The BSE Sensex was up 286.11 points or 1.55% to 18,722.30, its highest closing level since 8 July 2011. The Sensex jumped 310.87 points at the day's high of 18,747.06 in late trade. The index rose 97.24 points at the day's low of 18,533.43 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was up 92.35 points or 1.67% to 5,633.95, its highest closing level since 8 July 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 5,642.20 in intraday trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.25% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.82%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1,715 shares advanced and 1,250 shares declined and a total of 121 shares remained unchanged.
FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 444.91 crore on Feiday, the 22nd July 2011(prov. fig.)
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
DANI SECURITIES: “The market could be choppy next week ahead of the expiry on Thursday, 28 July 2011, of the near-month July 2011 futures & options (F&O) contracts. The key event of the week is the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Tuesday, 26 July 2011. The RBI is seen raising its key lending rate by 25 basis points at its first quarter review of the monetary policy 2011-12 on Tuesday, 26 July 2011, to tame inflation, which remains much above the central bank's perceived comfort level of 5% to 6%”.
HDFC SECURITIES: “The market could be choppy next week ahead of the expiry on Thursday, July 28, 2011, of the near-month July 2011 futures & options (F&O) contracts. The key event of the week is the RBI monetary policy review on Tuesday, July 26, 2011. The RBI is seen raising its key lending rate by 25 bps at its first quarter review of the monetary policy FY12, to tame inflation, which remains much above the central bank's perceived comfort level of 5-6%. As the crucial corporate earnings season gathers steam, investors will closely watch the post-Q1 June 2011 result management commentary to gauge the future earnings outlook at a time when Indian firms are witnessing cost pressures amid rising interest rates and staff costs”.
KOTAK SECURITIES (Srikant Chouhan): “For the coming week, Nifty is expected to remain choppy in the range of 5,450 and 5,740. Traders should look for initiating longs only above 5,630. Important resistance to watch for the week is of 5,700 on a close basis. Trading above the level of 5,650 will be attracting short covering in the market and in that case markets can extend its gains minimum to the level of 5,700 and maximum 5,740 on higher side. Conquering the level of 5,770 will be hard landing on the bears, extending gains further to the tune of 5,920 and 6,050 on the higher side. However, if Nifty slips towards 5,530 early in the week might find a soft patch, prices can turn higher, but extending the slippage beyond the level of 5,500 will find a rough patch exposing the crucial supports of 5,430 and 5,350 on the lower side. Market reversal stands at 5,550 on close basis. Decisive close below 5,550 will signal potential reversal in trend. Strategy for the week: Traders should look for initiating longs above 5,630 for target of 5,740 with stop at 5,600 on close basis. Option traders can look for initiating put positions around 5750 levels with stop of 5,770 on closing basis. Infra and Power stocks to remain in lime light in this week”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty witnessed a fabulous show and after a dull move of last session, regained its lost pitch. Not only Nifty regained its crucial supports of 5550, 5600 and 5610, but also exhibited its solidarity by closing near high point of the day. On account of today’s burst, Nifty ably closed the week on positive note and thus kept the positive momentum intact. Nifty reclaimed the vital support levels of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA; this may support the buying sentiments in forthcoming sessions. Near month future of Nifty closed at premium w.r.t. spot that may support buying in coming session. After losing their control in last session, Bulls roared to outplay bears and recaptured the control of the market from bears. Indices closed with firm market breadth. This may offer support to the buying sentiments in coming sessions. Nifty managed to close above the vital supports of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5580, 5606, 5510 & 5518. In today’s session, VIX closed at a modest level of 17.91%, indicating less than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 55.85 levels and MACD moved above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may continue its positive momentum with lesser volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “As we had mentioned that the level of 5582 on the upward side will play the crucial role for the coming days in the Nifty so the Nifty has closed above that i.e.5634 will give an opportunity to enter into the market with the stop loss of below 5520. Next session’s range for the Nifty may be in between 5605-5693 and the resistance may be at 5726 and the crucial resistance may be at 5752 if it breaks the level of 5693.The support for the Nifty may be at 5582 if it breaks the level of 5605 and the key support for the Nifty will be 5553. The range for the Nifty for this week may be in between 5582-5740 and if it breaches the level of 5740 then the resistance for the Nifty may be at @5832-5862 and the crucial resistance will be at 5912. The support for the Nifty may be at 5526 if it breaks the level of 5526 on the downward side and the key support for the Nifty will stands at 5440”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing selling pressure previous week, Bulls managed to show strength from 5530 levels. Nifty is still trading in 5550-5650 zone. Further strength may be seen if Nifty manages to show strength above 5650 levels else profit booking may also be seen. Nifty July future expiry is due in this week and volatility may be continuing. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5650. If Nifty shows strength above 5650 levels then we may see rally 5700/5750/5800/5850 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5650 levels then profit booking till
Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
For Monday | Sell | 5660-5680 | 5620-5590 | 5700 |
For the Week | Sell | 5680-5730 | 5600-5550 | 5755 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Nifty managed to close above 5,600 with considerable gains, however 5,650 levels continue to be a worry area for the bulls. Until Nifty closes above 5,650 levels, the possibility of retracing to support levels exists. Good support exists at 5,490-5,500 levels. Monday will witness results of heavyweight Reliance and NTPC. Reliance results are likely to influence the market trend in short term. Nifty is likely to consolidate within 5,500-5,700 range”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty from 5,630 levels, else around 5600 levels, with stoploss at 5,580 for targets 5,650-5,670 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty is having resistance at 5,650 above it can move towards 5,717 (200 DMA) above 5,741 and 5,778 while the support is there at 5,579 (100 DMA) and 5509 (50 DMA). One should be careful as RBI is meeting coming Tuesday and if the rate hike is above the expected 50 bps then we may see downside in the market when 25 bps is already discounted in the market”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Our markets have clearly outperformed as investors held on to our markets with marginal outflow over the last four trading sessions. Market rallied on the last session with clear outperformance from Telecom. Some of the Mid-cap IT names (Mindtree, NIIT Technolgies, KPIT Cummins) had a good run after they reported good numbers. Food inflation is showing a softening trend and with liquidity pressure having reduced due to lower credit offtake, we believe that RBI could possibly pause this time around (atleast assign a 50% probability that there could be a pause). Domestic telecom services providers have started raising prices, which is a good sign for the telecom industry after series of price cuts witnessed over the last several quarters. Overall market sentiment at the retail level has not revived significantly. We continue to believe that the markets would find it difficult to break out decisively over the 5700 levels in the immediate term. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5567 & 5497 levels and would face resistance at 5655 & 5740 levels”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Our markets have clearly outperformed as investors held on to our markets with marginal outflow over the last four trading sessions. Market rallied on the last session with clear outperformance from Telecom. Some of the Mid-cap IT names (Mindtree, NIIT Technolgies, KPIT Cummins) had a good run after they reported good numbers. Food inflation is showing a softening trend and with liquidity pressure having reduced due to lower credit offtake, we believe that RBI could possibly pause this time around (atleast assign a 50% probability that there could be a pause). Domestic telecom services providers have started raising prices, which is a good sign for the telecom industry after series of price cuts witnessed over the last several quarters. Overall market sentiment at the retail level has not revived significantly. We continue to believe that the markets would find it difficult to break out decisively over the 5700 levels in the immediate term. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5567 & 5497 levels and would face resistance at 5655 & 5740 levels”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Call base at 5600 and 5700 strikes has seen continuous accumulation till Friday’s session when sharp upsides triggered panic closure in these positions. On downsides, 5500 Put continued to show strength with more than 1 crore shares. With approaching settlement, Nifty may see volatile movement next week. The Nifty may remain in the range of 5500-5750 in the near term. Long positions can be assumed at dips with final stop loss placed around 5585. Level of 5660 may act as a stiff resistance level in the near term while the next important resistance can be experienced around 5720 levels. Trade long only if the Bank Nifty sustains above 11400 levels for target of 11650. Below 11400 levels, it may test 11150”.
SMC ONLINE(WISE MONEY): “Last week was range bound in comparison with recent past, as Nifty traded in the narrow range of 120 points, with weekly high of 5648 and 5530 as weekly low. Markets remained stock specific and mid cap and small stocks outperformed the large cap stocks. This range bound movement may get directional trigger after RBI policy announcement on 26 July. However the 5650-5700 level will remain crucial resistance for bulls, and only close above 5700 will change the trend. On the contrary, the index has a strong support at 5500 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 0.97 levels. The options open interest concentration on call side is much heavier as compared with last few expiries as 5600, 5700 and 5800 strike holds open interest of 1 crore each. Among put options, the 5500-strike, put option has the total open interest of 1.11 crore shares which is the highest open interest among all put options. Option concentration indicates strong support around 5500 and selling pressure around 5600 in the current expiry, however if 5600 is broken in the current expiry we may see expiry closer to 5700.The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 16.49%, while the average IV of put options closed at 16.43%. Nifty is expected to break the range of 5650-5700 in coming weeks and the sharp move may cause the rise in option volatility”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market bounce back with vengeance as expected and has closed in the green and interestingly halting at our resistance like a dot. Technically the market is still in a typical sideways zone and we may see stiff resistance merging around the 5700 mark. 5580 is also a strong support to work with. The support for the Nifty is at 5580-5532 and resistance at 5640-5680-5700. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 18600 and resistance at 18827-18930. We now head into an F&O expiry. The market is expected to be range bound with stiff resistance coming around 5700-5725 zones and strong support emerging around 5500. From a trading point of view I would be cautious and be in profit booking mode as 5700-5725 is still a stiff resistance to work with”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “A fairly listless week ended with a bang, helping the main indices gain almost 1% each. But, overall things remain pretty choppy and uncertain. There could be further advance if global markets remain supportive. The real test will be the 200-DMA levels. The fact that we will have a RBI policy review and F&O expiry next week will make proceedings even more interesting. Corporate results will keep pouring as well. A slew of global economic statistics are also due next week. All in all, next week promises to be action packed”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Nifty has been trading in the range of 5440 and 5750 for last one month. We expect this range bound movement of Nifty would be continuing for another few days. If Nifty breaks 5440, it may go down further and take support near 5300 in the short term. However, a breach of 5750 would open the gate for 5900 in the extreme short term For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5580 and the resistance is 5660. If Nifty breaks 5580, it may further go down to 5510 and then 5470. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5660, the level of 5750-5800 would become the next target”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets made moderate gains this week and the Nifty crossed its psychologically important level of 5600. The Sensex gained 0.8% while the Nifty closed with 0.9% gains during the week. This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5750-5850 in the upper side and 5500-5400 in the lower side”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “The week has undoubtedly ended with a positive bias. If Nifty is able to cross 5654, we can see a rally till about 5718, where 200 day simple moving average is placed. 5740 is where the top made on 8th July is placed. This makes 5718-5740 a tough resistance zone. A decisive crossover of this zone will be very bullish and can take the benchmark to 5944 subsequently, which is the calendar year 2011 high made in April. On the downside, 5532, this week's low, is the immediate support to watch out for. Traders are advised to hold on to the long positions with the stop loss of 5532. Profit booking is advised as Nifty approaches 5718-5740 resistance zone. Fresh positions can be built once 5740 is crossed decisively”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “Next Week the market could be choppy because of the expiry of the near month futures & options (F&O) contracts on July 28, 2011 and Review of monetary policy by Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) on 26 July 2011. For the coming week, Nifty will face immediate resistance at 5660; if it breaches these levels then 5730 will act as major resistance for it. On lower side the index is having immediate support at 5540. If it trades below these levels then next support is seen at 5496/5470. The fact that we will have RBI policy review and F&O expiry next week will make proceedings even more sensitive. Corporate results and Global economic statistics will also affect the market sentiments. Hence, stock specific trading is recommended with strict stop loss and longs can be initiated above the levels of 5660”.
HEM SECURITIES: “The market could be choppy next week ahead of the expiry on Thursday, 28 July 2011, of the futures & options (F&O) contracts. The key event of the week is the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Tuesday, 26 July 2011. The RBI is seen raising its key lending rate by 25 basis points at its first quarter review of the monetary policy 2011-12, to tame inflation, which remains much above the central bank's perceived comfort level of 5% to 6%. For Monday the markets are expected to be upward”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Going forward, Nifty has resistance at 5,680-5750 and supports at 5,550-5,460. Overall, view on the markets stays neutral to positive. Nifty is seen consolidating between 5,550 and 5,650 since eight trading session now”.
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