levels and MACD remained below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may witness some temporary relief”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty made long legged Doji candlestick pattern on weekly charts, which shows that Bulls and bears have been indecisive in the week. Sentiment to a large extent will depend upon development in Global equity markets from America and Europe. Sentiment in Nifty may get weaker if it starts maintaining below 5050 levels. Otherwise, some recovery may be seen. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5050. If Nifty shows strength above 5050 levels then we may see rally 5150/5225/5350 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5050 levels then selling pressure till 4950/4875/4800/4750 may also be seen”.
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Buy | 5060-5080 | 5120-5140 | 5040 |
For the Week | Sell | 5160-5200 | 5100-5050 | 5220 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Nifty continues to trade in a bearish to sideways trend. Global developments are playing a pivotal role in sentiment preparation. Nifty is expected to be volatile within the range of 4,950-5,250”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to negative note tomorrow. Trade short in Nifty below 5,080 levels, with stop loss at 5,100, targeting 5,050-5,030 levels. Alternatively, trade long in Nifty above 5,100, with stop loss at 5,080 targeting 5,130-5,150 levels”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Its topsy-turvy as the markets are behaving as per the classical drunkyard theory. There is high risk aversion and therefore the initial reaction is movement towards the best rated treasuries pulling the yields down there. There is no consensus on the quantification and duration of the Europe problem and therefore the huge volatility. The European sovereign debt crisis could set off a severe liquidity crisis in the European financial system, given high exposure of European Banks to sovereign debt of PIIGS countries. As expected, IT and Corporates with exposure to the western markets sold off heavily this week. Over ownership of this sector also played spoil sport. Some more weakness is possible in IT stocks before it starts becoming attractive. We continue to remain bullish on the Domestic Auto, FMCG & healthcare space. The price correction is over to the extent of 80% generally in the market but time correction is still to go. The chances of a pause on the monetary front has increased substantially given the global problem, though, RBI still has inflation as its focus at the moment. Food inflation again proved to be a dampener. IIP came in at higher than expected on account of skewness in the capital goods data otherwise slow down is quite apparent. Markets are behaving on sentiments. That domestic institutions have shown good support during the panic times makes us believe that investors can start nibbling from here”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Its topsy-turvy as the markets are behaving as per the classical drunkyard theory. There is high risk aversion and therefore the initial reaction is movement towards the best rated treasuries pulling the yields down there. There is no consensus on the quantification and duration of the Europe problem and therefore the huge volatility. The European sovereign debt crisis could set off a severe liquidity crisis in the European financial system, given high exposure of European Banks to sovereign debt of PIIGS countries. As expected, IT and Corporates with exposure to the western markets sold off heavily this week. Over ownership of this sector also played spoil sport. Some more weakness is possible in IT stocks before it starts becoming attractive. We continue to remain bullish on the Domestic Auto, FMCG & healthcare space. The price correction is over to the extent of 80% generally in the market but time correction is still to go. The chances of a pause on the monetary front has increased substantially given the global problem, though, RBI still has inflation as its focus at the moment. Food inflation again proved to be a dampener. IIP came in at higher than expected on account of skewness in the capital goods data otherwise slow down is quite apparent. Markets are behaving on sentiments. That domestic institutions have shown good support during the panic times makes us believe that investors can start nibbling from here”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty is expected to continue to trade volatile and global cues are likely to set the direction for further directional movement of Nifty. The immediate support for the index is at 5050 and breach of this level can push Nifty to test 4950 levels. On upsides, 5230/5330 should provide a major resistance. Bank Nifty continued to trade volatile breaching important support of 10000 levels on Tuesday. However it recovered marginally and tested 10500 mark couple of times while finally closing at 10170 levels. Pressure was rampant in both public and private sector space. Immediate important support levels for the Bank Nifty lies around 10000/9800 while resistance can be seen around 10600”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Indian markets recovered from lows of 4951 last week triggered initially by short covering. Crucial support of 4900 in the index led to a strong recovery mostly due to closure of short positions. However, Nifty will face resistance at 5230 and then at 5300 level. Among call options the 5300 strike has the highest open interest of above 50 lakh shares, making it a resistance in the short term. On the put side, maximum option concentration has shifted at 5000 level having open interest of more than 70 lakh shares. IV slightly cooled off from its Peak at 32%, however, IV is expected to rise in the forthcoming sessions. The Implied Volatility (IV) of ATM call options closed lower at 22.82% while the ATM IV of put options ended at 24.10%.VIX still trading in the higher range after breakout indicates higher volatility. The put-call ratio of open interest increased from 0.88 to 1.08 last week indicating more put writing in lower strikes hinting support at lower levels. The range of 5000-5300 will remain crucial in the near term, and the movement is expected to remain sideways with negative bias”.
SMC ONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Indian markets recovered from lows of 4951 last week triggered initially by short covering. Crucial support of 4900 in the index led to a strong recovery mostly due to closure of short positions. However, Nifty will face resistance at 5230 and then at 5300 level. Among call options the 5300 strike has the highest open interest of above 50 lakh shares, making it a resistance in the short term. On the put side, maximum option concentration has shifted at 5000 level having open interest of more than 70 lakh shares. IV slightly cooled off from its Peak at 32%, however, IV is expected to rise in the forthcoming sessions. The Implied Volatility (IV) of ATM call options closed lower at 22.82% while the ATM IV of put options ended at 24.10%.VIX still trading in the higher range after breakout indicates higher volatility. The put-call ratio of open interest increased from 0.88 to 1.08 last week indicating more put writing in lower strikes hinting support at lower levels. The range of 5000-5300 will remain crucial in the near term, and the movement is expected to remain sideways with negative bias”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market unfolded as expected finding stiff resistance at 5200 like a dot and the market caving in thereafter and in the process also closing below the crucial 5100 mark. Technically the market is weak unless it opens up with a gap above 5100. The support for the Nifty is at 5000-4778 and resistance at 5250-5340. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 15986 and resistance at 17220-17500-17737. Technically the bar generated for the week is an indecisive bar with the low of the bar having some technical significance. Secondly the market is a bit over stretched on the short side and so as long as the low holds...the market could see some support. We have ahead of us a truncated week as Monday is Holiday. Technically we must consider the market as week sliding down towards 4778 unless it opens with a bull gap of above 5100 and climbs up and if that happens we could see some upside to maybe around 5300. Otherwise it is down. From a trading point of view I would like to sell all rallies until the market up with a bull gap of above 5100”.
ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “On the Weekly chart, we are observing a 'Horizontal Trend Line' resistance at 17300 / 5180 level. The ADX (14) line has moved up from the last week's level of 18.50 to the current week's level of 20.75 along with – DI (Negative Directional Index) moving upwards. The Gap area formed on August 5, 2011, in the range of 17360 to 17665/5230 to 5325 would prove to be a crucial resistance in the near term. Markets opened with a huge downside gap as negative sentiments continued to sway across global markets. Due to extreme pessimism, our benchmark indices did not even manage to cross last Friday's high of 17358/5230 and collapsed to test the support level of 16650/4950. We are now observing a "Horizontal Trend Line" around 17300/5180 level, which may act as a strong resistance in the coming trading sessions. This horizontal trend line, coupled with the low of the gap area, is now expected to act as a strong resistance zone for the markets. This resistance band is at 17300-17360/5180-5230 levels. As a result, the trading range for indices in the coming week is expected to be from 17300 to 16430/5180-4945. If indices manage to cross 17360/5230 level, then they are likely to rally towards the next resistance level of 17665/5325. A violation of 16430/4945 level along with the ADX line rising above 20-21 level may attract immense selling pressure, which can drag indices to lower levels of 16000/4800. We advise traders to stay light on their positions and trade with proper stop losses. Investors can use the dip towards 4800 to enter (partial buying advised) in counters with strong fundamentals and good long-term prospects”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Fund flows in the Indian markets have not been that bad considering the intensity of the sell-off. The Government too is trying its best to address the governance deficit. But, inflation continues to be a big headache with food inflation flaring in end-July. On the macro-economic front, exports continue to be robust but might moderate in the coming months owing to slowdown in the US and Europe. Tax collections and credit growth have also help up quite well amid signs of moderation in industrial output. Meeting the fiscal deficit target (4.6% of GDP) will take some doing as GDP projections have been scaled down and disinvestment is in a limbo”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The Indian market indices remained extremely volatile, copying the peers. Even though the market bounced back considerably from the intra-week low, the indices failed to make any major advance. The trend is expected to remain volatile in the week ahead also – any attempt to recover will find pressure from the upper levels. The market is expected to remain volatile in the week ahead also – with a downward bias. Any effort to make any effective upside will happen only if the NSE Nifty manages a close above 5230 – even though it is an extreme expectation at this point of time. The first resistance for the week ahead is seen at 5335. On downside, 4950 is expected to be the critical support. Any fall below this will find strong Support at 4830. The chance for some bounce back is not ruled out completely from the lower support”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets closed with significant losses this week and barring auto, all sectoral indices and both benchmark indices closed negative. This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5300-5400 in the upper side and 4900-4800 in the lower side”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Nifty opened at the highest point of the day at 5,194, which was the resistance for the last four trading session and again saw some selling pressure to make an intraday low at 5,052 levels. Later at consolidated between 5,060-5,098 to give a close at 5,072 levels indicating weakness in coming sessions. 5,200 remains a major hurdle for nifty where most of the supply is seen coming in the market. Immediate support on downside remains at 4,960- 5,140 levels and major resistance on upside comes at 5,330 levels”.
UNICON WEEKLY: “Indian markets traded on weak global cues. Global cues remain uncertain in the coming week also as the world worries over the US credit downgrading. The weakness in the markets is likely to continue till the expiry of the August series. Results of the major companies have been below expectations in this quarter. On the derivatives front, put writing is seen at 5000, 5200 and call writing is seen at 5300-5500, suggesting 5000-5300 to be the trading zone for the August series. The trend remains downward though and investors are advised not to carry heavy long positions in the markets. Metal and realty space needs to be avoided in short term. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signalling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close below the 20 day moving average (5400) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4950-5200. The next area of resistance is around at 5200-5350. So Nifty appears to be sideways to bearish trading on weekly chart having supports at 4950-4800 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4940 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5200-5350 and supports at 4950-4800. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17275-17700 and supports at 16440-16000. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10500-10800 and supports at 9935-9655”.
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